North Jersey Weather Outlook

Snow Update 1/21/12

2012-01-20T10:48:00.007-05:00

It looks as if the first significant snowfall of the "winter" season will occur this weekend finally. It's not a block buster by any means but definitely a plowable snowfall. Most models agree on the liquid precipitation amounts and the type of precip.

Here is a look at the 12z NAM frames (1/20/12):

Clearly an all snow event for North Jersey with a atmospheric soundings looking like this:

The solid thick black line is freezing (0 Celsius) and the two blue lines are dew point and temperature. When the two blue lines come together near the surface it means precipitation is falling and when it's all below the freezing mark then it's all snow! I did put the empire state building in there to give you a sense of what your looking at. It's basically a vertical profile of the column of air over your head.

In the sounding there IS a mid level inversion layer which will not effect us in North Jersey but as you get south of I-78 the soundings show the inversion above freezing around 850 mb. This means a change over to wintry mix for those areas therefore snow totals will be lessened the further south you go of 78.

We now know the precip type and the fact a storm is coming! Now how much? First off we need to look the QPF map which is just the total amount of "liquid" precip that falls during the duration of the storm. And here it is off the NAM:

Total precip amounts range from 0.60"-0.80" across the area. Now time for the snow map!

In this storm it doesn't matter your elevation very much but rather your latitude. The axis of snow will be a west to east line so as you make your way south the totals are decreased due to mixing with sleet, freezing rain, and even just plain rain south of Trenton. The higher elevations will be sharply colder than the valleys and for that reason I increased snow totals to 6"-8" for areas above 1,000 feet.

That's it for now. After this storm there will be a warm up so don't expect it to last very long! The pattern does show signs of major improvement so hopefully this leads to a snowy February?

Short - Medium Range Forecast

2012-01-17T17:59:00.007-05:00

My lack of blogging this winter is an indication of very little action going on weather wise. In my last blog I did forecast these most recent cold snaps and also predicted that we would receive very little snow in the forecast period. Since then the NW corner has received under 1" of snow for the month of January. We do have two chances to increase the monthly total in the coming week, but after that it looks like the last week of January could bring warmer temperatures.

First let's get into the clipper system for Thursday. It will produce a few snow showers as it moves on through but with little precipitation to show for it. The system does start to intensify as it gets out over the ocean but too late to give us any meaningful snowfall. Most places will receive very little snow with some lucky folks who get an inch in a heavier batch of precipitation.

Thursday's Clipper: 12z NMM

The second event occurs on Saturday, which could give us the first significant snowfall of meteorological winter!? It almost certainly starts as snow but midway through some models suggest a change over to wintry mix which would reduce snow totals down drastically. Other models like the GFS suggest we stay all snow (just barely though).

Above is the 18z GFS MSLP map and atmospheric profile. In this model the storm stays all snow north of I-80 and west of I-287 putting down 3"-6" inches. There is still a certain amount of uncertainty with this storm and it needs to watched for slight shifts in the exact track. As of right now all indications point toward an accumulating snow event with possible change over to wintry mix. Check back for more on this storm tomorrow.

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Just to see how this winter is shaping up I made a chart comparing the last three winters up to January 18th for Netcong NJ. Numbers are well behind in days below freezing and days of snow cover yet only a few inches shy snowfall wise thanks to the October snowstorm.

**Check back for the long range forecast and update on Saturday's storm tomorrow.**

Long Range Outlook

2011-12-28T18:35:00.000-05:00

Will it ever get cold?????

I want to start off with the 50 mb stratospheric temperature anomalies. Watch the loop below as the first "decent" stratospheric warming event of the season is taking place. This is in relation to pressure patterns over the arctic which most of us know as the Arctic Oscillation. What does this all even mean? Warming north of 50 degrees in the stratosphere is a clearly visible way to identify a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) and that translates into cold and snow, and we will test that theory. I've actually done some extensive research on the AO which I presented at the National Weather Association in Birmingham Alabama back in October and this is just another typical event. The loop below will self update everyday so keep coming back to the blog to check on it's progress.

The above event should translate in an all out arctic air mass invasion for the eastern half of North America and I'm talking days where the high temperature struggles to break 15 degrees over the NW corner and Eastern areas will have a hard time breaking 20, even into NYC. Now let's just see if the models agree with me.

Very latest GFS:

The map above is for January 3rd and the cold outbreak should last at least several days, and that means several days of continuous snowmaking which means resorts in the region will begin to open terrain daily as ideal snowmaking conditions will persist for a minimum of 100 straight hours. So yes, the AO goes negative and we get our cold. This will be the coldest air of the season and very well could be the coldest of the year with lows into the single digits and negatives.

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When will we finally get some snow? In the winter that is.

So it looks like the cold will finally arrive, but what about snow? With only 0.5" inches of snow in December for NW Jersey (more toward High Point), this will end as one of the least snowiest Decembers ever. NW Jersey is double the snowfall we had last year and NE Jersey is about quadruple less than last year at this time due to that post Christmas storm. So far eastern sections are around average in terms of seasonal snowfall for the year but western areas are about double the average. So far we really are not doing that bad thanks to our pre Halloween Nor' Easter.

These past few months have exhibited a constant +NAO, +AO, and a relatively neutral PNA. Basically that means the eastern half of the country as a whole will have mild and little to no snow. But I believe a change is in order and forecast models agree.

The AO will crash which is a good sign for cold. The PNA is heading more neutral and exactly what we want to see, but I have little hope for the NAO. Without blocking storms will forced off the Southeast coast or ride up west of the region putting us into the warm side of the system. With little blocking that means coastal storms will probably not be our primary source of snowfall over the next few weeks, instead we need to put our hope into Alberta Clipper systems.

Usually fast movers and lacking moisture these systems usually bring anywhere from a dusting to around six inches, but usually no more. With clippers snow is the primary type of precip and sometimes a little rain on the southern end, so we won't have to worry about it getting to warm for snow. In fact the models show several chances of snowfall in the coming week from these types of storms. I'm not even going to post model maps of these system because they look like small increments of snow. Something like an inch here, half an inch, and maybe up to two inches in spots. Instead I'll give you the link to my model page. Just check out the NAM and GFS SLP maps and pray for a negative NAO, because until then the prospects for a major snowstorm looks bleak at best.

http://hurri.kean.edu/~keancast/newmodels/home.html

That's it for now. I haven't been blogging a lot this season because I've had nothing to blog about! There were times last year where I would post up to three times a day! But this season it's only been about once a week. Keep your head up and keep reminding yourself, winter only started a few days ago...

Simply An Update

2011-12-16T17:23:00.013-05:00

Well now that the past storm is long forgotten it's time to move on. I forecasted the snow totals way too high needless to say. Highest amounts where High Point with 2.5", Budd Lake with 1.0", and 0.5" from multiple locations. I was thinking about 3"-6" for the immediate area but the surface layer held too warm for too long and gave any accumulating snow a difficult time. Places higher in the Poconos received up to 6" and the Catskills 8". In the end elevation was key with that storm, something Jersey really doesn't have much off...

Now let's move on to what we are all waiting for...

SNOW OUTLOOK!

To put this years "winter" season in perspective for everyone let's compare it to last year. It was colder and much snowier right? That's what everyone keeps telling me but as of this date last year we received only 0.75" inches of snow fall. So far this year we are at 10"-18" inches. Last year cold air came earlier and Mountain Creek opened by the second week of December, but this year it will open the third week. That's just one week! So the ski resorts are delayed slightly, I've seen worse.

First off there is a chance for some snow flurries this weekend as a weak clipper system moves to our south. Nothing to get excited for but it's snow. After that another storm rides up the Appalachians by the middle of the week and brings us just plain old rain and temperatures back into the 50's for highs.

Just a few days later, on Christmas eve, the models suggest another storm:

If there are any storms in the future capable of a major dump of snow it will would be this storm. Forecasted a week from today it has the classic high pressure to the north and winds from the north northeast, the tropical moisture, and plenty of cold to tap into. If a storm does form in this type of pattern it will be a complete bomb. And by that I mean rapid pressure drop and heavy snows. For now we need to watch this closely. If all these ingredients can come together just right we have a good shot of a White Christmas.

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***SNOW MAKING UPDATE***

Mountain Creek was able to put out some serious snow with the past cold air outbreak but it just was not enough to open. This weekend forecasts are calling for highs in the upper 30's and low in the mid 20's. Just yesterday they forecasted to be in the 40's and low's in the upper 20's. The reason? The online forecasts are adjusted to climatology and personally that just doesn't work. Saturday for example should only get to 32 for a high and 21 for a low. Sunday's high will only be 29 and the low near 17. This means a solid 48 hour snow making period and means they should have enough snow to open by Friday, and if we are lucky maybe some natural snowfall?

This weekend:

Check back for more updates. May the weather be with you!

Here Comes More Snow!

2011-12-07T10:51:00.009-05:00

This storm has given me a really big head ache. North West Jersey is right on the boarder line of getting a good solid cover of snow or getting shafted. This was one of the hardest forecasts I ever worked on but I think I have it all figured out. Check out the NAM for 18 hrs out, which is sometime tonight after the evening commute.

Just looking at the model is impossible to tell the precipitation type. Up until this point its rain but let's look at the sounding for the same hour.

Im actually surprised but it shows a snow sounding with no questions asked. It is a fast moving system and hour 24 on the models the back has already pulled out of the area. This leave us with about a 6 hour window of snowfall tonight.

(Hour 24)

Now let's look at the QPF (total liquid precip) that falls as snow.

It has most of north Jersey in the 0.75" - 1.25" range. Now take in consideration a warm ground, a wet surface from rain, and only marginal air temps. The liquid to snow ratios are going to be pretty low meaning a wet heavy snowfall. Elevation will help in this storm but more importantly is your location west. After hours of being a computer nerd this is what my snow map looks like.

Of course a slight shift in the current path of the storm could either give us more in the way of snowfall or leave us with very little. But it does looks as if western areas get the most either way.

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***** SNOWMAKING UPDATE*******************

I want to talk a little about the snow making potential at local ski resorts. It looks like the guns will be on this weekend but unfortunately only at night and morning and only a total of around 18 hours of a wet bulb of 27 or less. Not enough by any means for the resorts to open. After this cold shot its back to above average and in my personal opinion the local resorts won't open until Christmas day or so.

Is Winter Back?

2011-12-05T17:46:00.002-05:00

The models are hinting at a potential snowstorm come Thursday. Let's give it till tomorrow and see if the models come into alignment.

Waiting For Winter

2011-11-25T20:43:00.003-05:00

While Killington Vermont has 111 acres of skiing open Mountain Creek has yet to even turn on it's powerful snowmaking system. It has nothing to do with the resort itself but the lack of cold air we have had. So far this season we have only had a 20 hour period of potential snowmaking conditions and that was after the major Halloween snowstorm where temps dipped into the low 20's. The fact is it's still fall and winter doesn't technically start for another month yet we are currently 10x to 18x above our average snowfall for the season thus far. If it didn't snow until the middle of January we would still be above average for the season!

It seems like my blog posts increase 95% when an extreme event approaches, or when weather begins to get interesting. Probably lack of motivation but would anyone really want to read a blog about how dry and seasonable it's going to be? The reason I mention this is because I am getting excited, and for good reason.

A pattern that often produces cold and major snowstorm is a -AO, -NAO, and +PNA, especially all at the same time. If you look at the chart below it shows exactly that, and that's why early December will provide snow and cold enough weather to allow for around the clock snowmaking. The only problem is trying to keep the cold air in place across the east once it arrives, which may be difficult.

The lack of any stratospheric warming event indicates a lack of strong blocking, therefore when cold air does arrive it doesn't last long. Essentially the arctic air will hit hard for a few days then continue it's journey out to the Atlantic where it will modify and lose it's arctic characteristics.

The models do suggest some interesting weather as we head into December, and I agree. All we can do now is sit back, wait, and enjoy what "nice" weather we have left. Check back in a few days for updates.

Thanksgiving? Could it snow?

2011-11-17T23:10:00.002-05:00

Once again the european model has caught eye of a potential snowstorm. It's only one model and one run but this is the same model that forecasted the Halloween storm a week prior. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Winter Outlook 2011-2012

2011-11-05T13:55:00.011-04:00

This winter outlook is much shorter than ones in the past because I already post a blog which I called my pre-winter forecast. That goes more into depth into the main reasons behind my thinking and you can check it out here: Pre Winter Forecast

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This is the first time I have ever done a winter forecast already having a major snowstorm behind us so I will be including that event into my snowfall prediction. Let's start off with the projected winter season temperatures:

The map above does show the heart of the cold this winter over the upper mid west and great lakes region. This will result in some major lake effect snow outbreaks and a storm track that brings the snowiest conditions to the Appalachian Mountains. The early part of the winter willcome with much colder than average temperatures and above average snowfall right up to the holidays. During the heart of winter there may be prolonged periods of ridging over the east which will help to bring the average winter temp up to just below average.

Forecasted precipitation from average:

Unfortunately for Texas the drought will continue through the winter months as the northern tier gets their fair share of precip. The lakes region will end up well above average associated with the lake effect snow events.

I promised a short winter forecast this year so I don't put everyone to sleep so here is my project winter snowfall forecast for the area:

(**Just a note on snowfall. Just one snow event can drastically alter the accuracy of this map and it's not easy to forecast snowfall within a ten inch range. Last years map was bust on eastern sections mainly because of nearly 30" of snow during the post Christmas blizzard)

Winter Has Just Begun

2011-11-02T21:39:00.004-04:00

Unfortunately I wasn't able to work on my winter forecast due to lack of power. I plan on getting it finish by this weekend if all goes planned. I think I've had enough snow for now but I do want to recap the storm a little and talk about a major pattern shift coming mid month.

Snow totals across the state from the October snow storm:

Basically the higher terrain got hit the hardest with the storm and most of Sussex County for that matter. I picked up 16" at my house, around 18" in West Milford, and even Central Park picked up 2.9". The totals aren't nothing compared to what we see in the winter but since the leaves have yet to drop the situation went from plowing and shoveling to all out destruction. Basically this set records for everywhere. If this had been January then the snow totals would be measured in feet.

This storm made us realized how fragile civilization really is. When the power is out basically your back in the olden days. Food went bad in refrigerators (even in stores), gas stations ran out of gas (if they had power to pump it), roads were impassable (that's an under statement), and for the first time I felt at the mercy of the weather. Some roads are still in bad shape and many residents are still without power. Stores that don't have power are losing a lot of money and employees aren't getting paid to do nothing. I even ran out of money. Without power ATM's and credit machines weren't working, forcing people to drive long distances just to get some cash out of a working machine.

Want a hot meal? Can't cook without power, and neither can Burger King or Ted's Deli. Want milk? Well the trucks can't make deliveries without fuel that was hard to come by and stores can't keep food cold without power. Want that tree off your house? Your local tree cutter isbooked for the next month. Want heat in your house? The stores are all sold out of generators and kerosene heaters. This was the most destructive storm in north Jersey I have ever seen, and may end up being the most costly of all time. We are at the mercy of mother nature and this storm was a harsh reminder of that.

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Let's move on to the long range outlook. First let's take a look a the three teleconnections that affect our region the most:

As seen above the NAO and AO both take a nose dive into negative territory. This can only mean one thing, a pattern change. The NAO going negative will allow for storm to ride up the coast line and the AO will essentially displace the cold air from the pole to lower latitudes. This is will be the first real arctic outbreak of the winter season. The values go negative next week and we will allow for about a weeks lag, so around November 15th place like Mountain Creek and pretty much every resort on the east coast can turn their snowmaking systems on full blast.

