Seven day for Mountain Creek

Well, I thought it would be a good idea to issue forecasts for Mountain Creek to see when snowmaking will resume and when natural snow will come again. As of now it looks like we won't see an accumulating snow event until possibly next Saturday, but it's still WAY to far out to confirm that.

It's going to be a snowy month

Well another 5.5 inches of snow fell this morning before the change over putting my towns season total at 13.5"-16.5" inches (elevation depending). And the current snow depth as of 6:00 AM is 11 inches. North Jersey season totals range from 10"-18" inches so far, and some places this winter (higher up) will get 80 inches of the white stuff.

We have two storms to look at. First one is Sunday and it is not a major event, but an area of 2-4 inches could cover part of our area. This is off the 6z GFS:

The second concern for snow is for next Thursday the 17th, it's still WAY to far out but it will dump a lot of snow somewhere. We just have to figure out exactly where that is...

Keep checking back daily, even several times daily. The weather is getting fun...

Snowmap for tonight

Here is the snow map for tonight's heavy burst of snow. Elevation won't play as big of a role this time around but it doesn't hurt in this scenario as temperatures will remain below freezing longer to allow the snow to accumulate. For each color indicated the higher end of the amount will be in the higher terrain and the low range in the valleys. After the snow it will turn to sleet, then freezing rain, and then just plain rain. Low lying areas will have the freezing rain longer than anyone else. That means Sussex Boro, Vernon Valley, Montague, and other low lying areas.

More snow!

It's going to snow again, but this time won't stay snow for the duration. As of right now the models are showing nearing an inch of liquid by 12z Wednesday (7:00am) as all snow. But let's count in for higher snow ratios and mixing as well, this time points further north will get more. And in some cases elevation will matter yet again, and that's just the temperature at the surface and if it allows the snow to stick. Right now it looks like 3-5 inches before the change over to rain, but most of the precip will fall as snow. So we will not loose our snowcover. Here are the soundings from Andover and Sussex airports.

Andover airport

Sussex Airport:

It's going to snow, and it's going to keep coming... Check back tomorrow for a snowmap

That went well

Recap:

This past winter storm went exactly how I forecasted in my snow map, here all some snow totals:

Hopatcong- 9 inches

Netcong Heights- 8 inches

Jefferson- 6 inches

And this is why those areas get pounded every time, the elevation. This picture is taken at Netcong Heights looking down on my neighborhood actually. My towns season total snowfall is now 8"-11" inches depending on elevation, while Killington Vermont only has 20" so far.

And having that much elevation makes this happen often...

The outlook:

Right now it seems like winter is really setting in. It's 6:07 and already 24.4 degrees with tons of snow on the ground and we never did get above the freezing mark. Wednesdays snow to rain event will not be enough to melt the hard dense snow cover over the higher elevations, and lake effect snow squalls will come during the end of the week as well putting down up to a few inches in the higher terrain. By next Thursday Mountain Creek will able to turn on the snowmakers and leave them on for a week continuously. They will be able to open within a week.

Check back for updates, after all this is the only and therefore the "most accurate" source for North West Jersey weather. May many feet of snow fall upon you.

So it does snow in NJ?

Current snowstorm:

Sitting at my computer right now I can look out my window and see the ground covered in already over an inch of snow. I was just in Roxbury about five minutes away and the snow was only sticking on cars and mulch surfaces, but in Netcong the roads (including major roads) are all covered as temperatures have fallen below freezing. Elevation between the two areas is about 500 feet, and it really shows considering the temperature dropped 4 degrees during my five minute drive. Elevation like always will play a key role. Here is my snowmap:

Snowmaking anytime soon:

Even though it's snowing and below freezing snow making is currently not possible. It is 31 degrees right now in Netcong with 85% humidity making for a wet bulb temperature of 29 and 27 is required to make snow. Of course it will get colder over night and within the next few hours the wet bulb will reach the required levels and the snow guns could go on with marginal snowmaking, but tonight should make for good snowmaking. Tomorrow high temperature shouldn't get above freezing in most areas so snowmaking can go all day at the summit for Mountain Creek and then again tomorrow night. This will not be enough to open the resort though, unless they have some tricks up their sleeves. I personally suggest just blowing large piles of snow and leaving them untouched (not groomed) because it looks like a rain storm next week and temperatures above freezing. This will make less surface area over the snow and won't allow it to melt as easy if it was all spread out, then next weekend snowmaking will resume and that will be the cold shot that starts off the ski season in New Jersey.

Check out the wet bulb chart for yourself-

http://www.snowathome.com/pdf/wet_bulb_chart_fahrenheit.pdf

Snowstorm will miss us :(

The past model runs have shown some BIG snows for this weekends storm, but now all operational models have gone to the storm going off of the coast putting down snow along the NJ coast, Cape Cod, and Long Island. But that's it. What a bummer! Snowmaking temperatures will prevail overnight this weekend, but not enough to open Mountain Creek, not yet anyway. I was actually thinking that December 12th will be opening day.

For now we need to deal with a massive rain storm that will ride up the coast tomorrow night into Thursday. Then the cold air moves in and a snowy and cold pattern will persist. Winter is finally going to set up...

P.S. This weekends storm is still kind of far out, maybe the models will shift the low west. Keep your fingers crossed!