tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37277402799803887672024-03-05T23:47:12.930-05:00North Jersey Weather OutlookFrom Global Warming, northeast storms, ski forecasts, fall foliage, interesting weather photos, winter weather outlooks, area statistics, and even some extras. It's all about the top half of Jersey and what your really interested in...Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.comBlogger427125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-45349020034768385472016-01-22T19:17:00.002-05:002016-01-22T19:17:54.412-05:00Blizzard 2016<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Well. I was wrong. The NAM was the only model showing BIG snow for the past several days and everyone laughed at it essentially. All the other models have now given into this idea, or at least mostly. This is now a major snowstorm for us. Historic? I'm not sure about that and honestly I don't think we know until Sunday. We are in that battle ground where the forecast is very rough. </div>
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First off here is a look at the simulated radar from a high resolution model for tomorrow. The heavy mesoscale bands reach into most of the state and these suckers can drop snow upwards of 3" per hour! These bands will literally stall out somewhere near the top of the state before pulling south and back out to sea. Whoever gets these bands will see significantly more snow than those who miss out just by a few miles.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkzn6D8VmC9FFMNpqDy0OvO14xpm0uKcZ9nKwxg6F_Lv_JTlCk_UOccs1JzPakZfSloyJunyPDmV3TU4gw6McnI9FZmwuPKELMR56b7S0ZLv3u1ImP4VsQYdCJUMmHDzidAn20x2WPTNCv/s1600/b.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkzn6D8VmC9FFMNpqDy0OvO14xpm0uKcZ9nKwxg6F_Lv_JTlCk_UOccs1JzPakZfSloyJunyPDmV3TU4gw6McnI9FZmwuPKELMR56b7S0ZLv3u1ImP4VsQYdCJUMmHDzidAn20x2WPTNCv/s400/b.png" width="348" /></a></div>
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Okay, next up. The QPF or total liquid precip from the 18z NAM. It puts down nearly 2.5" of liquid over north Jersey. With snow ratios ranging from 12:1 to 14:1 it's staggering amounts of snow. I think this is overdone, but even if 1.5" of QPF falls that is still 18"+. No other models puts down nearly as much liquid so I am going to be conservative in my snow map. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigr7n9SV3lec6vzLguvrfatObvKpFYWVDzKFX5aAfT1VK3fuNgHS2KsuGOBcKDPygWwPV68p-Bdvkim_3fGPgoeGZQj_OGyCQFzvGpZCpSlaTF2rjFwKZkXwya6W4En_ii6Sv38hNGauvH/s1600/c.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigr7n9SV3lec6vzLguvrfatObvKpFYWVDzKFX5aAfT1VK3fuNgHS2KsuGOBcKDPygWwPV68p-Bdvkim_3fGPgoeGZQj_OGyCQFzvGpZCpSlaTF2rjFwKZkXwya6W4En_ii6Sv38hNGauvH/s400/c.png" width="382" /></a></div>
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And here it is. The snow map. Yes I'm being conservative with these numbers. Any shift in storm track by just a few miles could mean nearly doubling your expected snowfall. Tomorrow is going to be rough with strong winds, white out conditions, drifting snow, and overall dangerous conditions STATE WIDE!</div>
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Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-37733936528730246192016-01-20T19:00:00.002-05:002016-01-20T19:00:32.925-05:00Snow Storm January 22nd to 23rd<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
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Yes, I know. I've been slacking off here on the blog. This winter has essentially been nonexistent until just recently, so I have finally come out of hiding. I'm sure you have heard A LOT of hype about a major snowstorm heading in our direction and I've issued my first map of the season!</div>
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First off the models have trended the storm south with previous runs along with their ensemble members. Ever since this system showed up on the maps I knew this would be the end result which is why I haven't even bothered posting about it. The high pressure to the north is just way to strong to allow the crippling snow fall to make it further north than Trenton. </div>
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Better data will be coming in after mid night and my map will change, but as of now I don't think it will change much. A shift in the storm just 10 or 20 miles could mean doubling the numbers, or cutting them in half. I'm going to make another post tomorrow night with the last round of data and finalize my snow map. For now this is how I see it...</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg74fas1ue-5rzHClILy9pVuvmAzrcI0h1mHLqFLvSx5ob-l8mtO3MqtAoCQN344jqMVcj9MFrFA8GeSGF9RGPheWemE0_j1WWr6_Prgo7bct2qlGwNarghN_8AtCcMEsCs1nm90JI7pIBq/s1600/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg74fas1ue-5rzHClILy9pVuvmAzrcI0h1mHLqFLvSx5ob-l8mtO3MqtAoCQN344jqMVcj9MFrFA8GeSGF9RGPheWemE0_j1WWr6_Prgo7bct2qlGwNarghN_8AtCcMEsCs1nm90JI7pIBq/s400/3.png" width="382" /></a></div>
<br />Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-57079325060254950682015-03-04T22:24:00.001-05:002015-03-04T22:24:47.954-05:00Snow map<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Sorry for lack of quality with the map. I'm just testing out how to update from my phone when I'm not around. It came out okay, I guess? </div>
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The point is that this rain will change to snow around mid night and it's going to come down hard. Latest model data suggests these numbers are to low but I don't know if I believe it. It just a snow event. We are so use to this by now and life will go on as usual. Have a good night and be safe.</div>
<br />Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-27839381373872628442015-03-02T21:55:00.000-05:002015-03-02T21:55:49.566-05:00What A Mess..We have a very complicated storm system(s) coming our way this week. This forecast is going to try and pin point the timeline of events, but there is so much going on that I will have to update again by tomorrow or Wednesday.<br />
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Let's start with Tuesday. A storm system will be coming up from the southwest and run into the cold air mass that's been stuck over the region. The precipitation will start as all snow in the afternoon and depending how much QPF can fall in the first few hours will dictate how much snow falls. At this point I see a varying amount of 1" to as much as 3" in steadier bands before a change over to sleet by Tuesday night. Sleet could even accumulate up to 1" before another change over begins.<br />
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On the models this storm looks to be primarily rain. However when you look at the soundings you notice a cold wedge near the surface which keeps the frozen precipitation around A LOT longer than the TV News channels are telling you. (See Image Below)</div>
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The image above shows a scene that somewhat disturbing. Nearly 0.25" of liquid falls in the 6 hour time frame of this sounding with below freezing temperatures at the surface. This sets NW Jersey up for MAJOR icing of sleet to freezing rain. Snow melts pretty easy on contact with roads but sleet pellets tend to cover roadways fast and are not easy to plow away and melt with salt. Wednesday morning is going to be rough...</div>
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Eventually we do rise above freezing during the afternoon on Wednesday, but at that point the main bulk of the precipitation shield has moved to our northeast. During this time temperatures get into the upper 30's ( I do not agree with temperature forecasts into the middle 40's) and some patchy drizzle moves through the area. This is good because with so much snow on the ground and frozen lakes and rivers a major rain event could be catastrophic for low lying areas. Not only flooding but ice jam risk right now is very high and we need a slow melt process through March to safely get rid of the danger. (Image below of the "warm sector" of the storm)</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHWAVF5O88f9oXwEIrKOdVC3hhsmL1MNjBb82W9UYdE7GY6VG4jC3Ww57xZ0oQ_qjB7ksLoC70wBsMsjNJN6vbsB340mhbTB9P8HYLmyjOGpqsyaVNYbsqT1ylBzzBodngkiMfiKZxPGr4/s1600/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHWAVF5O88f9oXwEIrKOdVC3hhsmL1MNjBb82W9UYdE7GY6VG4jC3Ww57xZ0oQ_qjB7ksLoC70wBsMsjNJN6vbsB340mhbTB9P8HYLmyjOGpqsyaVNYbsqT1ylBzzBodngkiMfiKZxPGr4/s1600/3.png" height="640" width="460" /></a></div>