One thing we want to look for is a stratospheric warming between 10mb-100mb, but I have yet to see one of any significance. Give it a week and a major event will be occurring over the western Pacific.

By the second half of this month we will be talking about snow again but by that time the leaves would have dropped from the trees so widespread damage is not likely.

Batten Down The Hatches... (Snow Map)

2011-10-28T18:46:00.011-04:00

Let's talk snow!? First off I am much more worried about this storm than any others I have personally experienced. And that's because the leaves have not fallen off the trees yet. In fact some urban areas with exotic and invasive tree species still have green! It only takes around 2"-3" of snow to take down a tree with leaves. Now what if you get 8"-14"? And some models even suggest up to 20" in some locals (highest terrain). This is a major problem, and power outages are not just likely but certain. Here aresome tips:

-Take down any outdoor screen houses/umbrellas

-Don't park under tree limbs!

-Keep the space heater ready, if power goes out so does heat!

-If you need to keep food items cold outside works. Unless a bear comes...

-No matter your age, take breaks while shoveling. This snow is often called "cardiac snow".

-Do not walk/stand under stressed trees with foliage

-Above all, don't under estimate the storm just because it's October...

Elevation will still play a major role in this storm, but so does the exact track. I'm going to take the average liquid equivalent of all models and use that to draw my map while keeping terrain into consideration. Let's look atthe QPF maps:

NAM: (1.5"-2.00")

NMM: (2.00"-3.00"+)

GFS: (1.50"-2.50")

JMA: (2.00+)

Now that we have a good idea of precip amounts let's look at the sounding:

Above is a vertical profile of the atmosphere and the red link represent freezing. The long blue line are temp and dew point. When they come close to each other it means the air is saturated, in this case it's not clouds but HEAVY precip. If you look closely the lowest level is above freezing to start the storm. This means areas below 1,000 feet will start off as rain. Above that expect all snow from the beginning. To those of you below 1,000 don't fear, the rain falling will actually cool the surface quickly and change it over to snow. It's better known as evaporational cooling.

Let's progress to the height of the storm:

Now that's what I call a PERFECT snow sounding. No significant upper level inversions, which means no mixing! At this point in time snowfall rates could be near 2"-3" an hour! Highest elevation will be colder than lower ones, which means higher snow ratios and thus deeper snow.

Now that we cleared all that up let's look at the snow map/forecast:

Map considers these circumstances:

Most affected (Morris, Warren, Sussex, western Passaic)

-Average precip total (QPF) for entire area = 2.125"

-Snow ratio of 8:1 to 10:1 by hour 6 of event

-Surface temp tomorrow for areas <500' = 34.1

-Surface temp tomorrow for areas 500'-1,000' = 32.5

-Surface temp tomorrow for areas 1,000'-1,500'= 30.8

-Also expect gusty winds out of NE

-Thunder snow is being forecasted

-White out conditions at times

Be safe and stay classy...

P.S. What do you think of this new format for snow map blogs? Does it help with understanding the event? Comment or send email to millirod@kean.edu

It's Snow Time!

2011-10-27T15:09:00.005-04:00

Well, the chances of it snowing look pretty good for the area. Actually, I would say it's almost certain at this point. The european model was the first to catch onto the system and now most operational models are showing the same scenario. The only question is how much snow will fall?

Let's take a look at the latest GFS:

Essentially all models are showing this now with the exception of the NAM. It will probably catch on by the 18z run time. Basically we just need to know how much liquid precipitation is forecast and translate that into snowfall amounts. The GFS forecasts around an inch liquid for Sussex County, so that would mean around 4"-10" inches of snow! It's a large range because lower elevations *will* get less snow than the higher terrain because the temperature factor.

Take a look this sounding for Sussex County:

Any forecasts you see of rain/snow/mix are completely inaccurate. This storm will bring all snow to the area with no mixing. Nothing even suggests such a thing so I'm not sure what those forecasts are about. Anyhow, the sounding above shows there will be no warm layer inversion so it's either rain or snow. No sleet or freezing rain thank god! High temperatures forecasted by NWS are in the mid and upper 40's! That's wrong. When the precip falls (especially heavy) it will cool the atmosphere and temps will struggle to rise above 32 degrees in the higher terrain and 35 in valleys!

I still need to make a snow map. It will be out tomorrow.

P.S. It looks the rain today may end as a brief period of snow in some spots around 00z!

Is It Time For Snow Already?

2011-10-25T21:30:00.004-04:00

Let's get this straight. Some computer models suggest a storm moves through Thursday and brings our area mostly rain with a potential change over on the back side for parts of Sussex County. Personally I think the precipitation will end just before the cold air advances, essentially only bringing us a chilly rain event. Now currently there are two models that suggest a second system will ride up the coast and throw nearly an inch of liquid precipitation into cold air (this includes the entire state). Let's take a look at these models:

JMA (Japanese Model):

Okay so the model above shows high winds and nearly 20" inches of snow across New Jersey, which I do not believe. This model always has an issue with predicting total QPF (total precip) but the physics in the model seems to be somewhat trustworthy. The blizzard depicted above is not very likely, but it does help support the idea of some kind of snow event.

ECMWF (European Model):

Above is the snowfall forecast for hour 105 and it's only a three hour increment. The total snowfall predicted by the EURO is 6"-10"! This model has been consistent for the past several runs, something that meteorologists look for when analyzing model output. Also the EURO is known for having better physics in the model than most others.

So far no other models have gone to this idea, instead they just pass off the storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast. As of right now it's too far out for making any kind of calls, but check back tomorrow as I will be posting on the very latest model output and give you my personal opinion.

P.S. Winter Forecast should be out by the weekend

First Snowfall of the Season?

2011-10-24T23:15:00.003-04:00

Take a quick look at the sounding. It suggests snow Friday morning for NW Jersey and even into the city! Check back later tomorrow. It's time to start blogging :)

Time For Winter Forecast Pondering...

2011-10-04T20:46:00.000-04:00

This isn't my official winter forecast just yet. Consider this more of a pre-cast of sorts. Let's start off with the ENSO or El Nino Southern Oscillation. The ENSO phases La Nina/El Nino are based off whether the surface temperatures in the Pacific are colder or warmer than the normal. The Pacific is the worlds largest ocean and changes in surface temperatures can greatly affect the weather here in New Jersey. Let's look at the PDO first since it has a strong correlation with the ENSO phase. A warm phase in the PDO is when the water temps off the west of Canada and Alaska are warmer than normal, thus El Nino's tend to be stronger and occur more often. A cold phase is the exact opposite and allows for more and stonger La Nina's.

As we can see from the chart above we are in a cold phase of the PDO, and that means La Nina's should dominate the Pacific over the next 10-20 years since the PDO works in 30 year intervals typically. This years ENSO phase should be similar to last years La Nina which spells colder weather for us here in Jersey, or at least for the first half of the winter.

I always look at the current solar activity when making a winter forecast. Little is known about how the solar cycles affect the climate, but it doesn't hurt to look at it.

Above is a graph of the last solar cycle that spiked in late 2003. That solar cycle maximum was much weaker than what we saw in the 90's. A typical solar cycle lasts for around 11 years from minimum to minimum but the most recent went for over 13 years, something we haven't seen since the Dalton Minimum in the early 1800's. You may have heard of some solar storms lately but it's just the beginning of solar cycle 24 which is forecast to be much weaker than any other in modern history. Just take a look.

What will be the affects? It's almost impossible to say for sure, but past studies have suggested that low solar activity could throw the planet into a cooling phase. A good paper I suggest is by David Archibald who has been extremely accurate with his predictions over the past several years. Even better than NASA's predictions which originally forecasted a strong solar cycle which would peak in 2012. That's not going to happen, not even close. "Solar cycle 24: Implications for the United States" is the paper by Archibald and can be found on his website: http://www.davidarchibald.info/

A winter can be cold, but that doesn't necessarily make it a good one. There have been plenty of cold winters that lacked precipitation. That brings me to the next items on my list, the NAO or "North Atlantic Oscillation" and the AO or "Arctic Oscillation". Both of these have negative and positive phases, and for New Jersey we like to see them negative together. Over the past two winters we have had some crazy weather events and most of them were a cause of stratospheric warming events at higher latitudes which affected the AO and NAO. I know, you have no idea what I just said. I'll explain.

The animation above shows temperature anomalies in the stratosphere (up high in the atmosphere). Red is a warming event and blue is cooling. If you look closely at warming events in the animation you see how the jet stream buckles where ever they pop up. This is called blocking and allows for some wacky weather. Such as Mountain Creek in NJ getting 28" of snow and Killington VT gets 2" of plain rain during the same event! It happened in February of 2010 and guess why it happened? That's right, a blocking event directly related to a strong stratospheric warming event. For you global warming fanatics, no this is not because of global warming. A warming stratosphere happens when the troposphere (the surface, where we live!) becomes colder than normal. The opposite goes for cooling events in the stratosphere.

Last year these stratospheric warming events continued despite the end of a El Nino and a start of La Nina. A major warming (though not as major as the year before) event happened in mid-December followed by 32" inches of snow in eastern part of New Jersey. January brought more warming events which lead to the snowiest month in history for much of the state. The signs are obvious and need to be looked at with a fine tooth comb. Looking through all the signs, only one thing has changed since last winter. That being the phase of the QBO or "quasi-biennial oscillation". And it's shift points toward a more ominous winter than last.

The QBO is basically winds between 10mb-100mb. These winds shift from easterly to westerly every 20 to 36 months. As of August the winds officially became easterly, just like they were in the winter of 2009-2010. Last winter I only expected average snowfall for the region and we went over by about 10"-15". This is because last winters westerly phase of the QBO should have helped to suppress stratospheric warming events. Therefore winter shouldn't have been as bad as 2009-2010, and for NW Jersey it wasn't! I can't say the same for NE Jersey. We have entered a easterly phase of QBO and it means more and stronger strat warming events.

This was only my pre-cast. My official winter forecast will be out later this month. There is a lot to talk about and I couldn't possibly do it in one blog post without putting everyone to sleep. If you ask me, this coming winter might leave last year in the dust...

I'm still here

2011-09-21T18:19:00.002-04:00

Okay, I have some good news! After some issues with my blogger account I finally was able to log in today!

I'm currently working on the blog to tidy it up and expect my winter forecast in the next week or two! It's amazing how fast the summer went.

Snowmap

2011-03-31T19:13:00.002-04:00

Sorry it's a late but this was not easy!

The higher elevations currently have moderate to heavy snow right now and it will continue till tomorrow morning. Unfortunately it looks like the storm won't bring as much total precip as originally though so totals in most areas will not be to big of a deal. Still one heck of an April fools joke...

Winters Revenge (Part 5)

2011-03-29T22:00:00.010-04:00

When I started the winters revenge blogs 11 days ago I knew we were going back into a snowy and cold pattern but nothing like this. Last week NW Jersey added up 6"-15" inches of snow and I still have 3.5" on the ground today! That tells you that it's been very cold for March snow to stick around this long, it's almost April for crying out loud! Now we are going to add more, and possible A LOT more. The tanking of the NAO is to blame.

Let's look at all the models at Fridays storm system.

Euro:

JMA:

GEM:

GFS:

I think I have made my point. A storm is coming up the coast and it's seen on every model except the NAM. Currently I'm waiting for the 00z NAM to come out to see if it has changed to come in line with every other model.

The problem with this storm is that it needs to pass through the "key hole", a track where it doesn't bring us too much rain yet not to far out to sea to bring us little snow. I think this will happen and that means most of NW Jersey will get significant snow accumulations. The higher up you go, the more you will get.

Right away we should look at the precip type, and we will do that using a sounding.

The yellow line is the freezing mark and the blue is the cold air. The long pink lines are the temperature and dew point and both remain below freezing in the entire air column all the way to the surface for all hours of the event except the first few hours of light precip, which may fall as rain. We just determined that this is a mostly SNOW event! Let's figure 10" inches of snow per 1" inch of liquid because the ground did refreeze and it's snow covered still in most areas.

Time to look at total QPF, remember we have 10:1 ratios.

With around an inch of liquid forecasted you do the math...

Check back tomorrow for my preliminary snow map and update on the situation. By then the exact track should be determined and snowfall amounts can be forecasted.

Winters Revenge (Part 4)

2011-03-26T16:13:00.003-04:00

I really cannot believe this pattern we are going into. North west Jersey has gotten 6"-15" of snow this past week and it looks likely that next week will bring even more! This is off the European model for Wednesday:

This looks like it could bring a few inches to the area and there is a possible late week storm threat that could really put down the snow across the whole northeast.

For those of you who want spring soon (me included), it's not coming. There is strong reason to believe that this April might be one of the top 10 coldest since records have been kept. Along with the cold is the constant threat of snowstorms, we aren't out of the water till May. As I look out my window now I have 6.5" inches of snow still on the ground and today's daytime high only reached 31 degrees. The coldest spring day I can remember while the sun was shinning bright!

Keep checking back in, next week could be more interesting than last.

Winter's Revenge (Part 3)

2011-03-22T17:32:00.010-04:00

Well winter is back, again. The last system brought some "decent" snowfall to the higher elevations with 4.7" in Wantage, 3.8" in Lake Hopatcong, and 2.8" in Randolph. Places in lower elevations received less like Newton with 1.8". Season totals across NW Jersey are around 50" with more toward the eastern sections and we should break 60" on average by the time the snow season is over with.

Let's talk about tomorrow system. First off elevation will be KEY in this storm as the surface temperatures will be too warm to support all snow in places below 500 feet. Other than the surface conditions the upper air looks great to support wintry precipitation. Take a look at this sounding off the 12z NAM:

The yellow shows the freezing line and the blue lines (temperature and dew point) remain below that point except at the surface. This is for Newark and indicates snow and rain making it difficult to accumulate. Heavy bands of precip will help to cool the surface layer for brief periods and allow snow to accumulate in those areas. Now let's look at the sounding for Sussex County:

NOW this is an all snow sounding for the whole event since the temp remains below freezing all the way to the surface.

Since we confirmed snow for the entire event let's check out how much precipitation will fall inliquid form. It looks to be around an inch for the area, which typically equals 10 inches of snow in the winter but it's spring. So figure 5"-8" in the areas that remain at or below freezing.

NWS MAP:

The snow map:

It going to be a decent storm by March standards. Of course if you have any questions or comments you can comment below, email me, or find me on facebook. Have a safe commute tomorrow!

P.S. Next snowstorm is already on the maps for early week:

Snow Map

2011-03-20T19:52:00.002-04:00

Winter's Revenge (Part 2)

2011-03-19T23:25:00.006-04:00

I'm going to be honest. The next week and a half look more like mid February to me on the models and that means multiple snow events and plenty of arctic air, not a polar air massive. The first event on Monday night will start as snow, then go to sleet, and eventually end as a light rain but not before several inches of wintry precipitation accumulate. Higher elevations will likely get the most.

(NAM for Monday night)

(Sounding supports mostly wintry precip)

The second storm is possible Wednesday-Thursday which could bring significant snowfall to the area. With the snow comes temperatures that might not exceed freezing which is uncommon for the spring season. The euro below shows a huge snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic and northeast as well as the DGEX:

Looks like just because spring starts tomorrow doesn't mean winter is over. Well actually it does, but you get the idea...

