Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Winter So Far...


Where are we with season snowfall? 70.2"!  Above average by 19" but nothing extreme as previous years have been snowier.

Now the cold this year is another story. It has been so consistently cold and this year 63 days (ave is 40) failed to break freezing for high temperatures. The coldest winter since the turn of the century! 

We have had above average snow and with all this cold it's not really melting all that much. Take a look at this years snow depth chart. In fact 71% of meteorological winter had snow on the ground.

As for the rest of March it looks like the colder than normal temperatures will continue. Of course that's relative to average considering seasonal forcing will begin to warm our temperatures. March is still a snowy for us here in Northern NJ and yes there is more potential by next week. Still needs to be watched and see if anything can come from this.

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Map

It's coming... With winds below 35 mph for most of the state this is not a "blizzard" like some social media weather sites are claiming. There is a potential that parts of North Jersey could reach 20" in more intense banding. Stay safe everyone and try to stay home from work tomorrow!


Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Big Storm On The Way

New 00z NAM shows 12+ inches for NW Jersey. Will make a map tomorrow for the event but right now it seems like a solid 10"-15" area wide, and there could be a band near 18".


Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Back From Vacation

I'm back in Jersey now and ready for the storm. I was up in Vermont and to be honest, Jersey has more snow than Killington right now. Conditions were not the best up there for snowboarding and skiiing but I still had a lot of fun. 

I was unable to forecast for Monday's storm but here is my map for tomorrows storm. Sorry for the lack of discussion on this situation but I'm stressed for time this evening. The snow will start around mid night and come down heavy until the morning commute before it changes over to mix south of I-80. Areas between I-80 and I-78 could see a serious ice event so please use caution. 



As for this weekends storm, please it's to far out and anything be forecasted is speculation at this point. Let's get through this system first then on to the next. 

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Winter Recap So Far...

All this extreme cold has lead to not only the lakes freezing but all the major rivers. Ice jams are going to be a major problem during the next thaw and in fact are already causing some minor flooding along portions of the Musconetcong River in Stephans State Park.


While effects right now of the ice build up is not very significant it will be a serious concern in the coming weeks. Ice jams are unpredictable where and when they will occur and can cause dangerous flash flooding when a ice dam like the one above breaks. Bridges can sometimes get overwhelmed by the ice flows causing failure, and here in New Jersey they were not designed with these situtations in mind.

So where are we at in reguards to winter this year compared to average? Let's take a look. First off here is a look at the current deep freeze. Data taken from my weather station (a centralized location in North Jersey). Impressive but nothing abnormal for January to be honest. This deep freeze will continue for the next week at  least with temps approaching the upper 20's for Monday which will be the warmest day in a two week period.

Compared to average snowfall we are currently running just above average with 32" of snow this season and average is around 50" in the highlands with lower amounts in the valleys of around 36"-40".

I also like to keep track of the number of days with high temperatures that fail to break freezing. Average for the entire year is around 39 days and today (Sunday the 26th) marks number 37. Clearly well above the average with two months of cold yet to come. Could be a record breaking year if we can top 55 days from the 10'-11' winter. 

With all that said winter is from over. Check back for updates of any more storm threats. 

Monday, January 20, 2014

Snowstorm Forecast

Over the last few days models have brought the storm further north and west putting North Jersey in a winter storm warning. Some models still have the heaviest precip south of area with a 2"-5" event for the area, other models on the other extreme have as much as 12"+. My forecast will have a safe medium between the extremes and if any new model data in the 00z run shows a significant trend difference I'll revise my forecast.

Here are a look at the QPF on some models:



SHREF (Over 1.00" of liquid)



Generally taking the average of these models is the best bet for forecasting an accurate snowfall measurement, but first we need to figure out the snow ratios. Since it will be snowing in the teens and single digits we could see double what the normal ratio conversion is. Off the SHREF we see snow starting as 20:1 and toward the end of the event 35:1 this is opposed to the typical 10:1. 

For example if we have 0.5" of liquid equivalent typically we would call for 4"-6" but with 25:1 snow ratios we are now talking 10"-16" just because the air colder. 



Update tonight after the 00z runs if needed** (10:00pm or so)

Sunday, January 19, 2014

Little Snow Coming

One of the impulses riding along the base of the trough will turn into an accumulating event. Areas from Virginia, Delaware, South Jersey, all the way to Cape Cod will get a 2"-5" snow event. North Jersey may get about an inch with the least toward High Point. More weak systems will continue to move through and each has a possibility of becoming a coastal storm. 
In the wake of the system the polar vortex once again makes an appearance this time coming down through the great lakes instead of the Dakotas. This means it will have less time to modify and could be colder than the outbreak we had earlier this month....