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The next step in this system is the cold front, which moves through WITHOUT any pre-frontal moisture. Instead the precipitation trails the cold air. The image below shows when the front is moving through. The sounding shows the dew point temperature becoming increasing dry and the temperature just above freezing through the column. All it will take is some precipitation to fall and bring the temperatures below 32 F to support ALL SNOW again to the surface.</div>
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This is when it gets interesting. Now that the profile of the atmosphere supports all snow we still have to deal with the FRONTAL moisture, which will be snow. How much is still up for question, but the latest NAM say A LOT... </div>
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Now there is a lot of weather between now and Thursday but just know that significant snowfall is a strong possibility but for now my main focus is the ice for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Be safe everyone and check back for updates. </div>
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<br />Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-86901872845548314872015-02-21T11:41:00.001-05:002015-02-21T11:41:03.709-05:00<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Sorry for the lack of posts. I'm doing this from my phone at jay peak Vermont. I'll be back blogging next week. I'm heading out into the glades :)</div>
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<br />Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-31486662522793137452015-02-17T08:10:00.000-05:002015-02-17T08:11:48.406-05:00Winter just keeps on coming...I'm so sorry. I wrote this on Sunday and realized I never hit the "Publish" button :(<br />
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We did manage to get about 2 to 3 inches of snow this weekend. Not exactly the biggest event but still it was something to add to our deep snow pack. Now the extreme cold is here and it's going to stay, and it's going to stay awhile. I don't see much relief in the next week honestly besides some days approaching the 20's for highs. That should feel like spring to us!<br />
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First snow event this week is for Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. Honestly this isn't going to have a huge effect on us in northern NJ, but still it's going to require us to break out the shovels again. The latest NAM is showing the total QPF for the event which is around 0.15" to 0.25". With temperatures in the teens for highs this means high ratio ratio snowfall on the order of 15:1 to 20:1. In my mind it's about a 2 to 5 inch event with more the further south you go.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfLfzsosxUBD_EFjd3gQKK97A_b_Kxm5fPHk664Hi2M5QP2V1TgaxGAsXjQ01N68uOq_BN4euMNoINSXCVK85myrj8t2kxzDNvyacTKNIkLNFMWxj2iEIf229yCpOS6B16WRqTlgW8VgpL/s1600/a.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfLfzsosxUBD_EFjd3gQKK97A_b_Kxm5fPHk664Hi2M5QP2V1TgaxGAsXjQ01N68uOq_BN4euMNoINSXCVK85myrj8t2kxzDNvyacTKNIkLNFMWxj2iEIf229yCpOS6B16WRqTlgW8VgpL/s1600/a.png" /></a></div>
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Here is my first snow map for the event:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFYIk8FL-DMgM4AeYkmGQKbZQC16Rmm4HneSTUkfv27UqhsEkO837309sdjzSkxKjgshZMFDx8JnBlKf0FQE6s4pgFlHHwTNn0zeG6PrbSdA4qSAhASVbnH2q1RZBaKx5Sk_MTpclkgHWa/s1600/b.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFYIk8FL-DMgM4AeYkmGQKbZQC16Rmm4HneSTUkfv27UqhsEkO837309sdjzSkxKjgshZMFDx8JnBlKf0FQE6s4pgFlHHwTNn0zeG6PrbSdA4qSAhASVbnH2q1RZBaKx5Sk_MTpclkgHWa/s1600/b.png" /></a></div>
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Beyond this system there are multiple other snow chances this week, some look like passing snow showers while others could bring some accumulation. Right now it's not clear whats going to come out of these systems and for now focus is on the storm for Monday night into Tuesday.</div>
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Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-12546219688522476772015-02-09T19:58:00.002-05:002015-02-09T19:58:54.448-05:00Winter Just Keeps On Coming...All that hype with this Sun-Tues storm on TV had people frightened. I never jumped on board with this storm and even more forecast of a couple inches was to high! Most places just got a light coating of sleet and some snow flakes mixed in. It really wasn't all that bad today in NJ because all the precipitation went north of us, but there are more storms on the horizon...<br />
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First off a clipper system will be heading our way for Thursday and a secondary low will form off the coast. Right now it seems like the storm will intensify too late for NJ to see substantial snowfall, however New England could get another foot.<br />
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There still is some time to see how this storm evolves on the models but to me this looks like a minor event for NW Jersey for the time being. By the weekend we could be looking at another potential storm. More updates in coming days...</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0r0blpZ7vwTgJ0Xkoli-lYtIvRTSG47_Uf2DEU1IAZtdlCXBZ2XYKlqBLGFr3C4qUMqakiMp3c8dXMs4z5B9A8lZfwDe4Q8fB-G05TNR8mCw_N5g1q2hLNYZhriaIU8mqopCr7TKEAY4a/s1600/9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0r0blpZ7vwTgJ0Xkoli-lYtIvRTSG47_Uf2DEU1IAZtdlCXBZ2XYKlqBLGFr3C4qUMqakiMp3c8dXMs4z5B9A8lZfwDe4Q8fB-G05TNR8mCw_N5g1q2hLNYZhriaIU8mqopCr7TKEAY4a/s1600/9.png" /></a></div>
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<br />Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-31272598705760925252015-02-06T19:45:00.001-05:002015-02-06T19:45:46.243-05:00Update**<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
First off let's talk about this Sunday-Tuesday storm that people keep telling me about today. I keep getting forecasts from people about the big storm for next week. Yes, I explained to them that NJ was not in the main path of this system(s). Below is an image of the QPF of the whole system, and this is a storm for the Adirondacks, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and Maine. Looks like 10"-20" for them with possibly more in the higher terrain. NJ however looks to be on the southern edge of the precipitation, and therefore on the warm side. This leaves us with some rain, sleet, freezing, rain, and some snow. Right now it does not look like a significant event for NJ. I'm actually heading to Vermont shortly for some snowboarding so I'll be up in all this and won't be able to post until Sunday night. If anything does change I'll try to do a quick update from my phone. Worst case scenario we get 3"-6", but most likely just a few inches. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdQfHTgBib9Sf_2STJdAt0yrW0QDS50iX9ZUJXS3bQrJn-RQ2D7Po_YXHqtHVQArBXjjPB0VaoUho8IPzA44UE0fqNybRMDQ23vq_UuhX3-dtoG1HXPXjxUYIE-W9xFFiKcmnSl2bWOnd3/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdQfHTgBib9Sf_2STJdAt0yrW0QDS50iX9ZUJXS3bQrJn-RQ2D7Po_YXHqtHVQArBXjjPB0VaoUho8IPzA44UE0fqNybRMDQ23vq_UuhX3-dtoG1HXPXjxUYIE-W9xFFiKcmnSl2bWOnd3/s1600/1.png" /></a></div>
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In the wake of this system an Alberta Clipper comes down out of Canada into the northeast. Right now it appears to affect the same areas up north again but there is some error this many hours out and if the cold air pushes further south so would the precipitation. This system below is likely a minor event but the big story is what happens after this system moves off the coast.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisqRFy8wP3zXZm6JJ213MmeAmXCQf79IkCLRb96S_jdEneB-4lJ3U4zqK85Nh0DMblT9AwMjPf7df0cQDutdCowohmpjVUcfbjuTonMhuLRoR9Op_2UUewo2HjU5qi8yfATT9vwkY5hLar/s1600/thurs.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisqRFy8wP3zXZm6JJ213MmeAmXCQf79IkCLRb96S_jdEneB-4lJ3U4zqK85Nh0DMblT9AwMjPf7df0cQDutdCowohmpjVUcfbjuTonMhuLRoR9Op_2UUewo2HjU5qi8yfATT9vwkY5hLar/s1600/thurs.png" /></a></div>