Winters Revenge

2011-03-18T21:23:00.002-04:00

This weather has everyone fooled. It's still winter for a few more days and it's going to come back with full force (by March standards). The threat looms for an east coast snowstorm late next week accompanied by noticeable temperature drop.

More information in the next few days as the situation becomes clearer.

March On

2011-03-05T16:33:00.004-05:00

Snow cover is gone in most areas except north facing terrain and areas in shade. Local resorts have a decent stock pile of snow which should last for the coming weeks, but the high March sun will rapidly melt most of it in the next 3-4 weeks. March is typically the snowiest month for higher elevations above 800 feet in NW Jersey while February is the snowiest for lower areas. Unfortunately this March does not look favorable for much snow anywhere in the region, although we can't turn our heads just yet.

Here is a look at the storm for Sunday: (Not wintry by any means)

After a solid dump of rain again this month another storm will unfold by weeks end, this one could be a candidate for higher elevation snow but it's way to early to really tell.

Now I do think the ski and snowboard season could last into late March this year. Reason is because it looks like a nice weather pattern is shaping up that would keep things cold (by spring standards) and could it bring some snow? Northwest Jersey is only around average for snowfall this season with totals around 49" and last year many places topped 80". Actually our season total this year is equal to what we received last February ALONE!

Spring is just about here so get your last turns in before your hitting yourself in the head come April!

Quick Update

2011-02-24T15:30:00.002-05:00

The storm will move in tonight and last through the day tomorrow. It will be an all rain event and most snow cover will be washed away. It's a sad thing, but a clipper system this weekend could bring us a little in the way of some snow. By the beginning of next week another storm will cut up through the great lakes and that is really going to hurt the snow base at the local resorts. Trails counts will fall drastically. I will post more updates as more information comes in.

Snow Map February 21st

2011-02-20T18:05:00.006-05:00

Let's start right off with the QPF for the next 36 hours. Just look at the totals over the mountain ridges in Pennsylvania. Over 3 inches of liquid, that's impressive!

For us here in NW Jersey the QPF is between 0.50"-0.75", and yes it will be all in snow form. National Weather Service is calling for sleet to mix in, but I just don't see that happening. In fact I have no idea where they even got the idea of mixing. Soundings like this one below for Sussex Airport (KFWN) tell us that the column of air will be below freezing all the way down to the surface.

To my knowledge this indicates all snow, and I'll put my money down on that! The liquid equivalent (QPF) suggests a snowstorm along the magnitude of 5"-8" but I'm going to be conservative with 3"-6".

P.S. The potential still looms for another storm by Friday. Of course the precipitation type depends on the exact track of the system.

Update

2011-02-18T22:24:00.001-05:00

In my last blog I promised as soon as the models showed a change in the path of the storm I would let you know. Well the 00z NAM looks very interesting to say the least. If this model run turns out to be correct than all the snow that melted could be replaced by Tuesday. I want to see more models and more runs before I make any final call.

The Run Down

2011-02-18T18:33:00.006-05:00

Ok, today was the last day of the warm spell and now the cold air will make a come back. A lot of snow cover was taken out in this melt down but I still 4.25" on the south side of my house and 9" on the north side (at 1,000 feet). Lower elevations and south facing terrain have lost snow cover already, and now people can once again see their lawns.

There is a storm on the way for the beginning of the week (double shot), but it's not looking very favorable on the models for NW Jersey right now. The first part rolls through Monday morning starting as snow to mix to rain with very little accumulation if any. The second piece comes through with much colder air but the models bring it right to our south producing a nice dump of snow for south Jersey.

Part 1:

Part 2:

Now keep in the mind the event is still 3 to 4 days out and thats plenty time for the models to change (as we have seen most of this year). Just keep checking back in. The minute things switch I'll be the first to let you know.

Little heads up, here a map for the end of the week.

It's still way to far out to decide track, precipitation type, and the specifics of the event. But there will be a late week storm, and I have a very close eye on this one.

Winter Returns?

2011-02-16T19:16:00.007-05:00

It's been two weeks since our last measurable snowfall and even with the "warm" temperatures most the area still has decent snow cover. As of 7:00 p.m. tonight I still have 9" inches of snow in my backyard and even more in my front yard on the north side of the property. I would guess that another 2" will melt tomorrow and 3"-4" on Friday, after that cold air returns for the weekend and snow cover will remain in places over 500 feet in elevation and also on north facing terrain.

In my last post I talked about the arctic oscillation (AO) switched back to positive and that is what has lead to this warming spell. I watch stratospheric warming very carefully now and I notice something happening over the pole. Its negative once again.

The black circle indicates a strengthening warming event in the stratosphere over the arctic.The perfect place for it as the cold air at the surface gets displaced to lower latitudes. Saturday will bring change as the blocking pattern over the pole begins to affect the current pattern. How you may ask? Take a look at the GFS for Monday night into Tuesday:

Keep checking back as I narrow down the specifics of the event. Hopefully we can get a good dump of snow out of this.

Cold And Dry

2011-02-08T22:41:00.003-05:00

Now that all the main drivers that started winter off so good have shifted phases the typical La Nina season is showing it's face. This means long periods of cold dry air with storms going out to sea, or storms tracking up the spine of the Appalachians bringing us snow to mix to rain. And this is the new pattern we are in, a pattern that only typically brings average snowfall to the region.

Above you can the current stratospheric temperatures over the past month. It starts off with warming over the pole then snaps to a cold phase over that same area. That was the end of our crazy weather pattern but there are hints that another warming event may send the AO and NAO back into negative territory. With both these blocking patterns in a positive phase the winter snow season will cease to exist.

There aren't any future up coming snow events in sight, just some cold air with storms being sent out to sea. We can take this time to relax and just get a break from shoveling and all the stress that goes with forecasting major winter events. Remember winter is only half way over...

No snow...

2011-02-05T10:39:00.002-05:00

Well todays storm took a much warmer path than the models were showing originally yesterday, which isn't a surprise to me. All we got was more freezing rain and sleet which is typical of La Nina and I think this is what most of the winter will be like from here on out. Of course we will get snow every so often, but the persistent dumps of snow and prolonged cold spells are thing of the past.

I originally forecasted a season where the snowfall would be slightly below average and the temperatures slightly colder than average. I still think by the end of the season temperatures will moderate and end up about where I though it would. Now most areas in NW Jersey is around 40" for the season, and the average is about 55" which I believe we will surpass.

Now that the snowy pattern is coming to an end, welcome to La Nina... Ice, Ice, and more Ice.

sNoW?

2011-02-04T15:32:00.006-05:00

As I look out my window I see a glacier, a 15"-18" snowpack that is so solid you can walk on top and not even make a footprint. That means there is a lot of water built up and melting will be a slow process, but can be accelerated by heavy rains. It doesn't look like we will be getting a heavy rain event anytime soon but we may see some rain on Saturday. It may start as snow then go to rain then back to snow at the end, with a total near 1"-2". But if we have a slightly colder storm then totals could quickly approach 4" and opposite for a warmer event. Just a few hours out the models are still all over the place with the system, so I may need to do an update tonight at 11:00 pm (with snow map).

Map for February 5th

Let's talk about next week now. First shot of snow is Tuesday when the arctic front moves through, that won't bring much but some areas that see snow squalls could pick up a quick 1"-2". Following the front is some of the coldest air this season and the risk of major northeast snowstorm by Thursday.

Right now this storm is way to far out to even decide the track. It could cut through the mountains bringing us another mix or go way out to sea missing us completely. But there is a middle zone that could bring us a massive blizzard.

Tip of the day:

Here is a picture of the corner of my house:

I wanted to show this picture and remind everyone that this is a dangerous situation. Thousands of pounds of ice falling on a warmer day (tomorrow) can fatally injure someone. Be aware of your surroundings, during the next two days these massive structures will be giving way to gravity!

La Nina Shows It's Face

2011-02-01T18:17:00.004-05:00

This storm system could be a sign that our pattern is breaking and could be changing back to the normal La Nina ways. This storm system is a classic example of what La Nina seasons typically bring. The AO and NAO have gone positive now, PNA is heading negative, and no sign of any major stratospheric warming events is apparent. Nothing now is keeping storm systems from riding up through the lakes and allowing warmer weather to come with it across the east.

The models are now tracking the storm much further to the north than yesterday, meaning snow/sleet accumulations are going to be much less and now freezing rain is more of a threat. Most areas have already had about half of their accumulation for the total event so it's less than anticipated.

The map is the two day total of snow and sleet accumulation with the higher amounts the further north you go. Now, the worst part of tomorrow is the freezing rain. All places in the snow contours will see freezing rain with the worst of it across the northern counties from Sussex to Bergen. Some of those areas can see over a half inch of ice, an ice skating rink has three quarters of an inch of ice. So literally it will be a skating rink.

After this sloppy mess expect talk of another storm for Friday night into Saturday, but the precipitation type for that is still unknown. As of now it looks wintry for most areas.

Messy Week Ahead...

2011-01-31T17:08:00.008-05:00

I'm not home today so I won't be able to post a snow map but I can give you the national weather service forecast map which I agree with (for the most part).

Not a bad little chunk of snow. Looking at the soundings for areas of NW Jersey it looks like the precipitation will remain mostly snow for late tonight (after mid-night) into Tuesday. Wednesday is a tricky forecast because we could start off as snow, then sleet, then HEAVY snow, then back to mix, and then back to snow to end. The reason for the heavy snow is because the precipitation may come down so hard that brings down colder air from higher up to weaking the strong inversion of warm air aloft. The warm inversion higher up is why we will see the mixing going on even though the surface temperatures are well below freezing.

Tomorrow I will post another blog with a better idea behind Wednesday's situation and a snowmap for that event. Also I'll look at the possible coastal storm for Friday night into Saturday. Yeah, another one...

Ice Storm Of The Century?

2011-01-30T10:26:00.005-05:00

There are a lot of weather events that affect our country, but one is more dangerous then tornados and hurricanes combine and can cover a much larger area. No it's not a snowstorm, its a freezing rain event. Currently across NJ we are measuring snow depth in feet and Tuesday could bring us yet another 4"-8" on top. Bad news is trailing that storm a larger storm is tracking up the spine of the appalachians putting us on the warm side this time.

Looks like a rain event right? No. When you have a cold air mass in place across the east coast and a system like this rides up into it the cold air damns up against the eastern side of the mountains and can create havoc. This is called cold air damning.

In the above figure you can see the warm air riding over top the cold air, this is called an inversion. The cold air is trapped by the mountains because it is more dense and settles to the surface, this set up is typical of the La Nina pattern. This can be seen in the atmospheric soundings as well. The yellow line is freezing and the blue lines are temperature and dew point. The inversion here is clear at the point where the blue lines pass through the yellow line. This sounding supports freezing rain/sleet in Sussex County NJ.

Let's keep an eye on this one....

Next Week Is Going To Be Rough

2011-01-29T15:09:00.004-05:00

A major storm is coming in two parts for next week, and wintry precipitation will be falling Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday. This time the storm will be cutting west of the mountains putting us on the warm side of things, but a stubborn high pressure system to our north will not give up without a fight. Most models right now agree that the storm will drop snow (plenty of it), go over to sleet, and then freezing rain to end. Maybe even some snow on the back side. Either way, by the time the storm is over the snow cover in North Jersey could approach or exceed 30".

Most the models have been tracking the storms to far west lately, and that includes the GFS and EURO. Then just a few days from the event it tracks it back to the east. So let's count on that happening again since it's happened that way since the Christmas storm. One model has been very impressive lately though, and may be my new favorite. The Canadian has been consistent with the storms so far this season and may have surpassed the EURO as the Guru of the models. It shows North Jersey really getting slammed and staying as frozen precipitation all week long.

To check out the 12z run of the CMC go to this link:

http://hurri.kean.edu/%7Ekeancast/weathermodels/cmc/cmc12z.html

Re-Cap and Outlook

2011-01-27T17:59:00.007-05:00

Re-Cap

This winter has been absolutely insane. Newark is already at 62" for the season and will most likely beat the record set in the notorious 1995-1996 season. Snow records are being broken all over the state, and more will tumble with each snow event coming. The good (or bad) news is that there is no end in sight and snowpack will continue to build through February before it even starts to melt in March.

Snowpack is something that builds over the winter season, which we typically don't get a lot of. I call it "snow cover" if the snow on the ground is from one or two storms, but what we have now is snowpack. The snow depths are measured in feet across the region which is impressive, but more impressive is the liquid equivalent (Liquid equivalent - taking the outside snow and melting it down). Below is the snow depth image from today, and this consists of 3"-5" inches of liquid!

Usually this much snow would be 1"-2" inches of liquid, but our snow has compacted and built into a strong thaw resistant consistency. Meaning that this snow is going to last a lot longer than your average 1 to 2 feet. Now let's add more snow on top, sound okay?

Some snow totals:

Central Park- 19.0"

Frenchtown- 17.9"

Hopewell- 17.1"

Morristown- 14.0

Netcong- 10.5"

Sparta- 8.9"

Wantage- 4.0"

The cold:

One of the things I record when I keep track of winter is the number of days with below freezing high temperatures. I've been keeping track since 2000 and the record season was 08-09 with 48 days. This season so far is up to 40 days and it's only January 27th!

Outlook:

We have two quick shots of snow from a pair of clipper systems coming from the north and west. The snow totals won't be much of a big deal but 1"-3" out of both of them combine will be a common trend, but some areas could end up with 4". These clippers are extremely hard to forecast, sometimes they could through as flurries and other times they can look like a blizzard. I wouldn't get too excited for this weekend. Here is a map of total QPF between both systems:

Beyond this more arctic cold is on it's way and other storm is possible for the middle of the week. Right now we can only speculate where the storm will track and how much precipitation will fall, one thing is for sure.... it's coming.

Stay tuned, and keep doing those snow dances.

Bring it...

2011-01-26T18:57:00.002-05:00

For the storm I'm still staying with the map I posted last night. It may end up being an inch or two underdone. Even after this storm exits one for Friday threatens to bring us another 1"-2", and then another one on the weekend could bring 3"-5" more. On top of that another big mid-week storm is on the deck for next week.

It's going to be awesome. Enjoy the snow!

Snow Map January 27th Update

2011-01-25T18:37:00.003-05:00

Here is my final snow map, there was a westward shift in the models but it's look as the heaviest bands will go south of the area.

More updates tomorrow as to the specifics of the storm...

Snow Map January 27th

2011-01-25T14:06:00.002-05:00

Below is the preliminary snow fall map for the upcoming storm. Right now most models agree that the heaviest snow bands will slide south and east of Sussex County again. This isn't my official map just yet. Check back later tonight for my finalized map if the models start to show a westward shift.

The Storm Is Coming

2011-01-24T22:30:00.005-05:00

It's been a complete head ache, but I think I may finally have an answer to the big question. No, I don't know who REALLY killed Kennedy. I do know what the next storm has to offer...

First off the models are still all over the place, but they all keep northwest Jersey as all snow. Second the storm is no longer Tuesday-Wednesday, but Wednesday-Thursday. And third it's not clear where the heaviest "band" of snow will be.

Right now most models show a situation like this: (NAM)

A tongue of precipitation on the backside of the storm system produces heavy snow for several hours and totals accumulations could range 8"-12" and better. And the possibility exist for the storm to become a total monster.

The soundings support an all snow event for areas west of I-95 at least. Some forecast are saying sleet or freezing rain which isn't going to happen. The upper air pattern will not support such precipitation for extended period of time because it lacks warmer air aloft.

We are just going to add onto our snowpack that's been building this year. And most likely double it with a wet heavy snowfall. Tomorrow I'm going to post a snow map so check back then. I have a feeling we are in the strike zone this time in NW Jersey...

Arctic In Dirty Jersey...

2011-01-21T17:56:00.006-05:00

It's January and the next three days may end up being the coldest period of this winter season. Just take a look at my official forecast for a valley location and a mountain top location.

Sussex Airport:

Tonight (1.21) - Mostly Clear Skies

Low -1

Saturday (1.22) - Partly Cloudy

High 17 Low -4

Sunday (1.23) - Flurries

High 20 Low -9

Monday (1.24) - Mostly Sunny

High 15 Low 2

High Point (1,803 feet):

Tonight (1.21) - Mostly Clear Skies

Low 4

Saturday (1.22) - Partly Cloudy

High 10 Low -2

Sunday (1.23) - Flurries

High 14 Low -4

Monday (1.24) - Mostly Sunny

High 11 Low 3

My point is that the valley locations will get much colder over night into the early morning hours but warm up more during the day time hours. The higher elevations will not have as dramatic a change in daily temperature as lower non-urban areas. Some place in North West corner will approach -15 (probably Walpack Center), and some places won't break the single digits for highs (maybe High Point or Mount Olive).

Okay, that's some cold air but we all want more snow. So far the area is ranging from 25"-35" inches across western Jersey while areas east are 35"-45" as far a season-to-date snowfall is concerned. It's kind of an odd thing but I have strong confidence that the trend will switch a few weeks down the road. Let's talk snow?

To be completely honest, I nor any other meteorologist can tell you what's going to happen just yet for early next week. The models are all over the place but one thing is for sure, a storm is coming up the east coast into a negatively tilted trough. Someone could get a blizzard.

The European model is my favorite because it favors NW Jersey for the jackpot (blizzard with rain for the city):

The Canadian or CMC or "GEM", whatever it is shows a rain storm which would wipe out our snow cover (no me gusta):

The the good old GFS is right in between giving eastern areas the brunt of the storm, again.

Other models are showing even more different solutions. The NOGAPS sends it out to sea (OTS), which is notorious in always doing that in the long range. And the JMA has no clue the storm even exists...

Anyway keep checking back. As we get closer to the event things will start to become more obvious. Pray for a massive blizzard to the snow gods...

Snow Map January 21st

2011-01-20T17:06:00.004-05:00

This is going to be a quick blog today so I'll start you right off with the NMM QPF (total liquid precipitation).

The map has most of the area with less than 0.50" of liquid precipitation, although a few areas will get a little more toward the city and around high point ridge. After looking at the QPF and taking in account snow ratios here is the snow map:

After the snow comes in the coldest air of the season so far with temperatures falling below zero for one or two nights. Beyond that could be more snow potentials! Check back tomorrow for another blog that will look at the coming week.

Snow then more snow

2011-01-17T17:00:00.007-05:00

It hasn't really been a "snowy" season here in North West Jersey. It's actually just average as of right now. Another snow event is coming through tonight, but it will mix and eventually go over to just rain in some places. First off the system will come up from the south and precipitation will be heavy to start, accumulations will range from around 2" inches at lower elevations to as much a 6" inches above 1000 feet.

Here is the sounding a few hours into the storm for Andover airport:

The red line is the freezing line and long blue line are temperature and dew point. The two blue lines are close together meaning the atmosphere is moist, and the fact that it is primarily below freezing means this is a snow sounding. The only problem is a little layer of the atmosphere is above freezing (in the yellow circle), which would indication a few sleet pellets are mixing in.

The next sounding is a few hours out:

Now this time a large layer of the atmosphere is above freezing which indicates the melting of all the snow on it's way down. Now the surface has a thick layer of cold air, this would be mostly sleet with freezing rain mixing in as the liquid precipitation freezes in free fall.

Most sounding data supports the idea that the surface will remain below freezing all day long above 500 feet, which means most areas in North West Jersey with stay wintry. A solid 3"-5" inches of snow will fall before the change over to sleet. Once the sleet starts to fall the snow will get compacted down into a hard, durable, and thaw resistant surface. The freezing rain will follow and put down a good layer of ice on top of the snow cover.

I know it's not the best storm, but by tomorrows end we will have a few inches on the ground that we didn't have today. So it's a good thing.

The snow map:

After this mess is all over with another storm potential for Friday could bring another plowable snow event.

Update from Jay Peak

2011-01-10T17:02:00.005-05:00

Currently I am at Jay Peak in northern Vermont. It's been snowing since we got here yesterday but surrounding areas are just getting flurries. It's absolutely amazing. The extreme winds today forced the Tram to the summit to close down, so we decided to hike up. The trail on the way up had all it's snow blown right off, but on the way down we took another trail. For the first time in my life I was over my waist in the best snow I've ever seen. Went through it like butter. It gives me chills just thinking about it.

I know the rest of you are back in Jersey and I can't leave you all hanging. You want to know about tomorrow upcoming snowstorm. This one isn't a blizzard, as the winds will not be as strong as the last one. The current NAM is printing out between 0.50 to 0.75 inches of liquid over the area. Typically that means a 6" - 9" inch event. Amounts will be greatest further east, yet again.

Latest NAM QPF:

The snow map:

Unfortunately I don't have a copy of my snow map so I'm just going to post the NWS map. It's pretty close to what I am thinking anyway.

Bigger version: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Will school be closed?:

Schools will be closed in eastern areas on Wednesday where at least a solid 8" inches will fall. The timing of the system may allow roads conditions to improve in western areas by Wednesday morning. I would say most schools in the area will at minimum have a delay.

January 8th Snow Map

2011-01-07T17:11:00.003-05:00

It's going to be one snowy week. Tomorrow another round of snow could move through the area with higher accumulations to the south this time. This one is a tough call, but it looks like at least a coating for most areas.

After this storm we need to keep watch on a big potential Nor' Easter which could bring significant amounts of snow for the middle of the week. As of right now it looks like southern and eastern areas will get hit the hardest, but it's still several days out and a lot can change from now till then.

Snow Update

2011-01-07T08:37:00.003-05:00

The heavy band of snow is passing through the area. I know it's a little late to change my mind on snow totals but it looks like the forecasted totals on my snow map are a little to much in northern areas (around Sussex, West Milford, to NYC) as the pivot point is going to a little further to north. Some places in Connecticut will pick up around 8 inches.

Fridays Snowmap

2011-01-06T09:49:00.007-05:00

The 12z NAM QPF is shown below, and really doesn't show much liquid equivalent over the area. Just around 0.25" which equals about 3" inches of snow.

The NMM show a different picture with up to 0.75" QPF and the storm hasn't moved all the way through yet. This would be around 8" inches of snow.

Here is my snow map for now. I may adjust and edit sometime tonight if I have a change of heart.

Snowy Pattern Setting Up!

2011-01-05T16:35:00.005-05:00

Winter so far has been an interesting one. Mountain Creek currently has more open terrain than Stowe Vermont and in fact only three resorts in Vermont have more trails open than Creek. Some Mountains in Vermont were forced to temporarily close! Not typical of a La Nina season, which usually brings ample amounts to snow to northern tier and leaves us with ice and rain. Not the case this season.

It's easy to see what has been causing the brutal winter on the northeast coast and especially in Europe where this winter has been the worst in hundreds of years. Most of you may know that I am obsessed with blocking patterns in the atmosphere, I have no idea why, and sometimes it scares me. Anyway, last year the arctic oscillation reached a record minimum level and what resulted was the worst winter in the mid-Atlantic states history with blizzard after blizzard. Then this winter came around and the arctic oscillation (AO), tanked even lower! Just take a look.

The image below shows the blocking over the northern hemisphere. Just watch that persistent block over Greenland (shown as red) and how it traps the cold weather over the northeast and Europe. It's a classic negative NAO, but also the AO is causing the cold air to be displaced from the north. With this kind of setup the storm track is forced south and has to cover a larger area of the hemisphere which makes it more prone to negative tilts. A negative tilt in the jet stream typically produces massive blizzards, as we have seen.

The only problem is that we just don't know what is causing the extreme negative values in the arctic oscillation. Some speculate high latitude volcanoes, the current solar minimum, or global cooling may be the cause. Global warming is said to cool the stratosphere over the arctic, but this is the complete opposite in every way because a negative AO is caused by warming of the stratosphere over the arctic. The age of global warming could very well be a done deal.

Let's talk about our snow potentials. First one is for Thursday night into Friday, but it really doesn't look like a big deal. I was thinking 3-5 inches, but this system will come through and pivot. The pivot point on the models right now looks to be across southern upstate NY into Connecticut but that point can always change. I mention the pivot point because where it occurs is where snow totals could be up to a foot. We need to keep an eye on it, and expect a snowfall map tomorrow.

After the system rolls through cold arctic air will pour into the region, with the heart of it right over our region. As you go north, the air will actually be warmer. It's a negative tilted trough setting up and a storm could potentially get wrapped up into it.

Check back tomorrow night for details on the storm(s)

Things are going to be a little different....

2011-01-02T19:41:00.006-05:00

I want to start off by saying that the "warm up" is over, and now winter will be back in full force for at least the next two weeks. Right now northwest Jersey is right on track to get average snowfall, while northeast Jersey already is at or over their average seasonal snowfall. Yeah I know it's sad.

Let's take a look at the forecasted over the next 7 days:

The map above is typical of negative arctic oscillation, that is cold air displaced further to south. When the cold air is displaced further south a block sets up and storms will travel around the block and be sent back onto the continent instead of out to sea. This is how our region keeps getting all these blizzards! (Example below: Black line is jet stream or "storm track" and L represents a storm or low pressure system)

This January looks like it will get bitter cold at times, typical of a la nina season. In the last la nina season temperatures in Sussex NJ approaches -15 and Walpack recorded -20! A similar event this month seems likely. The good news is snow cover will return to the region!

Let's talk about our snow potential. Thursday into Friday is looking real good for accumulating and plowable snowfall. Right now it looks to be in the 3-5 inch range.

GFS:

Euro:

This storm is going to be blocked and end up back tracking from east to west, but in the polar jet stream. Which means bitter cold, high ratio snowfall, and very little liquid equivalent. As of right now it looks like the heart of the storm will occur over Maine to the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont where several feet of fluff will accumulate. (I'll be at Jay Peak so I'm excited)

After the quick moving and weak storm leaves the region the coldest air of the season will move in, and clipper systems will rule our weather pattern. That's it for now, and happy new year!

The Storm....

2010-12-30T20:14:00.004-05:00

The past storm really hit some places hard with over 30" inches of snow toward the city, but western areas likes Phillipsburg picked up just 3.5" inches. The snow map I issued was over done to the west and underdone to the east, typical of convective bands of snow. Morristown at one point was getting 4 inch and hour rates with thunder and lighting while I was getting light snow. To make it worse I only live 20 minutes from there and I watched the band of snow stall out just a few miles from my house!

Here are some totals:

...MORRIS COUNTY...

BOONTON TWP 18.5 900 AM 12/27 COCORAHS

JEFFERSON TWP 12.8 600 AM 12/27 COCORAHS

HARDING TWP 12.0 700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS

PARSIPPANY-TROY 12.0 800 AM 12/27 COCORAHS

ROCKAWAY TWP 11.0 800 AM 12/27 COCORAHS

DENVILLE TWP 10.3 700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS

ROCKAWAY 8.0 800 AM 12/27 COCORAHS

MINE HILL TWP 7.2 800 AM 12/27 COCORAHS

ROXBURY TWP 6.8 700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS

MOUNT OLIVE TW 6.2 700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS

RANDOLPH TWP 6.0 700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS

...PASSAICCOUNTY...

CLIFTON 25.5 215 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

HASKELL 24.5 200 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

WAYNE 22.0 915 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

RINGWOOD 22.0 810 AM 12/27 PUBLIC

WEST MILFORD 22.0 415 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

..SUSSEX COUNTY...

HOPATCONG 7.2 1206 AM 12/27

NEWTON 7.0 837 AM 12/27

SUSSEX 6.0 1036 AM 12/27 CO-OP

LAFAYETTE 5.0 936 AM 12/27

HAMPTON TWP 4.9 144 PM 12/27

WANTAGE 4.5 413 AM 12/27

...WARREN COUNTY...

HACKETTSTOWN 7.0 935 AM 12/27

PHILLIPSBURG 3.5 1057 AM 12/27

You may wonder why West Milford is in red. And thats because it's a false report and the "trained spotter" who reports from there always has higher snow totals then everyone around him. Consistently!

There really isn't much weather to talk about in upcoming days. So I'm going to take a little break from blogging for the next two days and get my new weather station set up that I got for Christmas! So excited....

Well, that was interesting

2010-12-27T07:35:00.002-05:00

The blizzard hit, but there was one sharp western cut off. At my house in Netcong only 8" of snow fell, while 10 miles east are topping 18" because of intense bands last nights. And just 20 miles east some areas are reporting 31.8". And central park is currently at 13".

Storm tally and update later

Update on blizzard

2010-12-26T10:48:00.003-05:00

Since yesterday I have no changes to my snow map. I want to stress how dangerous this storm is to everyone. Just because snow totals may not be as much as we got back in February, this system will be colder and produce a lot more wind! If you must leave your house make sure you have four wheel drive and do not go anywhere without making necessary preparations. Travel is discouraged!

In the event that you leave your home make sure to pack a safety kit. Water, flash light, shovel, kitty litter/or sand, blankets, food, and your cell phone are a must! If you get stranded in the storm don't not try to travel by foot! Stay in your car and notify locals officials of your location.

Map still looks good to me:

Drifts 3-5 feet could cause some roads to be impassable even by truck. Also colder temperatures will allow to the snow to stick much quicker to roadways and road salt will be less effective. Enjoy and be safe!

Merry Christmas

2010-12-25T18:25:00.005-05:00

As of yesterday morning all operational weather models were in agreement that the storm will go out to sea (OTS). Then the GFS at 12z showed a massive snowstorm along the eastern seaboard, and NCEP/HPC said the model wasn't initialized correctly. That basically meant to ignore the model completely. Then the 18z model came out and showed a similar scenario, and that began to raise some eyebrows. By Christmas morning all models (globally) went to the idea of a major east coast blizzard. Merry Christmas!

Take a look at the 18z NAM total liquid precipitation for the event:

Now I based my snow totals on this model only, and tomorrow I will make another snow map and adjust the forecast if needed. I mainly based it off the total precip (QPF) but also included the higher snow ratios in colder western areas. For every 1 inch of liquid 15 inches of snow will fall in western sections and 10:1 ratio toward the city. Here is my snow map, and no I'm not being conservative at all.

Any shift eastward or westward on the exact track can drastically change the total snow amounts. By tomorrow morning I should have a map that I'm finally happy with.

P.S. Just like last years blizzards, a major stratospheric warming event over the arctic caused the arctic oscillation to tank at record low levels. It just goes to show how weather somewhere else in the world affect us right here at home. It reminds me of the butterfly effect http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect

The Snow Drought

2010-12-23T16:25:00.005-05:00

First off I want to apologize for not posting in the last couple of days. I've been busy working trying to get everything done before the holiday. Personally, you didn't miss much.