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You can see that clipper system from above of the right side of the image below over Nova Scotia. The winds once again from the NORTH. If you read all my previous posts you know that's our coldest flow in NJ. And this is some COLD stuff, in fact we could be looking at the coldest air of the winter and even some record breakers. Valentines Day is going to have highs in the single digits with lows well below 0. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBb_vcjyv76HmJoi512cRrQ37ys9Qlwf3YNg2MVRyDxAJne6irpUdYFevEW0yaywFyOKaqOJqH6gLnzWDSu1c1AVYkXBFL0-Ua02iCg2J-qv9eg67C-jOg8-olXnd8UztTq41WMw3v8LRw/s1600/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBb_vcjyv76HmJoi512cRrQ37ys9Qlwf3YNg2MVRyDxAJne6irpUdYFevEW0yaywFyOKaqOJqH6gLnzWDSu1c1AVYkXBFL0-Ua02iCg2J-qv9eg67C-jOg8-olXnd8UztTq41WMw3v8LRw/s1600/3.png" /></a></div>
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The longer range shows consistent arctic air with plenty of storm chances to come. Winter made a come back and it's here to stay. </div>
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Check back Sunday night for updates...</div>
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<br />Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-75029332968622702722015-02-04T19:48:00.000-05:002015-02-04T19:48:12.505-05:00More Storms Coming...First off, it's apparent now that the systems for tomorrow never do phase at the right time for major snowfall over the northeast, instead it happens way out to sea. We see could see a coating of snow from the clipper system.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimEdTowCwwOYOOoZk2ENqjgyNg7oocnDJUias7jIr4HK2-1r4S2X1Iy5SPp2o3rxq8183snPjDXdJCx7gJSdVn3IqAl5I08NWQRaGg50S6H9X6h4O0jWqrud-0YBPZK2UqkcCyKPzCtcUy/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimEdTowCwwOYOOoZk2ENqjgyNg7oocnDJUias7jIr4HK2-1r4S2X1Iy5SPp2o3rxq8183snPjDXdJCx7gJSdVn3IqAl5I08NWQRaGg50S6H9X6h4O0jWqrud-0YBPZK2UqkcCyKPzCtcUy/s1600/1.png" /></a></div>
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Now, the models are showing a very snowy pattern ahead next week. This part of the GFS and shows snow from Sunday through Tuesday. A long duration event with these impulses of energy with moderate snow. The thing we need to watch out for is one of these impulses trying to intensify into a much larger storm system. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitXohO263yLVsrhZvH5lmCwzcQBaJ14Q4_ZRZhl0SlFKdusFpi2Ev9dyHahoTBJ2QK7iNp84K77fRSiDWcDy65bRbFvgehOiG6dDhpnBJKIAhDpxi40Lo2zIU33KSp6yLPlYlVCdgaBCVd/s1600/output_7bR6G7.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitXohO263yLVsrhZvH5lmCwzcQBaJ14Q4_ZRZhl0SlFKdusFpi2Ev9dyHahoTBJ2QK7iNp84K77fRSiDWcDy65bRbFvgehOiG6dDhpnBJKIAhDpxi40Lo2zIU33KSp6yLPlYlVCdgaBCVd/s1600/output_7bR6G7.gif" height="640" width="457" /></a></div>
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At this point the models are still all over the places with how much snow (or rain) falls. Right now we need to keep an eye on this interesting pattern for next week. Check back for more updates in the coming days. </div>
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<br />Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-35156543803787808722015-02-02T20:27:00.002-05:002015-02-02T20:27:45.984-05:00What's Next?Well, the forecast for the last storm went very well. I had high confidence when I issued it and it verified perfectly. Couldn't have done better. So, what's next?<br />
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In the wake of this storm winds will get cranking from the north and northeast. The black lines show the direction and like I've said before, a north wind is our coldest. Temperatures will be in the single digits and around 0 tomorrow with the aid of a deep snow pack.<br />
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Cold air will be in abundant supply this week, so can we expect any more snow? The models are already catching onto something.</div>
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Most models like the GEM below show a system for Wednesday into Thursday. Well actually it's two different systems. One is a clipper coming out of the mid west and the other is a storm coming out of the gulf and trying to ride up the coast. This model misses the phase between the two systems and they do their own thing and we end up with a light snowfall of a couple inches from the clipper. Had these systems hooked up with each other we could be talking about significant snowfall.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGanj1tJvBF8EIC-B57JKnbz6RkvihTRoAVbWeCALLL_azZXtOmKVsHsMqkm3QzVE9psx8IsAOeB44qMjP-PxtC28mkU7m37yJpIk5gfkbXZiHAU8N-etx-caagk5_yU3nqj4c9uve7q_w/s1600/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGanj1tJvBF8EIC-B57JKnbz6RkvihTRoAVbWeCALLL_azZXtOmKVsHsMqkm3QzVE9psx8IsAOeB44qMjP-PxtC28mkU7m37yJpIk5gfkbXZiHAU8N-etx-caagk5_yU3nqj4c9uve7q_w/s1600/2.png" /></a></div>
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Below are two separate panels of the EURO. It too has both systems in the first panel, but if you scroll down to the second panel it phases these two systems together. The EURO suggests a monster low forms off the northeast coast and dumps 6"+ over a wide area. This type of set up can really provide a nice snow event, IF the timing is right on the phasing of the systems. We just need to give the models a few runs to see what happens with this. </div>
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Beyond this system another potential storm threat for next Sunday into Monday, but let's not get to far ahead yet. Take this one at a time.<br />
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<br />Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-17141987929431331322015-02-01T11:12:00.002-05:002015-02-01T11:12:47.152-05:00Snow MapWell, my forecast over the last week has come out pretty good. Now let's see how my forecast for this storm turns out. I have pretty high confidence for this one unlike last week.<br />
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First off lets check the soundings:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqh-LHW3-iVL22VDzm42YcWd6YV5hVQlC6kH_m9GZ-QbJ98gLCxdPRYlOgfe6SfE6DiTmCvI3d6pPAlaCAO-kJ5jTZSx0UOopUl8JAD855KP9awy1VmoF0SRXiE5MUyZiowLKB0XidS-Ae/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqh-LHW3-iVL22VDzm42YcWd6YV5hVQlC6kH_m9GZ-QbJ98gLCxdPRYlOgfe6SfE6DiTmCvI3d6pPAlaCAO-kJ5jTZSx0UOopUl8JAD855KP9awy1VmoF0SRXiE5MUyZiowLKB0XidS-Ae/s1600/1.png" /></a></div>
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These soundings are for the I-80 corridor from various models. Now most show it being all snow except for the NAM in the middle which has a weak inversion for about 3 or 4 hours during the height of the event. This would result in more ice, but the general consensus is it stays just cold enough in NW Jersey.</div>
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This snow is going to fall fast and most of it falls in the first half of the event. There is going to be an area with a lot of ice somewhere between interstate 80 and 78 which could take down branches and power lines. Let's hope for the best. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEio0nxhiumfaa8nq71t_AFtiuE6HkYm2vCg6SR9YOZPgpI9LHytgn_EHLgahyphenhypheniYBxWmXsV5JxgminFZTp16jH3RDgxQE1_8qNv9RSeCgQ_5W8CWY3ZN_pnE5sQ3RRysBPvGDvxamW8ImhsH/s1600/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEio0nxhiumfaa8nq71t_AFtiuE6HkYm2vCg6SR9YOZPgpI9LHytgn_EHLgahyphenhypheniYBxWmXsV5JxgminFZTp16jH3RDgxQE1_8qNv9RSeCgQ_5W8CWY3ZN_pnE5sQ3RRysBPvGDvxamW8ImhsH/s1600/2.png" height="400" width="326" /></a></div>