My last blog brought up the possibility of a Christmas snow storm. There are two problems with that as of now. First off the current system out to sea along the northeast coast is acting as a block slowing the flow and thus delaying the storm system. Second the delay in the storm system will allow for more bitterly cold air to attack the region sending the storm out to sea entirely. December will end with 0.4" of snow at Sussex Airport, thanks to an extremely cold and dry weather pattern.

Even with this practically snowless month Mountain Creek is having it's best start to the season in, well, ever. Natural snowfall doesn't help out resorts in this region to much, they rely on the man made snow. Real snow sublimates (evaporates from a solid to gas), melts faster, and disappears quickly in a rain storm. But the man made snow is more thaw resistant, rain proof, and makes for a better base. Now obviously natural snow makes for better surface conditions but thats all it's really good for, except for the mountains out west of course.

Here is a look at the Euro for the storm this Sunday:

After the New Year a pattern change will be in the works. One that makes for more mild and stormy weather. The problem is the storms will like to track up through the Great Lakes putting us on the warm side of things, but January will be more likely to give us some snow. I just can't believe December didn't provide us with one decent snowfall given the negative NAO and record negative AO. It just goes to show how different a La Nina season is compared to El Nino like last year.

P.S. Don't get bummed out just yet. While the best part of this storm will hit coastal areas and some fish out sea we may still get some light snow out it all. The storm is still 72 hours away, and things can and will change between now and then.

First Christmas Snowstorm Since 2002?

2010-12-20T21:05:00.003-05:00

There is nothing like a perfect Christmas Eve by the fireplace, drinking a cup of hot coco, and watching the flakes fly. Will we all get that opportunity on Christmas? Well only if you have a fireplace, because the chance of at least some snowfall looks promising.

Currently the EURO, GFS, and DGEX are all suggesting a good dump of snow. They all predict around a foot for most of the state, but all we need is an inch for a white Christmas.

The GFS:

The DGEX:

The Euro:

Now some models like the JMA, GEM, and NOGAPS track the storm offshore. The event is still five days away and the models need a little time to get things right and come into agreement. It seems likely that places further east have a better shot at bigger snowstorm but if the track changes by just 50 to 100 miles then things could be very different. The difference between a major snowfall and partly cloudy skies relies on the exact track of this system.

I'll post tomorrow on the progress of the models and begin to make my forecast for the upcoming event. Make sure you all tell Santa what you want for Christmas, a SNOWSTORM!

The Void

2010-12-17T17:15:00.004-05:00

I want to point out that our region is the only one with below average snowfall for the season thus far. In fact, we are the only ones without a decent snow event. Washington D.C., Cape May, Long Island, Virginia, Raleigh NC, and north Georgia are all ahead of us snow wise. Take a look at this sad map of current snow cover:

Will this trend continue? I personally believe so. In fact, after this weekend a 360 degree circle around us will have snow cover. This weekends storm looked bad to me all week, and I refused to jump on it. And it looks like that was a good decision because the storm will go out sea, missing us entirely.

There are several chances of snow after this weekend for our area. The first would be mid week, but that looks as if it could go south and give Washington another dump of snow. The second would be Christmas Eve into Christmas day. We just need to be patient, even I am becoming some what frustrated.

The good news is that the cold air has allowed the resorts to really pump out the white stuff and Mountain Creek is having their best start to the season I have ever seen. If we were in a snowy pattern we would probably be warmer which means the snowmaking could not be as extensive. In a way, things are working out well. Stay positive and stay tuned.

European model changes it's mind

2010-12-16T22:05:00.002-05:00

The Euro model is one the best weather models out there right now, and it shows a sizable snowstorm for most of the state come Sunday:

The only thing is, I don't buy it. Currently it's the only model showing this kind of solution and it could be just one bad run. I'm sticking with my little to no snow accumulation out of this weekends snowstorm. I could be eating these words by morning, but I just don't see it right now. I actually hope I'm wrong.

Check back tomorrow for final call and a snow map if needed.

Models in agreement now...

2010-12-15T08:31:00.003-05:00

Once again the GFS was over done on this storm. It finally caught on to the idea that every other model has been seeing for several days. The storm looks like it will go out to sea.

It just goes to show that the United States has the least advanced weather models. We need to play a serious game of catch up to reach the level of the European model, or even the Canadian. Another one bites the dust.

After this storm I don't see any other major snow threats all the way up to January. This could very well be a near snowless December, and personally I give us less than 10% chance of a white Christmas.

I know we are all down in the dumps right now, but it's the weather! Things can change on a dime and we will get ours. The snow haters in the region can't be lucky all season...

Winter Storm Outlook

2010-12-14T21:22:00.006-05:00

There are a lot of different weather models out there. Some are known to be notoriously bad, and others almost spot on. Let's take a look at a few of these and see which is the winning the model for our big snowstorm potential come Sunday.

1st up: GFS (Currently shows a 10"-15" snowstorm across most of Jersey)

2nd up: DGEX or extended NAM/ETA, same difference... (Similar to GFS)

3rd up: ECMWF or European model (Shows a storm going way out to sea, no snow)

I can go on for hours with different types of models. As of right now the only models showing a snowstorm on Sunday are the GFS and DGEX. They both run off of the same basics physics and computer program so I would expect them to be very similar. The odd thing is that the Euro, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET, and CMC all have the precipitation just offshore from the Jersey coastline. Let's give the models another day or so. Will the GFS come out on top? Or will it bust like it did on the last event.

The plunge

2010-12-12T22:14:00.007-05:00

Our future for natural snowfall looks lame to say the least. We do have some possible chances in the coming week but as of right now it's way to early to get a grasp on it. After this nasty little rain storm expect sharply colder conditions for the rest of the week, with snowmaking temperatures 24/7. Mountain Creek and other local resorts may end up having more than half of their terrain open by Christmas. Impressive, but why?

We have had plenty of cold air lately, but almost no natural snowfall. This may end up being a cold winter which is not alway a good thing. Last winter was warmer than normal with copious amounts of the white stuff while previous years were much colder with half the snowfall. Why you ask? This is where I get a little advanced, so try to follow along.

There is short range forecasting and then long range forecasting. Long range forecasting requires a strong knowledge in atmospheric dynamics, oscillation patterns, and teleconnections. There are several patterns which directly impact the weather here in North Jersey:

NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)

AO (Arctic Oscillation)

AMO (Atlantic multi decadal oscillation)

ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation)

PDO (Pacific decadal oscillation)

PNA (Pacific North American)

QBO (Quasi biennial oscillation)

All of these have a negative phase and positive phase, as well as "neutral" in between. Some switch phase weekly, biannual, yearly, and even every 30 years. Our negative NAO supplies us with stormy weather and cooler temperatures, and we have been negative! The problem is the La Nina which likes to track storms up the Appalachians and also the extremely negative arctic oscillation which is providing us with too much cold air dry air.

Current ENSO phase (La Nina)

Last year the AO went record negative. In fact the graph only went to -4 and the climate prediction center had to fix the graph to go to -6. Well, the AO may reach another record minimum in coming days.

The cause? Strong stratospheric warming over the high latitudes. The most impressive I've ever seen. Take a look at the animation, you can see the sudden warm up over Siberia.

You think it's cold here? For December it's very impressive. In fact parts of Europe are seeing the worst winter in several hundred years. I wish I knew why, but it could very well be the fact that our current solar cycle is the weakest since the Dalton Minimum in the early 1800's.

People are alway talking about how the winters here haven't been so good in the past 20 years. You here from your parents how bad the winters were "back in the day", and most people think of global warming. Wrong. For one the intense solar cycles of the 90's and 00's lead to warm decades. Also the AMO shifted into it's 30 year warm phase, and when it goes back to negative within the next 5 years expect winters similar to the 1970's.

We also have an unfavorable Quasi biennial oscillation phase. Every 28 months the winds in the stratosphere above the tropics shift direction from easterly (negative) to westerly (positive). Current we are positive which means storm track further inland and more intense hurricane season. The QBO was positive in 2005 as well when we had our record hurricane season. The La Nina, westerly QBO, and positive AMO means increase in hurricane activity. Not caused from global warming.

We still have a lot of winter to go. In fact, it hasn't started yet. Every winter brings something new and interesting. I'm sure this one will do the same.

It's not our storm

2010-12-09T14:54:00.003-05:00

Well, this blog is in response to yesterdays post. The GFS played it's usual games for day 4 out, and North Jersey will see primarily a rain event. The precipitation may start off as a wintry mix then go to a heavy rain for Sunday to end as snow on Sunday night. As of right now it does not look as if we will see much in the way of accumulation. It's just not our storm.

The good news is Mountain Creek is opening Saturday with 10 trails. At the rate they are going I wouldn't be surprised if they are 100% open by Christmas. That hasn't happened in the past 11 years I've been going there. After the rain Sunday snowmaking will resume around the clock for another week straight at least.

Creek's Forecast:

Monday: Snow Showers

High: 28

Low: 10

Tuesday: Partly Cloudy & windy

High: 15

Low: 4

Wednesday: Clear

High: 20

Low: 9

You wonder why my forecast is so much colder than any other site? That's because they adjust their forecast to climatology. So naturally it will be much warmer. For example NOAA forecasted 29 for a high today and the actual was 23, but five days ago they said 34 for today. That method of forecasting doesn't work to well in north Jersey, but it seems to work better in the city.

Not only that, but I live here in southern Sussex county. I know the weather here much better than some guy in Atlanta working for The Weather Channel or an employee at Mount Holly NWS who lives in south Jersey. In the end, my forecast it verify much better. And I think we should do a little experiment. Below I will post The Weather Channel and National Weather Service forecast for Mon-Wed of next week. Let's see who does better?

TWC:

Monday- 34/11 Rain/Snow showers

Tuesday- 22/12 Partly Cloudy

Wednesday- 24/19 Scattered Flurry

NWS:

Monday- 31/12 Snow showers

Tuesday- 23/11 Flurries

Wednesday- 26/14 Partly Sunny

Let the game begin...

18z GFS goes to all snow

2010-12-08T17:42:00.003-05:00

The 18z GFS just came out and shifted the storm out to sea. Now this is just one model and only run certain run of it. The question is will it verify? The answer is I won't be sure until about 11:30 tonight when the 00z model comes out.

Tomorrow we could look at this blog entry and say one of two things:

1. Wow the GFS really caught on this storm well! All snow! Yay!

2. Global Forecasting System? More like Good For Shi..p if you ask me :(

We will find out the answer next time on North Jersey Weather Outlook! Thanks for watching.

P.S. I'm in the "joking" mood. Hence lots of sarcasm...

December let's go...

2010-12-07T17:40:00.004-05:00

Today marks the 5th day in a row with snow flakes in the air. But up to this point accumulation has been minimal. Snowmaking at the local resorts is really going strong and it looks as if they should have no problem opening on time. I told you they would :)

Let's talk about the storm for Sunday to Monday. Most operational models have gone to the idea that it's wintry mix to start then turning to all rain and possible light snow to end it. Trust me, it's not what I want to hear either. We still have several days for things to shape up but it's not looking so good. The latest run of the GFS gives at least some hope for minor accumulations.

After our rain has turned the slopes into slush we have a big problem. The coldest air mass of the season will bring in temperatures that will not break out of the teens for highs. That means the slushy slopes will turn into an ice skating rink, but the guns will be able to go non-stop with high efficiency turning that surface into the frozen granular type.

There is still some uncertainty in this forecast. Check back daily to look for any updates. As soon as I get a better grasp on things you'll be the first to know.

Snow Outlook

2010-12-02T20:38:00.003-05:00

Well, it's December and I'm finally done with my "snowmaking" outlooks. The season for that has already started and temperatures that allow for the guns to be on will occur nightly and after this weekend will be 24/7. Now it's time to officially start snow outlooks!

Case #1: A clipper system will pull out the mid-west and bring snow all the way to Virginia and North Carolina and even some wet snow will mix in on the Outer Banks on Sunday. This one will not produce any snowfall for our area. And at the same this is occurring expect a snowstorm raging up in New England. Basically it will snow everywhere except Jersey...

Case #2: On the 12th-13th of this month a monster will ride up the eastern seaboard. This is the storm that holds the most potential for impressive snow amounts. It's still really far out so we have to keep a close tab on it.

The Science of Snowmaking!

2010-11-29T16:21:00.011-05:00

Way back in the old days (1970's and before), ski resorts world wide depended on natural seasonal snowfall to get the lifts turning. Needless to say the ski seasons were not that good, unless you enjoy hitting rocks and skimming over mud flows. In this new modern age we don't have to wait for the snow gods to provide. All we need is some water and good old compressed air.

#1. Internal Mixers (Snow Guns)

The science of snowmaking is actually pretty simple. So simple in fact that I made my own snow gun using some plumbing supplies from my basement. Here is what it looks like:

Anyone can make a snow gun from simple plumbing parts around the house, from a home improvement store, or local hardware story. But you do need two more things to make the snow fly. An average garden hose (or pressure washer) hooks up to the very bottom by the valve handle which adjusts water flow and the silver hook up on the middle left is a quick clip for a basic air compressor. When the air and water mix internally inside the long brass tube on the upper left it's forced out of a small hole at the end cap. When it comes out it looks like a white mist but it's actually in liquid form still. Assuming it's cold enough and humidity values are low enough the "white mist" will slowly float down to the ground and freeze in mid air. This is just a smaller model of what the resorts have but they run by the same principles.

You can use your snowmaker all you want, but if the "wet bulb" temperature is above 27 degrees F then you'll only be making rain. The wet bulb depends on the current air temperature and humidity. The current wet bulb can be found easily by using the chart from Snow At Home. (Humidity % across the top, and temperature down the side)

The maximum temperature you can have to still make snow is 39 degrees at 0% humidity, but we live on the east coast and the humidity is always high. Basically local resorts like Mountain Creek wait till the air temperature is at or below 27 degrees F before they turn on the guns and pump out the white gold.

#2. External Mixers (Fan Guns)

The snow guns are very cheap to buy and easy to use but require an air supply. The fan gun is good way to for resorts to avoid building huge compressors and they even produce greater quantities of snow. We've all seen these machines on the mountain side but just incase you haven't been paying attention this is what they look like:

The fan gun can be on wheels for towing, mounted to a pole, or mounted on a swivel so they can spread the snow over a larger area to reduce grooming. Instead of the compressed air mixing with the water in the snow gun, these guys have a fan built inside the drum and jets of water are injected into the spinning blades. Basically this produces the same "white mist" and runs off the same principle with the wet bulb temperature.

#3. When can we expect weather conditions that allow for snowmaking?

As we now know, resorts need not only low temperatures to make snow but low humidity as well. It could be snowing outside at 30 degrees but unfortunately snowmaking won't be possible because of high humidity. We need a dry cold air mass and that looks to be in the cards by the beginning of next week.

After a soaking rain storms this week expect cooler conditions for the weekend with marginally cold air (not cold enough for massive snowmaking). By Monday the 6th of next week a system will pass over the area bringing some natural snow, it's hard to tell right now but it looks like the Mid-Atlantic will get the bulk of snow with us on the northern fringe. That could always change so we need to keep a close eye on this one. Either way, the back side of this system will draw colder air down from the north with it's counter clockwise flow and the guns will start blasting. It looks like the snowmaking window could last through most of the work/school week. Hopefully Mountain Creek will be able to pump out enough snow and get it groomed up by Saturday the 11th. Their projected opening day.

Below is a map from the European weather model of Dec 6th:

Stayed Updated! Check back daily for weather outlooks in Morris, Sussex, and Warren counties. Questions? Comments? Email me or comment below.

I'm Officially On Storm Watch

2010-11-27T22:08:00.012-05:00

There are a lot of computer simulation models out there, but the best #1 (no debate) is the European model. Why? Well they charge a lot of money for their product which they invest in the model itself, they only run the model twice daily to better improve the initialization of the run, and it's has overall better physics incorporated within.

I've noticed a trend with this model, and I'm truly impressed. It was said that one day in the future a computer model will be so accurate that there will be no need for weather personal. Well, I hope that's not completely true but with the accuracy I've seen within this model, it's close. Sorry to NCEP but the "American" models don't even come close. And the GFS, Good For S...tuff if you ask me.

With the most recent stratospheric warming event which is basically done and over with, we can now expect some feedback resulting from that. December is going to our best month this winter hands down, and it's all because of this.

Take a good look at it. It's a stratospheric warming event over the pole. Perhaps the best one we will see this winter? This leads me into an in depth meteorological discussion, if I go overboard just comment below and I'll be happy to answer any questions you have. Have you ever heard of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)?

The quasi-biennial oscillation is something I rarely ever talk about on this blog, and that's not for the best. It's a very important part of the weather here, and crucial in long range forecasting. Back in 1883 a volcano by the name of Krakatau went off it sending ash into the stratosphere. As the ash traveled west because of the "easterly" winds the scientific community thought the winds of the stratosphere were "easterlies". Then in 1908 Berson sent balloons into the stratosphere and discovered the "westerly" winds in the stratosphere. This could only mean one thing, the winds of the stratosphere shifted direction about every 28 months. It was an atmospheric oscillation.

The resulting oscillation looks like this:

Basically remember this:

1. The "westerlies" or positive phase of the QBO means more hurricanes in the Atlantic like this year and in 2005. And fewer stratospheric warming events.

2. The "easterlies" or negative phase means weak hurricane season (last year), and more in the stratospheric warming events (like last year).

Basically what I'm telling you is that you can tell how cold and snowy and winter will be just by how bad the hurricane season is in a given year. When we have a negative QBO stratospheric warming events are much more frequent which in turn creates huge blocking patterns. The two mean cold and snowy conditions. This year it is positive which means less warming events and therefore the blocking pattern will be unfavorable for any major events.

Now, as some of you know I forecasted the February 26th blizzard two years in advance by using methods of cycles and oscillation patterns (Click here to see that blog). This year seems unlikely to have any major snow events which measure snow in feet not inches. After careful analysis, I forecast our next major blizzard next winter season in early March of 2012. I'm very confident in this forecast, and next winter will be the start of nearly a decade of brutal winters ahead similar to what happened during the 60's and 70's.

What's going to happen this winter? Check out my winter forecast for the winter of 2010-2011 http://meteomaddness.blogspot.com/2010/10/winter-outlook-2010-2011.html .

Questions? Comments? Suggestions? Want me to post a blog on a certain

topic?

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I love to answer questions, hear your feedback (good or bad), and try to

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It's one of those winter again...

2010-11-26T08:30:00.005-05:00

Well yesterday went off almost exactly as I thought it would. Except the fact that parts of central PA and NJ picked up 1-2 inches of snow. The reason? A lot of upward motion in those areas produce heavy burst of snow with white out conditions. As the precipitation moved northward there was more in the way of downward vertical motion which basically killed the precipitation, allowing for only light to moderate snowfall with no accumulation. Lesson learned there on my part, and I hope NOAA, TWC, and basically everyone else learned their lesson on the power of evaporational cooling!

That's all in the past now. Let's look forward. Mountain Creek will most likely turn their system on tonight as temperature will bottom out around 20 degrees. High temperature on Saturday of around 35 will most likely force them to turn the guns off for a time until the wet bulb

temperature reaches 27 degrees. (Don't know what I'm talking about? Click here) When the humidity and temperature reach a combined "wet bulb" of 27 snowmaking is then possible. And snowmaking can go on for a couple nights in a row. But, there is a problem.

During the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame there will be a storm. And as of right now all operational models show a storm much stronger than our previous one with combined QPF(total precip amounts in liquid form) measured in inches. The issue is that the track is not a favorable one for the northeast. All the heavy precipitation that will fall will mostly likely in the form of just plain rain. All that freshly blow snow will be washed away into Vernon Valley. Now there is a slight chance of a snow burst on the backside of the system, but even that looks unlikely.

Ok, let's get that garbage out of our eyesight. The next system looks to be one in which the interior northeast gets pounded. And I consider Northwest Jersey the boarder of the interior northeast. With all the blocking patterns in place it looks to be a good set up around the 7th of December. Right now it's too far out for me to give much detail, but a nice snowstorm has to come out of the current blocking pattern we are in.

Mountain Creek will turn their guns back on 24/7 during the storm and several days after. I just hope they can blow and groom Upper and Lower horizon in just 4 days time to open the Cabriolet on time for Saturday the 11th. Beyond this it looks like trail counts will skyrocket. I hope they stock pile snow because January does not look to good.

Remember if you ever have any question, comments, or suggestions you can email me, facebook me, or just plain comment on the blog below. Enjoy your weekend, try and pray daily to the snow god "Nor' Easter" he is a good man.

Wintry Weather Is Coming

2010-11-23T18:05:00.003-05:00

I want to welcome everyone to a La Nina winter, which means ice and lots of it. And as your going to find out that's exactly what we are going to get for the end of the week. First off take a look at the sounding from the 18z NAM.

The red line represents zero degrees Celsius, the blue line shows temperature, and the green shows your dew point. Since the dew point and temp are so close you can almost bet that precipitation is falling to the surface. Now the fact that it's completely below the zero line means this sounding shows snow falling at K12N (Andover Airport) just 57 hours from now. But as the day goes on the snow will quickly change to sleet, to freezing rain, and end as a little bit of light rain. I can't speak for the national weather service but I wouldn't be surprised if they issue a winter weather advisory for minor ice accretions.

If you live about 1,000 feet then I would really be concerned for ice lasting till the afternoon hours on your Thanksgiving Day. It's going to be a mess. Perhaps we can see a few snow showers on the back side of the system as well. Since the QPF (total precip) amounts are around 0.20 inches during the "wintry" portion of the storm don't expect much in the way of sleet or snow accumulations. Although I can see how an inch or less can fall before the change over.

Big snowstorm chance around the 1st of December, let's hope it won't be ice. Although I wouldn't be surprised...

P.S. The cold air behind this system looks rather weak from what the models were originally showing. Nonetheless I believe Mountain Creek will be able to open up on time this year on December 11th.

That's interesting

2010-11-20T22:06:00.007-05:00

Arctic oscillation picking up where it left off last winter? Literally? And the NAO is going strongly negative. Very impressive actually.

This is a short blog entry tonight. I need to stress that this current set up is strongly related to major northeast storms. Only difference this year is that we are in a La Nina pattern which typically provides much less moisture than El Nino's.

My point is that if a "surprise" snowstorm pops up on the models with only a two or three day warning don't let it catch you off guard. Nonetheless, it seems obvious the cold air is one it's way.

Tis' the season

2010-11-18T18:36:00.005-05:00

The leaves changing and dropping are a real sign of winter coming. But one certain invasive tree to our region really signals the change of seasons. The Norway maple is typically the last tree to change color and drop it's leaves (comes from Norway where the climate is more harsh and the days much shorter). My neighborhood is full of them! These trees don't peak in color until about 2 weeks after all others have completed their leaf drop, and the ones in my yard have passed peak and only have a few stragglers left.

Webcam shot of my yard today:

My webcam can be found on weather underground under the town of Netcong if you want to see the current weather in the area.

Now that the "fall" part of fall is over it's time to talk cold and snow. First off I want to point out that Killington Vermont (the snowmaking super power) is currently making snow on get this, 98 trails! That is insane. Mountain Creek and other local resorts could make snow Saturday night, and it could be a solid 15 hours of wet bulb

After this chilly weekend, a warm up with once again infiltrate the east. And a storm is on the horizon. A big one. As of right now models are suggesting several inches of rain followed by a few snow showers on the back side. Now it's still far out and things can and will change on the models, thats a guarantee. It could very well be our first significant snowfall, or it can be a bust. It all depends on the track and several other factors.

Rain, snow, sleet, hail, cats, or dogs the backside of the system will usher in the first major ARCTIC blast of the winter season. Temperatures will remain subfreezing for back to back days allowing a massive snow making effort at resorts everywhere in the east. Even the lower elevation foothills of the Appalachian chain. Snowfall to our west, north, the lakes, and the mountains will begin to build snowpack for the season and any cold air that keeps filtering down from Canada will have less of a chance to modify over the bare ground which heats up the air mass before it gets to us. Which means the weeks will get progressively colder, and trails counts at the mountains will rise very quickly. And natural snowfall seems to be very likely in this new pattern. We've been waiting so long, and to think it's just a week or two away. Gives me chills.

P.S. Check back in for updates on the Black Friday storm, and remember to do your snow dances. We must appease the snow gods!

Long Ranger (For Mountain Creek)

2010-11-14T09:14:00.007-05:00

Ok, the weather has been a little on the boring side lately. But not to worry! As I've been saying in here in the blog and via facebook (if your my friend), the cold is coming around the Thanksgiving Holiday. I'm not just talking a polar air mass, but an all out arctic punch. Here is the run down up till that point:

First off we need to get through this mid-week storm. It's a Great Lakes cutter which means the track is not going to be favorable for snow anywhere in the northeast. Even the highest resorts in northern New England will really get a wet down. The upper mid-west will get their first significant snowfall of the season from this one.

Now that we get through that little mess, and polar front will move from behind the storm bringing marginally cold air. Perhaps some small snowmaking windows during the late night time hours? More of a system "test" than anything large scale.

After that, a brief warm up will occur has the trough pulls east off the north american continent. It may get real warm for a few days. But I have a saying, "one extreme leads to another". And that is so true. There may be a point next week where we are in the 60's and temperatures could drop some 45 degrees in the matter of a day or two. This maps is for Thanksgiving Day, just take a look at the impressive frontal boundary. Possibly a rain to snow event.

This next map is my absolute favorite. The first arctic onslaught of the season blasts the country, and snowmaking is being done on a large scale (Everywhere in the east). Mountain Creek should have no problem opening on their scheduled date. Map is for 11-28

IT'S A SIGN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2010-11-06T17:23:00.004-04:00

Take a look at the most recent NAM run:

That's a storm backing in off the coast. Exactly what I was thinking would happen nearly a week ago. This will end up bringing snow to the highest elevations in New England. Killington Vermont has already had 24" this season and will surely get even more early in the week. If the cold air mass was a little more potent and the storm track was further south then I would put us in that snow regime, unfortunately it didn't work out that way.

Although it already snowed 4 days by this time last year (about 1" in most places, 5" at high point) we are still only and inch behind last years snow totals for this date. So don't feel like we are getting shafted, cause the season hasn't even really started!

Next week it's going to get warm, and in my mind "one extreme leads to another". And I keep proving that theory of mine right. I have some EXCITING NEWS! A major stratospheric warming event is occurring over the polar region, this will send the arctic oscillation deeply negative and signals to me that an arctic outbreak is not more than 2 week away. It look like the snow makers at Mountain Creek will be turning on around Thanksgiving, with the aid of natural snowfall. The mountain will most definitely open on time and trail counts could rise quickly through the month of December.

Check out this warming event. The warning siren is going off in my head.

Snow?

2010-11-03T21:05:00.002-04:00

As much as I like, excuse me, love snow. I think the NWS is jumping the gun by forecasting Rain/Snow mix for Friday night into Saturday. Personally, I don't see what they are seeing. I said it will be a rain storm in my last blog and that's all it will be. Now, some lake effect snow flurries could randomly work their way into the northwest corner of the state this weekend but it seems even that will be at low odds.

November will provide an early snow making window for the lower elevation resorts like Mountain Creek to open right on time this year in early December. And a November snow event seems likely, it's just around the corner...

P.S. Several northeast resorts are already open like Killington Vermont!

Now that's just what I was thinking...

2010-11-01T16:26:00.005-04:00

If you read my previous blog from yesterday first then you'll be able to understand this one a little better. But that idea I had about a storm backing into somewhere in the northeast looks likely for the weekend. The only question is where? The northern side of the storm will bring warmer temperatures and rain, while the southern side could bring a major snowstorm. Yes that's right, rain north and snow south. We just have to figure out where the low tracks...

(P.S. what if this storm hooks up with the energy from Tomas?)

This is more my style....

2010-10-31T09:25:00.006-04:00

Today is Halloween. And I can tell that from all the toilet paper that has taken the place of the leaves that are all but gone now. Leaf drop was before Halloween for the second year in a row, and those were the only two times since the turn of the century in 2000. With the exception of the 1998 winter leaves typically fell off before Halloween regularly during the 90's, and it looks as if we have entered that cycle again.

For those of you who like snow, and like to ski and snowboard, I have some good news. In the coming week places like Snowshoe, Killington, Mount Snow, Stowe, Jay, and the other snow making super powers will open for the season. The lower elevation resorts of the Appalachian foot hills like Mountain Creek, Camelback, West Mountain, and Jack Frost will be able to make snow in the coming nights. But at a foolish cost. Either way the moderately cold temperatures will allow for these places to at least test their system. It's going to be several more weeks before these places can really start pumping out meaningful snow.

Now we have a very interesting event in our future. First off is the classic nor'easter set up that will unfold over the mid part of the week. The primary coming up the spine of the Appalachians and then a secondary forming right off the coast. Unfortunately this will not provide snow, unless you live on the west slopes of the mountains from the Smokey's to the Allegheny and north toward the east shores of the Great Lakes as the first major lake effect event of the season sets up.

Okay, so obviously that's not the storm I'm getting excited for. After the rains have ended a sharp, narrow, deep trough will set up shop. With it, comes cold weather and if any precipitation falls it will in the form of snow. Note the trough in the model image below, when this happens typically the mass air cuts of from the main source and that's when it get's interesting. It's a similar situation that we had with this past winter season in the Mid Atlantic.

There is only one thing a pattern like this to do. And that is cut off and send a storm back tracking into the northeast. But where, and when is the question? A set up like this one can have rain on the northern end, and snow in the southern side. An odd idea, but it happened several times last year when the Mid-Atlantic was getting a blizzard and it was raining in Vermont and Maine.

The image above has a black arrow representing the possible path of a storm. One that could get interesting somewhere in the northeast...

I'm ready for winter...

2010-10-24T20:54:00.003-04:00

These past few days I've taken a big break from blogging. And that was the long process of winterizing my fish pond, camper, boat, and waverunner. On top of that I have sreen houses on my patio that needed to be taken down, umbrellas, chairs, tables, torches, law statues, and etc which needed to be cleaned down and put in the basement. I'm finally done. And now it's going to get warm again. Can you see any irony?

First off most places in the Northwest corner have had their first frost. And those of you at lower elevations already had your first freeze. For example High Point hasn't had it's first freeze, but Hope Township has already had 3 and Pequest has had 7!