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Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-77804513305720413702015-01-28T20:38:00.000-05:002015-01-28T20:38:16.579-05:00Oh, Yes. I Busted To.I have to admit, I was forecasting more snow than the area received. I was forecasting 8"- 18" across NW Jersey. And it ended up more like 3"-6". Very poor verification and the biggest bust in my forecasting career. I have a system of forecasting, and with this system I did it just like I would do any other. The models were clearly showing significant snowfall, and the ones that weren't were inconsistent which usually is a sign that it can't handle the data. In the end, those models, were actually catching on to the eastward shift. A shift of 75 miles that totally changed the forecast. It just goes to show that meteorology is a science that we still don't fully understand. I mean it's forecasting future events. Considering we knew days out that a big storm would form off the coast is amazing when you think about it. Thirty or forty years ago a three day forecast was a joke and you usually didn't know a storm was coming till the day before. We have come a long way, and we have a long way to go.<br />
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Now I want to discuss more future events. First off Thursday night into early Friday morning. Here are the simulated radar images from the NMM. Shows moderate snow showers lasting a good portion of the night. This could drop minor accumulations of about 1" or 2" inches in Northern New Jersey. It's not snow map worthy, but still enough to clean of the cars and clear the sidewalk.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip1gtzJCc4Uzx4_7DE70lOfjbTNoaniAyGK4uy3O5QHdE1NpyHArBDZ6QOYh4lFIc0IPBl-sTWRG6irKsip_aC63NJRcXHak4lxM80OGp_ECwWcj2BwO32M2Q_aLvmaX5MJ2zia2uLUUBh/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip1gtzJCc4Uzx4_7DE70lOfjbTNoaniAyGK4uy3O5QHdE1NpyHArBDZ6QOYh4lFIc0IPBl-sTWRG6irKsip_aC63NJRcXHak4lxM80OGp_ECwWcj2BwO32M2Q_aLvmaX5MJ2zia2uLUUBh/s1600/1.png" /></a></div>
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In the wake of this clipper system cold air will arrive for the weekend. And I mean cold. In the image below you see can the dark black lines I drew showing the wind direction directly from the north. That's how our coldest temperatures here in the Northeast happen. Without a chance to modify the air comes right out of Canada over the region, instead of taking days to reach us crossing half the country. Saturday will be in the teens for high temperatures. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUkRDJWhdEfnOuuwTm2YEaTMlxU8oQ0Ab667qpEirvdfKe7t2TYWMvIryOccQyBaCowyBAYBTMtJjFIAyYD41mcEp2vs16Yxl5EbIhsQ02W_IW5jMZh6W3yW1xdf9RqUp8M-CUEkMrcNKT/s1600/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUkRDJWhdEfnOuuwTm2YEaTMlxU8oQ0Ab667qpEirvdfKe7t2TYWMvIryOccQyBaCowyBAYBTMtJjFIAyYD41mcEp2vs16Yxl5EbIhsQ02W_IW5jMZh6W3yW1xdf9RqUp8M-CUEkMrcNKT/s1600/2.png" height="640" width="450" /></a></div>
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Now, what about Monday. Well the models are still trying to resolve what will happen. Just take a look at this. Both models ran today and show COMPLETELY different scenarios.<br />
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GEM:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsDM-Dypk6wVAyCG3mu2tKcGIrqqEe6U_Cac62s6XzWIWIBk8POH8lDHJ2fPITE_AalW2-04SvgjlDlh6XFz7uMR2pehHqAap9PuugMLZTsCOYLe2Z8U9ZPw8V7oEdWRHITsOnyb8riP2T/s1600/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsDM-Dypk6wVAyCG3mu2tKcGIrqqEe6U_Cac62s6XzWIWIBk8POH8lDHJ2fPITE_AalW2-04SvgjlDlh6XFz7uMR2pehHqAap9PuugMLZTsCOYLe2Z8U9ZPw8V7oEdWRHITsOnyb8riP2T/s1600/3.png" height="640" width="418" /></a></div>
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GFS:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq_pkRFYzu67K69N1RlVvirXYrcEuJ-XyKPvlbJx1sKxhTkbM6TuE398CfPlF4Zhp3vtaM-Xl5RqNrIn7OE9iDzOKMDZBUp9uXIFOkism7sdL9S5rg2hYXCn9Ya8l_bVYDgk2UlRfTkckk/s1600/4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq_pkRFYzu67K69N1RlVvirXYrcEuJ-XyKPvlbJx1sKxhTkbM6TuE398CfPlF4Zhp3vtaM-Xl5RqNrIn7OE9iDzOKMDZBUp9uXIFOkism7sdL9S5rg2hYXCn9Ya8l_bVYDgk2UlRfTkckk/s1600/4.png" height="640" width="472" /></a></div>
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Yes those are for the same hours out. As you can tell we need more time before making any kind of call on this system....<br />
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<br />Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-64200921211999841872015-01-26T09:29:00.000-05:002015-01-26T09:29:22.024-05:00Snow Map Is Out!Sorry it's late. I didn't want to issue a map when the models were in a major disagreement. However the 12z NAM has just come out and bringing it further west than previous runs. And the 00z EURO still holds firm but slightly east.<br />
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NAM QPF:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglBihAouHQM91PW-aSi1DbpzacBvFQr8I0_UXKwaEsPh2FkTay2fF0VTUZIE-nnp7X-sVxlcWxuMTc2Y3-hAlghJe6fmETyJdJ3byPh3cBl_w8zsjJR6V9ZQafYNHA7qaEBA5iZy9IJnkA/s1600/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglBihAouHQM91PW-aSi1DbpzacBvFQr8I0_UXKwaEsPh2FkTay2fF0VTUZIE-nnp7X-sVxlcWxuMTc2Y3-hAlghJe6fmETyJdJ3byPh3cBl_w8zsjJR6V9ZQafYNHA7qaEBA5iZy9IJnkA/s1600/2.png" height="640" width="348" /></a></div>
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EURO:<br />
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The heaviest snow will be east of NW Jersey but that doesn't mean we won't see significant totals from this system (today's snow and tomorrow's combine).<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlvQmdAJGoZlVIlxvt4eB-jg3vCq1fUs3E3FoFcHZBahYLBD2vo7OmWypMhcqmRiXiwrCj72du7OlAEsYRQ45kC4iKygPQCgsBjyyS3E5WWETvQ9zQjc_UI-2Xk3PUGe7SDm-hkPdv0kIF/s1600/nj+map.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlvQmdAJGoZlVIlxvt4eB-jg3vCq1fUs3E3FoFcHZBahYLBD2vo7OmWypMhcqmRiXiwrCj72du7OlAEsYRQ45kC4iKygPQCgsBjyyS3E5WWETvQ9zQjc_UI-2Xk3PUGe7SDm-hkPdv0kIF/s1600/nj+map.png" height="400" width="325" /></a></div>
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<br />Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-59048646088251502192015-01-25T13:56:00.000-05:002015-01-25T13:56:09.981-05:00We Need To TalkBack in November I issued my winter forecast. You can refer to that here (<a href="http://meteomaddness.blogspot.com/2014/11/winter-forecast-2014-2015.html">http://meteomaddness.blogspot.com/2014/11/winter-forecast-2014-2015.html</a>)<br />
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This is a quote directly from my winter forecast blog entry:<br />
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"<span style="background-color: #f7f0e9; color: #204063; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, Verdana, 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">All indices I've looked at suggests increased precipitation amounts for the eastern US. More precipitation could mean more intense storm systems than last year and increases the likelihood for a block bluster snow event measured in feet rather than inches. Also could mean heavier rain events as well on the warm side of a low pressure system. Unfortunately for the south west I don't see much in the way of relief for the record breaking drought. </span>"<br />
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I spent a month, few couple hours each day to produce my winter forecast, and up until now I thought I did something wrong. I've gone over, over, and over again to find if I made a mistake somewhere. I even did some quick research on the strong -QBO phase, which can be found here:<br />
(<a href="http://meteomaddness.blogspot.com/2014/12/where-is-cold.html">http://meteomaddness.blogspot.com/2014/12/where-is-cold.html</a>)<br />
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and the second entry with results here: (<a href="http://meteomaddness.blogspot.com/2014/12/lets-run-numbers.html">http://meteomaddness.blogspot.com/2014/12/lets-run-numbers.html</a>).<br />
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My conclusion after looking into this because some meteorologists were bringing this up and I wasn't going to take their word for it:<br />