Most shocking of all was that there were some isolated snow showers on Radar in the early evening of Friday last week. I personally can't confirm that the pecipitation was hitting the ground but I have a strong feeling that it did.

The pattern for this week won't supply much in the way of cold weather, and it looks like October this year is going to end up snowless for most of us. A good indication that a good sized November snow event seems to be in the cards later in the month. Good news for ski areas that want to open a little earlier than planned...

Don't worry we still have another chance

2010-10-18T15:16:00.003-04:00

The precipitation that could have brought North Jersey areas above 1,000 feet some snow and mix precipitation seems like it will be passing mostly to the south. But as lows tonight get into the mid and upper 30's any reflectivity over the area on the radar could indicate wintry precip. It doesn't seem to likely tonight, but late week could get interesting as we have colder air to deal with along with a bit more moisture.

I have to go and do some thermodynamic's problems now :(

First snowfall of the 10'-11' season

2010-10-16T15:53:00.003-04:00

Yesterday brought 1-2 feet of snow over the higher elevations in the Green Mountains of Vermont, White Mountains of New Hampshire, and the Adirondack plateau. Even snowshoe West Virginia just had their second snowfall of the season already. They were the first in the eastern U.S. to get snow two weeks ago when we had our tropical rain storm. That's right a tropical system produced snow in West Virginia, and it's actually very common for that region.

The fall color is not very good this year in terms of those vibrant hues, but it's pretty much on time now as recent rains delayed the change. I mention the leafs for a very important reason, because they can cause a problem. In this case the problem is a potential "elevation" snowfall early this week for areas above 1,000 feet. Towns like Hopactong, Mount Olive, Jefferson, West Milford, Wantage, Vernon, Highland Lakes, Randolph, Roxbury, as well as High Point ridge are the most vulnerable because of being at higher elevations. Even if these places get 2-4 inches of snow it will be a huge mess with downed trees, wires, and a traffic mess.

Wait Darren, are you telling me it's going to snow in 3-4 days from now?

It's a maybe right now. Never less, I believe there is a strong possibility flakes will be flying in air for most locations in northwest Jersey. And here is why:

Atmospheric sounding shows a possibility of snowfall across higher terrain. It's not a perfect set up by any means, and the atmosphere will struggle in the fight to let the snow hit the surface.

The latest GFS does support the idea for a snow event, but right now most operational models have the precipitation going just south of the area. If that happens, then it will not snow simple because the storm slide 50 miles south.

We need to watch the computer models very closely for the next few days. This can go either way here, but let's give it a little more time before the call is offical. Check back tomorrow for more.

Fall Color Update

2010-10-05T10:22:00.002-04:00

While some areas have reached "peak" at higher elevations the change is only up to 70%. The true peak of 100% color should be arriving in the next two weeks. It neeeds to start snowing...

Winter Outlook 2010-2011

2010-10-01T15:30:00.032-04:00

The first thing you want to look at when determining what an up coming winter will bring is always the winters of the past. Let's look at the past two winters.

Winter 09-10:

Snow days: 37

Days of snow cover: 85

Amount of snow: 81.5"

Winter 08-09:

Snow days: 46

Days of snow cover: 72

Amount of snow: 49.5"

I find it interesting that it snowed more days in 08-09 than it did last year, yet last year brought nearly double the season total snowfall than the previous year. Also most people would assume that last winter(09-10) was colder than (08-09) and that is wrong. In fact negatives numbers weren't even seen this past winter anywhere in the state of New Jersey, but more than half the state the previous winter saw near record cold temperatures. Including Walpack Center in Sussex which approached -20 degrees F.

February this year was just 1 degree below average but brought 48.9" inches of snow to a month in which we average just 8" inches (+40.9"). Mean while January 2009 was 6 degrees below average and brought just 12.7" inches in a month which we average 14" inches (-1.3"). This helps me make my point that the amount of snow you get doesn't always go hand in hand with the temperature. Meaning a month near average could bring TONS of snow or none, or a month with extreme cold could bring TONS of snow or none. Why you ask? Cause there are many other forces at work, and that's what we are going to take a look at.

Agenda:

1. Oscillation patterns "a look at the past to predict the future"

2. The temperatures

3. The precipitation

4. Let's make a season snow map?

5. How accurate have I been?

6. What's it all mean?

The oscillation patterns whether they be atmospheric or oceanic are a predictable because they are just cycles. These cycles aren't alway equal in length. Some cycles last upward of 30 years or more while others could last just a couple months. For example the NAO is one type oscillation which could be primarily positive for 20 years then negative for anther twenty. Now while in the same time period you will have a winter where it's mostly negative while the 20 year cycle is in it's positive cycle. Then you can have monthly changes and even weekly changes. So basically the oscillations have oscillations that oscillate. If that makes any sense to you? Here is a basic example:

Alright now let's talk about these oscillations. Here are some of the ones that we will be talking about:

A. North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO):

-Forecast: Primarily negative

B. Arctic Oscillation(AO):

-Forecast: Slightly negative

C. El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO):

-Forecast: Strongly negative

D. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO):

-Forecast: Positive

E. Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO):

-Forecast: Negative

A. (NAO) First up is the NAO. One of the most important for our region of the country. In the images below you can see the history of the NAO from 1950-present, where for year on end could be primarily positive while other periods are mostly negative. If you take a closer look some of the negative winters are 1977-1978 / 1995-1996 / 2002-2003 / 2009-2010 which are all big snow seasons. There are some odd balls in there like 1997-1998, a year which practically no snow fell. But that's why the NAO is only part of the big picture.

We currently are in the middle of a NAO which is primarily negative and will remain there for most of the winter only coming positive for brief intervals at a time like last year. For a better understanding of the NAO check out the following site: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/

B. (AO) Next on the list is the arctic oscillation. Last year this went off the charts in the negative direction which typically signals strong blocking over the pole displacing colder air and the jet stream to lower latitudes. Remember what happened last winter?

If you look at the above chart you can see the negative phases line up with the two snowiest and coldest months. December with 22.25" inches of snow and -2.1 degrees below average. And also February which we all can't forget. But January was 0.6 below average and just 6" inches of snow fell, and mostly in the beginning of the month.

Obviously understanding how the AO affects our weather is critical, but once again we need to look at the entire picture to understand the meaning. Stratospheric temperatures do matter in forecasting, although most only really care about the tropospheric temperature at the surface. But right now we have a battle taking place.

The AO is said to be negative when the stratosphere above the arctic is warmer than normal which displaces cold air south and creates blocking in correlation with the NAO. So the warmer it is the greater the impact, and the same for negative phase just with colder than normal temps. Think of the following image as a vertical profile of the atmosphere, I made some changes to help you understand better:

Pretend your at the building in the image. The time line says its about mid August, and since the air above you is warmer than normal in the stratosphere this would mean a negative phase in the AO. Assuming you took the empire state building and brought it to the arctic. Should I have used a big igloo for this example? Anyhow this is what creates blocking patterns. This AO is going to try it's hardest to stay in the negative phase through the winter, but at the same time a strengthening La Nina will be pumping warmer than normal air aloft in the stratosphere at middle latitudes, keeping the stratosphere at the pole colder than normal. This is our battle, and one which could make or break this winter season.

C. (ENSO) The El Nino Southern Oscillation will be brawling it out with the AO, which one will win it? Remember those years where it seemed like all we ever got was freezing rain and sleet? Even if is was 20 degrees outside the prominent precipitation type would still be ice! This was caused by warmer air above the surface while cooler air was at the surface. Please excuse my third grade drawing, I'm only trying to help out with this one.

Unfortunately a strong La Nina indicates to me that warmer air aloft could and probably will help to cut down on season total snowfall by adding freezing rain and sleet to the mix. And perhaps a significant amount at that, especially over the higher terrain.

The current La Nina pattern we are in may actually last for the next several years, which will eventually lead to brutally cold winter coming up in the next 3-5 years, similar to what happened in the 1970's. But the past winter's El Nino, even though it's gone helped to give us that warm summer which will lead into our winter. Above average temperatures for most of the eastern two thirds of the country seem to be what's in store. But don't get upset! Remember what I said before? Average temperature over a winter doesn't necessarily mean everything, last winter was much warmer than the previous and we got double the snowfall!

Another bummer with La Nina seasons is they aren't really known for providing abundant moisture. So I'm looking for near average precipitation (liquid equivalent).

D. (AMO) The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation went into it's warm phase in the mid 1990's (positive), that warm cycle should last about 25 years. In fact it's last cold year was during the season of 1995-1996, which was not only snowy but very cold. We are well into that warm phase and we have the better part of a decade before it begins into it's cold cycles once more. This is not very helpful to us, if you want cold and snow anyhow. When this goes this cold once again we are going to have some amazing winters in store, something to look forward to I guess?

E. (PDO) The Pacific Decadal Oscillation went negative just a few years and that marked it's new 30 year cold phase which will remain that way for decades to come. This has to do with waters off the coast of Alaska and have an effect on the westerly flows that come from the west to the east which brings us most of our winter time weather. During the cold phase of the PDO increased precipitation coming in from the northern Pacific brings extreme snowfalls to Rockies and Alaskan glaciers typically begin to reclaim the land they previously occupied. During some winters depending on some other factors this could really help us out, or hurt us. This year I can see how it helps us.

That's all for the oscillations. I probably have you bored already! Let's move onto the good stuff now.

2. Below is the map for the projected temperatures for this upcoming winter season, sorry? I want to stress that while it seems extremely warm its the anomaly from the average. So there will be cold periods and there will be warm periods. By the time it's all said and done the winter could end up around 1.5 to 2.5 degrees warmer than normal.

3. The precipitation for the winter season is an important factor because it can give us an idea how much snow fall to forecast. Of course not all the precipitation during the winter will fall as snow, so we need to come up with some sort of system to figure out how much snow could fall with average precipitation while factoring everything into the equation that we talked about so far. The average winter time precipitation for north Jersey (Dec-Mar) is:

December- 3.63"

January- 3.83"

February- 2.96"

March- 3.79"

Total liquid equivalent: 14.21"

Now you have average liquid over the winter time period. After factoring in the whole picture, elevation, averages, and little bit of love you can make a good snow map. Ok, maybe love is a little much...

Below is the total snowfall per season since I started my measuring back in the day. The average snowfall for my town at 1,000 feet is 55" inches per season which means most of north Jersey averaged 50"-60" depending on elevation mostly. As you can see we have seemed to reach a "peak" season last winter, so I can only assume it's downhill from there. I would put this up coming winters snow totals at just average to slightly below.

4. The snow map!

5. Previous winter outlooks:

Winter 09-10: Prediction of blizzard (2 years in advance)

Winter Outlook (Nailed the north Jersey forecast!)

Winter 08-09: Winter Outlook (Over did the snow totals a bit)

Winter 07-08: Winter Outlook (My inexperience did me in on this one)

6. What's it all mean?

-Snowfall will be near normal to slightly below

-Temperature will be 1.5-2.5 degrees warmer than normal

-Ice and sleet may be a more common event than snowfall

-May be very dry for extended periods of time

Any questions? Comments? Suggestions? Comment below or email me at millirod@kean.edu

Fall is awesome!

2010-09-28T17:57:00.006-04:00

From the bright green of the white birch in early spring, to the greens of summer, to the brilliant colors of the sugar maple in fall we are moving quickly through this year. Next on the list is the blue spruce covered in a white dusting. (That would be winter if you haven't caught on)

Fall Foliage Update: As of today the leaves in the northwest corner of the state are around 25%-35% changed. With even more in some isolated areas that are nearing 75% change. All this rain will help to slow the quickly changing foliage with an estimated peak around Oct 10th-15th. Leaf drop will mostly likely be completed before Halloween just like it was last year.

(Yes, I took this while driving...)

As much as I am just waiting for snow, I see nothing in the near future or extended future that would signal an early season snowfall. It's going to be very difficult to beat last years early snow event on October 15, 16, and 17. I can assure you that as the weather get more interesting I will be posting more and more blogs, and sometimes even several times a day...

Till then Hasta Luego!

Fall colors extremely early this year

2010-09-17T22:49:00.002-04:00

Look what lack of rain does. Picture was taken in Byram NJ on September 16th 2010.

Fall is in the air. Finally...

2010-09-10T15:40:00.002-04:00

This summer was a hot one for sure. In my area where Warren, Sussex, and Morris counties come together we broke 90 on a grand total of 4 days. Those days being:

**Netcong-Hopatcong-Mount Olive**

July 4- 91.7

July 5- 92.7

July 6- 97.1 (All time record is 98)

July 7- 95.0

While my area may have only busted the 90 mark 4 times the entire year NYC did it 37 times! But those days have come to an end. In fact northwest Jersey will struggle to even see 80+ temperatures until next spring for places above 500 feet in elevation. It's all down hill from here folks, which is good if your a snow lover like me.

I also want to point out that the leaves are off to a very quick start this season, and without rain will mostly likely peak around the 15th-20th of October. But unfortunately dry summers lead to a dull fall, lacking in bright colors. That shouldn't matter anyway, because winter is still lurking around the corner.

Summer is slowly fading away...

2010-08-15T13:55:00.002-04:00

I was outside last night at 8:00 pm and it was completely dark, and chilly enough for me to want to put jeans and a hoody on! And more enough there is a noticeable and very early change in the leaves, almost completely do to the dry summer we've had. While only small amounts of color, it's about one month ahead of normal comparative to September 15th-25th.

I can't wait for the weather to start acting up. Cause then the blogs start up...

Let's clear up a few things?

2010-05-09T08:46:00.004-04:00

As of late, it seems like every time something nature or environmental acts up, or "extreme" events happen everyone likes to blame global warming. I will do one blog at time, tackling each issue individually. Here are a few things I have heard being the "result" of global warming:

Our state:

1. New Jersey trout population decline in almost every river

2. Increase in snow events (past winter)

3. Increase in flooding events

4. Decrease in ski resorts

5. Increase in annual temperature

World Wide:

1. Increase in volcanic activity

2. Increase in earthquakes

3. Katrina

4. Increase in flooding events

5. Increase in annual temperature

6. Increase in tropical activity

7. Decrease in arctic and antarctic sea ice

What is really happening with Jersey native brook trout?

1. First off I want to talk about the New Jersey native trout population which has seen a near extinction in the state except for a few small creeks in the mountains of the northwest corner. The belief is that since trout are a cold water species, global warming has warmed up their water ways depleting the amount oxygen they can breath and eventually die. And in fact this is almost exactly what happens, but sorry it's not the full truth.

The problem is man made, and it's called dams. Trout are a species that swim upstream in order to spawn, and dams prohibit them from getting there. Not only that, after years and years of sediment and deposit the area behind dams becomes more shallow and eventually seaweed begins to take over. The weeds slow the current allowing it to bask in the warm summer sun, and on top of that the weeds suck even more oxygen out of the water that the trout need to breath. Also these dams create more turbidity in the water, giving it a muddy and grimy look which is also a negative for native trout.

The only way to bring back the native trout is to remove dams. And in places where dams are needed those areas need to be dredged of sediment as it builds up and those old step dams need to be replaced by step dams. The step dams allow the trout to jump up a few feet at a time to make it back to their native spawning grounds. Currently the state is working on removing dams, reconstructing the old ones, and removing seaweed. One day, in our life times the native brook trout will return to the future clear water streams and rivers of New Jersey. It just takes one step at a time.