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"<b style="background-color: #f7f0e9; color: #204063; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, Verdana, 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: red;">My conclusion,</span></b><span style="background-color: #f7f0e9; color: #204063; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, Verdana, 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"> the strong -QBO has minor influence on our winters and is only a percentages of the larger picture in a winter forecast. It alone cannot be used to determine how winter will behave. I made this decision after seeing very little in the way of linkage between this winter and the other winters with similar QBO indices. A strong -QBO can produce both snowy/snow less winters as seen in the data. I would love to use the majority of the 1970's winters as evidence but there are a few multi-decadal oscillations that are in totally opposite regimes today than 30+ years ago. Going off the data from this last decade it looks like we still have a strong possibility for a snowy winter though not at cold as last, which is still in line with my winter forecast. </span>"<br />
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I've spent years learning long range forecasting and trying to improve with every mistake I've made. However, this winter forecast, is not going to bust. The product I put out was 100% from me, and I didn't let any other winter forecast or meteorologists get into my head. I ran the data, did the math, and produced it from scratch. I even did audits in December and still came up with the same results, despite the "canceled winter" worries from the <u>Weather Weenie</u> community.<br />
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Up until this point my forecast hasn't been to bad, except for the lack of snow. I did note that we could see a lot of precipitation this winter and that we could end up on the warm of a lot of systems. That seemed to be what happened most of the time. Things are changing...<br />
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With 31.8" so far last year and 22.1" this year we are about 10" behind last year, but in a week from today we could surpass that number from last, with multiple storm chances and ample amounts of cold air.<br />
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First system: Monday - Tuesday<br />
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Okay, this one is a big deal. The Euro has been consistent with it's track and total snowfall while the other models are all over the place and messy. Yes, I like the Euro solution because I consider it the most reliable model in the world.<br />
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And yes, that's two to three feet of snow over the area. To make matters worse temperatures will be in the low 20's so the liquid to snow ratio will be more like 15:1 instead of the 10:1. These numbers on the Euro (if the liquid equivalent is correct) are off by a third cause they are based on 10:1 ratios. </div>
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I do need to point out the other models are still showing a major snowstorm but along the lines of 10"-15". </div>
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GEM:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2qsCkZeWMK9JWYy1zWjCwhTSvxRrr0i9hk1_U6hizTi2vYR-oDkz7tvLrs28LUfuCGX6IYSpd76sl4II-phmSGoX0PeIC__veHfvVQ9EDB1Jlyygvgk_K63nagafqm9GgYV__bTmeSbkW/s1600/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2qsCkZeWMK9JWYy1zWjCwhTSvxRrr0i9hk1_U6hizTi2vYR-oDkz7tvLrs28LUfuCGX6IYSpd76sl4II-phmSGoX0PeIC__veHfvVQ9EDB1Jlyygvgk_K63nagafqm9GgYV__bTmeSbkW/s1600/2.png" height="640" width="412" /></a></div>
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NAM:<br />
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GFS:</div>
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These models are showing about half the snowfall as the EURO. All I can say is that there is a lot of data to be processed here and perhaps the EURO is the only one with enough computer power, or maybe it's wrong. Right now I'm not sure. Either way a major snow storm is on the way. I'll post my snow map late tonight or tomorrow morning. </div>
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On top of this it looks like another storm is possible by the end of the week. </div>
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Beyond this system it looks cold with more storms on the horizon. Let's take it one system at a time though. Check back for more later. </div>
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<br />Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-70778922648843752572015-01-23T19:55:00.001-05:002015-01-23T19:55:02.725-05:00Update on storm...This storm is heading into NJ several hours earlier than expected. The overnight hours are going to be the worst of it with most of the snow accumulating by lunch tomorrow. I really like my map I issued yesterday and I don't want to make any changes. The snow could mix at times but NW Jersey is mostly snow for the whole event.<br />
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<br />Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-42033566368754996102015-01-22T20:11:00.003-05:002015-01-22T20:11:57.599-05:00Preliminary Map For Saturday<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_DtyvTcLSHzV8tcQck2_W9WAsNKNZlK4BkRhDvGRklggbnZk9YdBu1kEHiVDBy7GmMmVQMzT9k186WF-Jfa_fXt88ExxEph7FKUy90_WbDjBozokbuzGliG4-yJWK8rS8LT7_GsU2Jkui/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_DtyvTcLSHzV8tcQck2_W9WAsNKNZlK4BkRhDvGRklggbnZk9YdBu1kEHiVDBy7GmMmVQMzT9k186WF-Jfa_fXt88ExxEph7FKUy90_WbDjBozokbuzGliG4-yJWK8rS8LT7_GsU2Jkui/s1600/1.png" height="400" width="320" /></a></div>
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Will do update tomorrow. This system doesn't look to impressive for us, but another possible storm for Monday could bring us even more. That is still up in the air though. Check back tomorrow.Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-27257066776010845012015-01-20T19:28:00.001-05:002015-01-20T19:28:13.682-05:00I Heard Snow?The pattern finally looks to be changing, at least enough to provide us with some storm chances. To start off we will have some snow moving in tomorrow evening into the early morning. Generally 1"-3" across the state. Nothing very exciting, just more of the same type of storm we have seen several times this month.<br />
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Now, there is something that has caught the attention of meteorologists. A storm system will ride up the eastern seaboard this weekend and somebody is going to see a nice snow fall out of it. Right now the question is will the precipitation come far enough inland, and will there be enough cold air. As of right now I'm not worried about the supply of cold air for NW Jersey, however the heaviest precip could stay just to our east. The models need a few more runs to finally grasp the situation a little better. </div>
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Beyond this system will be a nice shot of cold arctic air, and the chance of another storm. Right now it's to far to narrow down the specs but this pattern could easily produce a nice storm or two. </div>
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I'm not going to post a snow map for the clipper system for tomorrow. A 1"-3" inch really isn't easy to predict who will see the 1, 2, or 3. It's really not a major event just more a nuisance on the roads. How ever if the storm for this weekend keeps showing promise, you better believe I'll have a preliminary map out ASAP.</div>
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Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-22153999082647216142015-01-11T13:47:00.002-05:002015-01-11T13:47:36.870-05:00Some quick statzLast winter as of this date:<br />
Total snowfall= 23.6"<br />
Coldest day= January 7th 2.1 degree high temperature / low= - 4.7<br />
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This winter so far:<br />
Total snowfall= 14.6"<br />
Coldest day= January 8th 14.8 degree high temperature/ low= 2.2<br />
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Oddly enough one year ago today there was NO snow on the ground and it was 56 degrees! I bet nobody remembers that? If you don't believe me I have pictures below to show you the difference!<br />
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Kurtenbach Brook (tributary of the Musky), Mount Olive NJ, January 11th 2014:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbRvK6-L4PBIXFMItZZUfPyPPvohByHiWzPStwjTnWKDBoPjkyf_hbpu0E79kix6u30kRFrVtuhK-XfU-mJBRtNT0IZoTqaZ3tfvFslqsmzzlS7zEyLGheCXYL4qe9J91fCcaVCCrf0qqk/s1600/20140112_144100.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbRvK6-L4PBIXFMItZZUfPyPPvohByHiWzPStwjTnWKDBoPjkyf_hbpu0E79kix6u30kRFrVtuhK-XfU-mJBRtNT0IZoTqaZ3tfvFslqsmzzlS7zEyLGheCXYL4qe9J91fCcaVCCrf0qqk/s1600/20140112_144100.jpg" height="640" width="360" /></a></div>
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Musconetcong River, Mount Olive NJ, January 12th 2015:<br />
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The Musky has nearly frozen over across it's entire width. If this cold weather persists we could have ice jams worries later this winter... </div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14.4444446563721px; line-height: 21.466667175293px;"><br /></span>Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-5598362917289486482015-01-05T21:17:00.000-05:002015-01-05T21:17:38.834-05:00Happy New Year!Long Range Forecast:<br />
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Happy New Year! Hopefully, it means a new weather pattern because as a snowboarder this isn't working for me. I finally see some signs that the winter (which is only 2 weeks old by the way) is starting to get cranking. I've noted in past posts that the strong -QBO could be the reason behind the mild and snow less December and typically results in better second half of winter, if you like snow that is.<br />
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First clue that things are starting to change:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzPuZ93rN4ebCv4McbAQgyReBtPSDXIxS1hVUjwEY9w1-PtSo3NxiewtMbI1UetWbteEaC_wqhYHCFi1tDgmasxfNhQP98beCMiGDs3SK3FKb8NJZuaGHIuKAjYxkp04kVk56Vfr5aWIze/s1600/temp30anim+(1).gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzPuZ93rN4ebCv4McbAQgyReBtPSDXIxS1hVUjwEY9w1-PtSo3NxiewtMbI1UetWbteEaC_wqhYHCFi1tDgmasxfNhQP98beCMiGDs3SK3FKb8NJZuaGHIuKAjYxkp04kVk56Vfr5aWIze/s1600/temp30anim+(1).gif" /></a></div>
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Above is animation of stratospheric temperatures over the last month. If you watch over Siberia a warming event occurs just after Christmas and continues to strengthen. This is a signal that pressure values are changing, and in my opinion any change is welcome. Typically it tells us arctic air is on the move and more than likely the AO and NAO indices are about to tank.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz5Ib0lYhHvacIUjZbbBjXiJGFArahQipfOfpSwQt8hz4x6Zee4dG_dsevvlZlLfNJvzpblWq1EZICpfPw2_MJcP4370HTx-kXuif3bglWB9DDdTPAFSbWqh1qxl4-Gm2Q3pVnefcj7mQu/s1600/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz5Ib0lYhHvacIUjZbbBjXiJGFArahQipfOfpSwQt8hz4x6Zee4dG_dsevvlZlLfNJvzpblWq1EZICpfPw2_MJcP4370HTx-kXuif3bglWB9DDdTPAFSbWqh1qxl4-Gm2Q3pVnefcj7mQu/s1600/2.png" height="640" width="412" /></a></div>
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The AO looks like it will finally go negative but the NAO may take till mid-month which tells me it's unlikely to see any major east coast snowstorms at least until then. For the next week or two clipper systems will be our primary source of snow which may provide a couple inches here and there.<br />
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The MJO also looks to be headed in a good phase. One that means more cold and snow in our future.<br />
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Short Range Weather:<br />
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To start things off we will get a small snow event tomorrow. A fast moving clipper system will bring some light snow showers on the order of 1"-2". This snow is going to be very dry and will immediately stick to all surfaces. Really not a major event but enough to remind us that it's winter.<br />
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Thursday could end up being one of the top three coldest days of this winter. Just look at the image below. I thickened the black lines which represent the wind direction and they come right out of the north, which is how we get our coldest of days because the air is coming right out of Canada without a chance to modify over the plains states or coming over the Appalachians. Temperatures could go as low as -5 across the coldest spots and daytime highs will stay in the single digits. A true arctic outbreak.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2ZJmtIqhy6Q7DaUh7VjdWNdRZEB47HZKvofRm9bFPsUGvX-PTzC17ulEEJ3K1Y65Dvxy4z-xop8oU-MQ2cjy9QejEMwq0rzgn447LM5icT-mjK3ogGUtSL7ibCYtCCoe4XTuaxdviFcQv/s1600/5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2ZJmtIqhy6Q7DaUh7VjdWNdRZEB47HZKvofRm9bFPsUGvX-PTzC17ulEEJ3K1Y65Dvxy4z-xop8oU-MQ2cjy9QejEMwq0rzgn447LM5icT-mjK3ogGUtSL7ibCYtCCoe4XTuaxdviFcQv/s1600/5.png" height="640" width="366" /></a></div>
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After the coldest air moves through another clipper system could move through the area on Friday bringing another minor accumulation. Behind this system is a re-enforcing shot of arctic air for the weekend. I don't see NW Jersey getting above freezing for at least the next 10 days.</div>
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That's all for now. Check back in coming days for updates!<br />
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<br />Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-56936068711311253722014-12-29T16:12:00.002-05:002014-12-29T16:12:36.233-05:00Some Statistics For You...Let's do another recap comparing last winter to this winter so far up to December 29th.<br />
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<u>Winter 2013- 2014</u><br />
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Season snowfall: 15.9"<br />
Days below freezing: 22<br />
Days of snow cover: 24<br />
Coldest reading: 11.3 degrees<br />
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<u>Winter 2014-2015</u><br />
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Season snowfall: 11.6"<br />
Days below freezing: 11<br />
Days of snow cover: 13<br />
Coldest reading: 13.7 degrees<br />
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While last year we were similar in the snow department, it's clear that we aren't seeing the cold temperatures that we saw last year. This year we had our cold come even earlier than last year and November brought over 10" across the area. This time last year there was <u>no snow</u> on the ground and the cold really got cranking in January.<br />
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Last January about 16" of snow fell, which is about the normal snowfall for the area. However in February nearly 40" fell which I believe will our snowiest month this year once the -QBO begins to weaken and allows the strong Pacific jet to weaken as well.<br />
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It was clear to me that this year wouldn't be as cold as last year, and that could even be found in my winter forecast (<a href="http://meteomaddness.blogspot.com/2014/11/winter-forecast-2014-2015.html">http://meteomaddness.blogspot.com/2014/11/winter-forecast-2014-2015.html</a>). I also mentioned about an elevated risk of major snowstorms, which I still believe is a strong possibility. Last season we had a lot of events that added up to 72" for a season total, but this year the events could be cut in half but provide more precipitation and still give us a snowier than normal winter.<br />
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The pattern seems to be changing a bit and with cold air moving in the snow isn't to far behind. I see potential for storms in January but I want to give it a few more model runs before I open the flood gates of hype.<br />