There is still another issue that will limit the amount of trout that could roam our future water ways. And it's caused by man yet again. The introduction of non-native fish, the biggest problem being carp. Brought here from Europe and other parts of the world the carp thrive here often reaching 20"-40" inches in length and weighing 8-40 pounds (And they get even bigger). These fish are gentle giants and in almost every pond, lake, stream, and river in the state and that's not a good thing. They are bottom feeders, which means they eat the eggs of the native species of fish including trout eggs. Carp populations are extremely high in the state and I personally know of areas where you can see dozens of them swimming around and eating everything in sight. They are always hungry and eat continuously, with only three natural predators. That being the occasional human(most people consider them garbage fish and throw them back), the blue heron(eats a very limited number of them), and the musky which is a fish that poses another threat.

Just yesterday I was fishing a deep hole in the Musconetcong for trout (stocked of course), and I see a musky swimming around, then another, and then another. The hole also had several dozen walleye all near two foot in length. Those fish are eating something, and it's most likely the trout which go down quite easily. They can swallow them whole. My point is here that musky and walleye are not native to New Jersey, and introduced by humans for sport fishing around the state.

We can never get rid of the carp, walleye, and musky. They do very well here in the state and populations have soared. Walleye and musky populations are still not large enough to deplete trout populations but carp are. Carp fishing is fun, what isn't about pulling out a three foot fish using a single piece of corn? My solution to the carp problem is to open up a bow hunting season for them, with contests, events, and other incentives for people help at least control their population. Just like we do for other land based animals such as deer.

Now some of you may be thinking why should the state do all this work for some fish species that practically disappeared decades ago? And that's an easy question. It benefits all types of fish species, as well as land based species that feed out of the rivers, which in turn affects us. It's a chain of events that betters the environment as a whole. Also it will help our dying lakes which have become so overwhelmed with seaweed it's becoming a health hazard. Lake Lackawanna in Byram township in the summer gives off such a smell that a passerby may become sick to their stomachs. Lake Musconetcong on the boarder of Sussex/Morris county once had beaches, boating, and swimming. Now it breed mosquitoes that make it hard to enjoy a warm summer night, once successful business on the lake all now all but gone, the beaches are so mucky that it's dangerous to enter because the 15 feet of quick sand like sediment. The max depth is 5 five and the water is so dirty it's impossible to see the bottom, and the weeds can't even grow past four feet because the sunlight can't reach bottom!

It's not just about brook trout. It's about new jobs, enhancing the economy, bringing revenue to lake communitys, addressing health issues, and helping to repair the environment that man altered the wrong way. Don't get me wrong, nature can be altered. It just has to be done the proper way without changing the ecology of the ecosystem. Man made global warming is not the cause of everything, and in fact it's not even proven to exist. Even if global temperatures went back to what the alarmist consider "normal", the environmental issues will not be solved. Not one of them.

P.S. -There is no "normal" temperature. Natural variability has been occurring for 4 billion years. Let's drop this global warming scam and actually address the REAL issues that we are facing. Next blog will be about how some blamed global warming on this recently harsh winter... yeah that's right. Warming means cold and snow. People need to stop talking out of their you know what's...

Is it over?

2010-03-13T13:49:00.003-05:00

First off, today marks the end of my consecutive snow cover. Since January 28th I have not seen my lawn until today making it a 45 streak (Jan 28th - Mar 13th). Here is the chart:

Impressive, but is it a record? Well, that will never be known since records like that have not been kept anywhere local except for Morristown which might as well be a different climate completely. I would compare this to the winter of 78' from what my parents told me, which means this was the worst overall winter in over 30 years when talking about the following statz:

The temps:

Days below freezing: 45 days

December average: 29.4 (-2.13 degrees)

January average: 25.8 (-0.68 degrees)

February average: 28.0 (-1.0 degrees)

The snow statz:

Days of snow cover: 85

Longest snow cover: 45 days

Season total snow: 78.9" (Average of last 7 winters is 53.7")

December snow: 22.25" (+14.95")

January snow: 6.00" (-8.00")

February snow: 48.9" (+40.9")

Deepest snow cover: 31.5"

Days of snowfall: 35

Ok, so it was an amazing winter. "Was" is past tense but will spring provide a shock to remind everyone to beware the ides of March? Right now all indices and models point to March 21st (the first day of spring) bringing winter back. It's way to far out right now, but the arctic oscillation which is currently positive will go back negative. If the cold comes back in at the right moment then local resorts may be skiing and riding into the Easter weekend, if they can survive the coming week and 5 inches of rain...

History Is Being Made?

2010-02-28T16:06:00.004-05:00

Well. I got finally got my snowstorm. The 8.5" inches of snow that I had on lawn turned into 31.5" inches in just a days time. Season totals in the higher elevations are now between 70"-90", more than what I thought. More than what anyone could have imagined. The thing is we still get snow in March, and even into April most years. It's not done yet.

First off here are statz of this winter season: (Netcong NJ)

Days Below Freezing -44

Season Total Snow - 77"

Days of Snow cover- 72

Days of Wintry precip- 32

Biggest Storm Total- 24.5" (Feb 25-28 still snowing now)

February Snow Total- 48" (That's Killington's Feb Average)

Longest Below Freezing Streak - Little over 300 hours!

And take a look at this drift, and that's me. In my camo, it's cause I always feel like I blend in with the trees when I'm boarding soft powder in the glades at Killington. Yeah, I do have some issues to work on.

Now on to the weather. Today snow squalls with being coming down out of the north and could produce some thunder. Anywhere from a trace to 2" could accumulate with the most in the higher terrain above 1,000 feet. (This is still the storm that dumped all snow since Thursday, just its part of that total)

Mountain Creek also has a 50"-60" inch base. Which is the highest that I personally have ever seen and just goes to show how much snow fell. I was walking just off the trail cause I fell in powder and the natural snow depth was up to my stomach on the north face of Vernon. That's 40" of natural stuff. These snow cover depths beat January 1996, and that's not easy to do. And snow melt will be slow and even more gets piled on.

Wednesday is our next possibility for snow. But as of right now does not look to good. It seems as if the low is going to go out to sea to far south for us to see anything more than flurries or a few snow showers. Of course the last storm shifted track on the models two days before! Let's see what happens to the system up in Maine early this week. Once that is out of the way the models will get a better grasp on the mid-week threat.

The fact is now that its March and most likely everyday will getting into the 40's in the coming weeks and 50's aren't too far off either. March comes in like Lion, but always seems to leave like a Lamb. And that should be the case this year. Remember this winter, because your going to talk and hear about for a very long time.

Check back this week for snow outlooks.

Well, It's Going To Snow

2010-02-24T23:00:00.004-05:00

First thing, just look at this: (OOz GFS)

When you hear claps of thunder don't be surprised. Winds will peak at the height of the storm and diminish as the low tracks right over us. I was going to go to Vermont, but it's going to rain there. This kind of storm doesn't happen very often.

Check out the snowmap. I had fun with this one. Of course that 24"+ will be somewhere, but it can still shift.

Enjoy the storm, cause it's going to be fun.

The Big Storm

2010-02-24T00:12:00.004-05:00

It's 12:12 A.M on Wednesday and I cannot sleep. The reason is I realize that I am about to experience history. But let's recap winter so far.

The first snow was October 15th followed by the 16th, then the 17th, and then the 18th. Yes, it snowed four days straight in the middle of October. For the Second October in a row we had accumulating snow. Both years were followed by snowless and mild Novembers, but the year before had a HOT October and November brought a surprise 6-10 inch snowstorm on the 19th. Perhaps it's something of interest with long term weather patterns?

The total snowfall so far this year for my house is 52.65 inches, along with 68 days of snow cover and we are currently in a 29 day stretch of consecutive snow cover.

Like the graph? Yeah I get bored. Anyway, I have also had 44 days this season where my day high time stayed below freezing. The average per year is around 31. Last year we had 50, which I do not think we will beat. The lowest temp was January 10th at 6.6 degrees, not very impressive for a winter.

As I look outside I see a thick, thaw resistant snowpack. That's what it is, snowpack. It's been building up since January and has become so solid you can walk on it and only make a small impression in the snow. It's not going anywhere for a long time. And now we are going to add what could be several feet on top of it.

Just take a look here:

That's a blizzard with heavy snowfall measured in feet with hurricane force winds. This could be the storm of the century. Your going to experience history if this is the scenario that's going to happen, because this make January 1996 look like a walk in the park.

Rough week ahead

2010-02-21T20:10:00.003-05:00

Yesterday I said that by sometime today I will know exactly what's going to happen with the storms (more than one) this coming week. I lied. The models are still all over the place, and it doesn't look right to me. First off we will start off as snow, then as warmer air invades the upper air it will change to sleet and even some freezing rain in southern portions of the area. It will be a very active week, but does not look like it will bring any big snow totals to the area.

Now on Friday the storm will basically get swallowed up into New England, and they will be measuring the snow there in feet. Which is exactly why I will be going to Killington Vermont this coming weekend. The only thing is, all we need is a small shift in the storm track and things can play out much different.

I can't say with certainty or with high confidence what's going to happen just yet. It's a complicated pattern and one that will be interesting to see the outcome. Check back tomorrow.

Interesting...

2010-02-20T12:30:00.002-05:00

Alright well I won't be around for long today. So let me just give you the run down for this coming week. First off we have a warmer system moving through Monday-Tuesday, this will make for a heavy wet snow around 1,000 feet and mixing with rain will occur below that. And yes big accumulations may come out of that. Second we have a storm trailing right behind this one that will get caught in the polar vortex and will sort of be sucked in off the coast right back inland. A classic set up. The only problem is the models are not in agreement, and it's to messy of a set up to start calling for accumulations and when/where they will happen. Tomorrow sometime after noon I will post another blog, by then I should know exactly what's going to happen. It looks interesting to say the least, and any weather personal that tries to give you a forecast before then is taking a shot in the dark because this is not going to be easy to forecast.

Oh boy. An old theory of mine came true...

2010-02-18T10:54:00.000-05:00

Check out this link on NE snowstorms. One of my old blogs.

http://meteomaddness.blogspot.com/2008/03/noreaster-2009.html

It's not even close to over...

2010-02-16T18:18:00.003-05:00

Today's little snow event brought my season total to 47 inches this season, which is nothing compared to areas south. The snowpack is back up a foot now and it's not going to melt very much, although it will melt some. Later this week the temperatures will reach the mid and upper 30's and many will be thinking that winter is coming to a close. They are wrong, and will get a taste of reality come next week. Arctic air will unload from the north and yes, a big snowstorm is in the making for early next week. Just check out the euro (Let's hope this isn't a mid-Atlantic special, cause we are the northeast!):

Clipper snow map

2010-02-15T11:01:00.003-05:00

Ok, we have a nice little clipper moving on through the area tonight into the day tomorrow. Now this time northwest Jersey is the winner, not by much though. Elevation will play a role this time because lower areas will be near or above freezing, which is why accumulations near the city have been cut down. I can see how there are a lot of 4 inch and 4.5 inch amounts but the higher terrain will pick up at least 6 inches. While the snow will be brief toward the city it will linger on and off through day Tuesday north and west as the clipper tries to bomb out off shore. Good news is I can see how Killington gets foot of freshies, and since I have a season pass there that makes me happy!

Here is the total QPF over the area:

And here is my snow map for the event. The 6+ won't have to occur where I indicated, I was just trying to show that higher terrain in some areas will squeeze out half a foot. Other than that I think this map will work pretty well for everyone.

Snow Snow Snow

2010-02-13T09:57:00.003-05:00

We have a good chance at a nice little snow event Monday-Tuesday. Right now I would say it looks like a 3-6 inch event for our immediate area, but we can handle that. It's just a little dusting right? Anyway the purpose of this blog is what the 00z Euro model is showing at 216 hours out for the 22nd of the month. This could mark the end of this snowy and cold pattern, or just be an addition to snowmaggedon. It's still far out, but the GFS has been showing it as well:

Winter in the east next year may not be so "great" so enjoy this pattern while it lasts. By the way check out the current snow cover. It extend from the Canadian border to the Gulf coast, and that includes Florida! All 50 states currently have snow cover, wow.

Snowmaggedon Continues....

2010-02-12T08:46:00.007-05:00

The deepest snow cover in the east right now isn't over Vermont, Maine, or even Mount Washington. It's over the Mid-Atlantic states, and that includes the nations capital. So far Washington D.C, Baltimore, Philly, Atlantic City, Delaware, South Jersey, South Eastern P.A, all of Maryland, and Northern Virginia all officially have their ALL TIME SNOWIEST WINTER on record going back to the late 1800's. It's normal for a city or two to break the record but an entire region? By this time tomorrow every single one the States will report snow cover on the ground. And that includes Florida! No doubt areas down there will also report all time season records, considering winter storm warnings extend into north Florida!!!

Here is the nations current snow cover:

Here is the southern snow storm:

And some people will be saying that more snow and cold is a sign of global warming. I say those people need to get theirs heads examined. Because no matter what happens with the weather, they say it's a cause of human induced global warming. It's complete lunacy, and as the world continues to cool they will find a way somehow someway to blame man.

Okay, enough of my ranting before I bore you to death. Let's talk more snow. Yes, it's coming again Monday night into Tuesday and it looks right now like a 3-5 inch event which we will add on top of our already deep snowpack. Check out the latest GFS run for the storm (needs to be watched closely for possible development):

Beyond this storm it looks like there is more to come. But let's take it one at a time? Snowmaggedon isn't letting up anytime soon and will continue right into March as the Arctic Oscillation is in the tank. I've never seen a weather set up like this before, this is a season people will talk about for years and years to come like the infamous 1996 and 1978. This is what the AO looks like:

Right now my town has 44"-47" inches of snow for the season (elevation depending), and today will mark day 41 of not getting above freezing. Last year we had 50 inches of snow and 50 days below freezing and we will break that in the coming weeks.

Remember if you ask nicely, the snow gods will provide!

Snowmap

2010-02-09T20:03:00.003-05:00

Here is the NWS snowfall forecast map. Which I like very much, perhaps they are a little to conservative though: (White area inicates about 15")

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Yeah, it's a blizzard

2010-02-09T07:48:00.005-05:00

When I was a little kid I remember one storm that dropped over 3 feet of snow and brought gusty winds. It was the last "true" blizzard that my area has ever experienced. Sure we have had some BIG snows like the presidents day storm, December 2006, and a few others but this one may require Blizzard warnings to be posted for almost the entire state. Winds of 35 mph or greater with heavy snow and visibility below 1/4 mile is the definition of blizzard, and it will happen. IT'S A BLIZZARD!

Now areas in Maryland and Virginia like D.C. will have nearly four feet of snow on the ground by Thursday morning. Four feet? And that includes Philly. Something is going on with our atmosphere because by the weekend I expect the nation to have it's all time record snow cover. From the Canadian border all the way to the Gulf Coast. Yes that means the state of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, and south east Texas. And with no "thaw" for the next two week AT LEAST the snow won't melt, not here anyway.

The latest precipitation amount for all of North Jersey is well over 1.25 inches of liquid, and now factor 15:1 and 20:1 ratios. And don't forget to factor in elevation and banding. My estimate being 15"-25" inches with locally higher amounts. You like that? I do.

Snow map later

Yeah, it

2010-02-09T07:48:00.001-05:00