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<br />Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-8315411727026201142014-12-24T16:01:00.000-05:002014-12-24T16:01:06.983-05:00Let's run the numbers...Adding to my post yesterday, I'm going to look further into the QBO signal and try to confirm or dismiss any rumor that "winter is over".<br />
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Here are the winters with a similar QBO Phase:<br />
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Here is how much snow fell in NYC those winters. We need to figure out what year matches up best with this year and what in the world happened in 2005-2006.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSxL-PIJX5Ax1ePklhW4_Z-GchmBp4uwIyEbeD23C_Uge5hwi_Uz9AzgbN_6Hbk6CMsEV6bPPx-csNPVsbRhQxvba8KQEvmfAdcrU5j9HT08yOsme4IFy1WbCwqNyXI5cwVBzIgK4cYZ3I/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSxL-PIJX5Ax1ePklhW4_Z-GchmBp4uwIyEbeD23C_Uge5hwi_Uz9AzgbN_6Hbk6CMsEV6bPPx-csNPVsbRhQxvba8KQEvmfAdcrU5j9HT08yOsme4IFy1WbCwqNyXI5cwVBzIgK4cYZ3I/s1600/1.png" height="262" width="400" /></a></div>
So right away I took a look at the ENSO phase. (Basically was it an El Nino, La Nina, El Nada?) Interestingly enough there is no consistency with ENSO phase and -QBO as seen below, but there is one year that's pretty similar. This year (so far) and 1979-1980 both feature a weak El Nino. The very snowy season of 2005-2006 was a neutral phase while the rest were La Nina.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCON58xvVy1Kw8bQgr7uC8mYA7durB8CUXIsExnDLEf9YZNgdrlTstt0qzUWjUQ3Bs6aRqDXWsW_KzRNnYB0D_leEithSTVPxbZtX7Y7d8BQnHHxBromqjtEkgi2DYcuo-U_kAqoQqwtqj/s1600/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCON58xvVy1Kw8bQgr7uC8mYA7durB8CUXIsExnDLEf9YZNgdrlTstt0qzUWjUQ3Bs6aRqDXWsW_KzRNnYB0D_leEithSTVPxbZtX7Y7d8BQnHHxBromqjtEkgi2DYcuo-U_kAqoQqwtqj/s1600/3.png" height="237" width="400" /></a></div>
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Then I decided to look at the PDO, NAO, AO, AMO, and EPO which all gave me charts looking like the one below. Basically there is no link between these years and those indices. This could mean something else over powered the other indices or basically these winters only have the -QBO in similarity and it doesn't mean much for the winter pattern. Let's keep digging.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq2Se8Mo07bACAXD5gcHMkaTqjFRHMYgXIxLTU-24ieukcR44c0UNSftPz_-p3HW9ZemafgGL_adnTFP9IKrxRor-1YfBqXaT1COkS6fvRNQ3V5NRP2uDm0mp-Eg82Nk_HgSsaUaKUfB34/s1600/4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq2Se8Mo07bACAXD5gcHMkaTqjFRHMYgXIxLTU-24ieukcR44c0UNSftPz_-p3HW9ZemafgGL_adnTFP9IKrxRor-1YfBqXaT1COkS6fvRNQ3V5NRP2uDm0mp-Eg82Nk_HgSsaUaKUfB34/s1600/4.png" height="256" width="400" /></a></div>
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I finally looked at the PNA and saw that the trend was there, but nothing to impressive. How ever I had a difficult time finding this years line on the chart.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUDBs4FP-vyeGoSvg0rw7IMXa2Ye8agFJ8YipqcIl_byBVyc8comRPRilPFiDLjIxdM1f8phDskAK4nwi0VPq_jwTIjn0QSgM3ybtiqVLC5Qt0LTJmaOecTpxDuSmYMj1dJfHwU9bafBYS/s1600/5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUDBs4FP-vyeGoSvg0rw7IMXa2Ye8agFJ8YipqcIl_byBVyc8comRPRilPFiDLjIxdM1f8phDskAK4nwi0VPq_jwTIjn0QSgM3ybtiqVLC5Qt0LTJmaOecTpxDuSmYMj1dJfHwU9bafBYS/s1600/5.png" height="240" width="400" /></a></div>
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It was nearly over lapped by 1979-1980. That winter is linking up again with this one. This makes 79-80 a strong candidate for a matching analog winter. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyMJ5eNDE6mq7RS38eVBuHf51q0B8Fq-wsIVHW_38xdQi27heStxPu02Ow3F8_8D4jTcYwIMtLu-9CpspaqGMOy23orGBGLbdosUJ-Cd8D763Gka-CqkzjYj0MxDR0fcxVW0SDimoIM3zi/s1600/6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyMJ5eNDE6mq7RS38eVBuHf51q0B8Fq-wsIVHW_38xdQi27heStxPu02Ow3F8_8D4jTcYwIMtLu-9CpspaqGMOy23orGBGLbdosUJ-Cd8D763Gka-CqkzjYj0MxDR0fcxVW0SDimoIM3zi/s1600/6.png" height="212" width="400" /></a></div>
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During most these years the PNA started off positive and went negative at times during the mid to late winter when I also noted NYC saw it's snowiest months, which is not expected. The data is conflicting and points to another force at play here. </div>
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What ever happened in 2005-2006 is not happening this year (so far) in the data. As I could find nothing to match it up with. The 79-80 winter however linked up a little better but still has much that isn't in common with the numbers this year so far. The other 70's winters, had no signs of any linkage. The strong -QBO events of this past decade have way more in common when we start looking at long trend terms and patterns. </div>
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<b><span style="color: red;">My conclusion,</span></b> the strong -QBO has minor influence on our winters and is only a percentages of the larger picture in a winter forecast. It alone cannot be used to determine how winter will behave. I made this decision after seeing very little in the way of linkage between this winter and the other winters with similar QBO indices. A strong -QBO can produce both snowy/snow less winters as seen in the data. I would love to use the majority of the 1970's winters as evidence but there are a few multi-decadal oscillations that are in totally opposite regimes today than 30+ years ago. Going off the data from this last decade it looks like we still have a strong possibility for a snowy winter though not at cold as last, which is still in line with my winter forecast. </div>
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I would love to hear some feedback from this. Any opinions and ideas are welcome. Thanks for reading!</div>
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Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-39244870830772679922014-12-23T20:11:00.001-05:002014-12-23T20:15:05.977-05:00Where is the cold?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Where is the cold air? It seems like its coming next week, but always seems to keep getting delayed. The problem, a strong Pacific jet as seen below in the left portion of the loop. This is aiding in keeping the cold arctic air locked up over the polar region and when it does make its way into the lower 48 it quickly gets swept away. </div>
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The model are showing much colder air on the way but it could be short lived if this Pacific jet doesn't start to weaken. It's simply not allowing for a more winter like pattern to set up over the country and keeping the NAO and AO in positive phases. Another thing we look for to indicate cold and snowy weather is stratospheric warming events in the higher latitudes, and it looked a few weeks ago that it was occurring but the warm regime has collapsed as seen below.<br />
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So what's the cause of this persistent jet? Another meteorologist (DT from Wxrisk, a great guy to follow on Facebook) pointed out it could have to deal with the strong intensity of the QBO. The QBO is an upper level wind pattern over the equator that actually switches direction every year or so. So I looked up the past years with a a similar QBO pattern going into the winter months and highlighted them in yellow, red dots are no match.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT2ARMTJMRYIwWCupTQKSplot6B39lv2Koma5VS6TaWOGXyV-J3paWjtJBwELhlZx2-s6MOx3I4bV02nptHadHjL2tghEFQ1WnC_664mpNYUdq6vsWCtx8NupadmRwXnW5wHAPEbVvcSKA/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT2ARMTJMRYIwWCupTQKSplot6B39lv2Koma5VS6TaWOGXyV-J3paWjtJBwELhlZx2-s6MOx3I4bV02nptHadHjL2tghEFQ1WnC_664mpNYUdq6vsWCtx8NupadmRwXnW5wHAPEbVvcSKA/s1600/1.png" height="640" width="496" /></a></div>
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The years with a match are pretty few and far between. What really interests me is that 2007-2008 is a close match and had an extremely strong -QBO. Some of the other years that match up are 1979-1980, 1974-1975, and 1970-1971. Here is a run down of how much snow fell in NYC those years and which month was the snowiest.</div>
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*07-08 11.9" (Feb 9.0")</div>
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*79-80 12.8" (Mar 4.6")</div>
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*74-75 13.1" (Feb 10.6")</div>
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*70-71 15.5" (Jan 11.4")</div>
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Each of the years season snow totals were about half of New York City's average snowfall. That is not a good sign. Interesting enough as the QBO began to weaken in the middle and late winter it finally allowed for bigger snow storms and colder weather. I take this as a sign that our snowiest month is yet to come in NJ. Just remember these are New York's averages and we get about double the snowfall per season so this is just to get an idea of what the trend is. </div>
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I need to do some more research on this. If what I'm seeing here has any merit this winter is not going to be a very memorable one... I need to figure out if the other years had signals that match up with this season, if that's the case my winter forecast is a bust.<br />
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<br />Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-33228966796213152032014-12-21T22:04:00.000-05:002014-12-21T22:04:40.695-05:00A quick meteorology lesson...<span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14.4444446563721px; line-height: 21.466667175293px;">Right now the southern portion of NJ is seeing the coldest temperatures. Why? Clear skies there have allowed for heat to escape while up north the cloudy conditions act like a blanket trapping the warmer air. Some places in South Jersey saw 40 degrees for highs and are currently at 23 degrees while Netcong saw a high of 30 and is currently at 28 during the same time frame. Now that's why I love meteorology!</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKHtWSaOvYUa1k5RTzagfGDgETROgtNiFOEQTPZeQ2i_0gxT3ae4HlmFIKQwTWWayCMPcEkDTBBfMNcM4QtksqkGyqygRiHHmO1aCjsCl7qterVnRdXxzjJWWGIbbEITcstE0X76k9yuRZ/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKHtWSaOvYUa1k5RTzagfGDgETROgtNiFOEQTPZeQ2i_0gxT3ae4HlmFIKQwTWWayCMPcEkDTBBfMNcM4QtksqkGyqygRiHHmO1aCjsCl7qterVnRdXxzjJWWGIbbEITcstE0X76k9yuRZ/s1600/1.png" height="279" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-88657397135933800992014-12-18T19:40:00.000-05:002014-12-18T19:40:20.421-05:00Will we have a white Christmas?My last post talked about a potential storm for this weekend that the Euro was catching onto. This storm however will not effect us here in New Jersey. The Euro was wrong this time around and yes the GFS model was correct the entire time. I find that odd considering it's been the complete opposite this season.<br />
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Below is the map for the "storm" this Sunday off the Euro. Significant change!<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXcXtUfEJwTzrZQfPc4cPoVR0j0F2pMGghTCaGIMxIentiTu1Onx2Sh4ssQxSLaNlQrMkWh7ZoyOJZv9cnlckBMJ96oIyyNrXIdGYZs7aNf9oUM50bNivQop1D2qZPTSFqQkIIXkBACVNh/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXcXtUfEJwTzrZQfPc4cPoVR0j0F2pMGghTCaGIMxIentiTu1Onx2Sh4ssQxSLaNlQrMkWh7ZoyOJZv9cnlckBMJ96oIyyNrXIdGYZs7aNf9oUM50bNivQop1D2qZPTSFqQkIIXkBACVNh/s1600/1.png" /></a></div>
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So will we be able to get snow on the ground for Christmas? Our next system could clip the eastern seaboard on Tuesday but temperatures look marginal at best, and even if we did squeeze out the 1" necessary for a "white Christmas" I highly doubt it would make it till the 25th. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCvwzjn0Kd2ET0zNTV68U4rICaogi_cJoHMHaVTKHVy264yIyZWQ-2b7V-krVPMYcm0zAKI2ZpDM4aPZo5lRK-cpnmGPbfMVWlNEOQMcz8kxjs08_Hqbfu1j5KkvGO1Gx9-Pf7YlfF8Hkl/s1600/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCvwzjn0Kd2ET0zNTV68U4rICaogi_cJoHMHaVTKHVy264yIyZWQ-2b7V-krVPMYcm0zAKI2ZpDM4aPZo5lRK-cpnmGPbfMVWlNEOQMcz8kxjs08_Hqbfu1j5KkvGO1Gx9-Pf7YlfF8Hkl/s1600/2.png" /></a></div>
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On Christmas Eve it looks like it will be miserable outside. A good night to just stay home and watch a good movie with the family. The rain will even be falling as far north as Vermont and Maine.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZ5itSjw-Zq1fVsjQh-WFtJSrTM4Sj9rf5yQQH8inzeNUxD213g2b0t9irBRYvQV_50Vxmcib8VvniryNUBkrTLIWAiDfL7jXbCSiZf-x1g4x16JTduom0MzStUScAp4ZgW7RzA-xufLSd/s1600/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZ5itSjw-Zq1fVsjQh-WFtJSrTM4Sj9rf5yQQH8inzeNUxD213g2b0t9irBRYvQV_50Vxmcib8VvniryNUBkrTLIWAiDfL7jXbCSiZf-x1g4x16JTduom0MzStUScAp4ZgW7RzA-xufLSd/s1600/3.png" /></a></div>
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The probability of a white Christmas looks very low, unless by chance the tail end of this system could put down a quick inch. I would say chances are below 20%.</div>
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Now, will it ever snow? The system to watch right now is for December 26th. The set up looks much better for a northeast snow event and plenty of cold air should be in place by then. After this storm system temperatures really start to take a plunge and it looks like winter really gets cranking. </div>
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<br />Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3727740279980388767.post-43813353994421269182014-12-14T16:48:00.000-05:002014-12-14T16:48:40.232-05:00"Winter" So FarI say "Winter" because it hasn't even started yet! Let's recap where we are at right now and compare to the epic season we had last year.<br />
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<span style="color: red;">As of December 15th:</span><br />
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<u>Last Year:</u><br />
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Snowfall: 13.4"<br />
Days of snow cover: 17<br />
Days below freezing: 15<br />
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<u>This Year:</u><br />
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Snowfall: 11.6"<br />
Days of snow cover: 13<br />
Days below freezing: 8<br />
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So as of today we are currently behind where we were last year. Last year mid December was cold and snowy, how ever this year it's been more moderate (it hasn't been "warm") with more in the way of rain. By the time we hit Christmas Day last year we had no snow on the ground and winter didn't really get cranking again until mid January. I think we are going to play a game of catch up now...<br />
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I have been persistent in saying that this season will NOT be as cold as last season, so we won't catch up with the days of below freezing high temperatures. I'm very confident though that we will surpass last years snow fall total and days of snow cover comparing it to last year by January 15th. You can quote me on this.<br />
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The European model already has it's eyes on a major winter storm THIS COMING WEEKEND. Right now the other models are bullish on the idea, but they will all come into agreement over the next couple ideas. This storm system will make the turn up the coast and is capable of dumping double digit snow totals.<br />
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I hate to get ahead of myself but the rest of this month from this weekend on looks perfect for winter weather lovers and January doesn't look to disappoint either. You better believe I'm in storm watch mode so keep checking back. If you want a good forecast that is.... :)</div>
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<br />Darren Millironhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08401595819103446990noreply@blogger.com0