Saturday, January 31, 2009
Don't lose all hope, remember keep the unlikely in the realm of possibility.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Thursday, January 29, 2009
A major snowstorm is on the way, let's just hope the low track off of the coast and not west of the mountains.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Monday, January 26, 2009
Expect more updates tomorrow evening. Sorry for slacking on the blog as of lately, this school work is getting to be a bit much.
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Anyway I will post one tomorrow night after the 18z models come out, might not be till like 9:00 at night though. But I can say, a winter storm is on the way :)
Wow that rhymed... Sweet
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Thursday, January 22, 2009
On another note:
February looks interesting, enough said for now. Hint hint.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Monday, January 19, 2009
"All these leads me to believe that winter temperatures will be near normal, day time highs will be below normal but the over night lows will be warmer than normal. With the AMO/PDO in their current phase it suggests that in working with the NAO winter will bring above average precipitation and season snow totals will finally get back to normal to above normal. Whenever the NAO goes negative in the winter I can almost say that a coastal storm will form! That's a good thing for snow lovers. We will have some extreme cold days but because of the AO trend it doesn't seem likely that harsh long-term cold will be the case this year, which is good because really cold weather lowers seasonal snowfall. Remember check the NAO often! Here is the forecasted seasonal snowfall."
Let's see how this year is REALLY going so far. First we will take a look at the temperatures, and since we got a first snow storm in October I will start there: (Sussex County)
Oct: -1.4 below average
Nov: -1.8 below average
Dec: -0.5 below average
Jan: -5.9 below average
Ok, so with the temperatures I said the season will be near normal. It looks significantly below average to me. Each month the daytime high was colder normal, but every month except January had night time lows warmer than average. Let's see what happens in Feb and March. Moving onto the snowfall amounts. (Sussex County)
Oct: Trace - 15
Dec: 13 - 16
Jan: 7 - 10
Season total so far: 20" - 40" across Sussex County with the greatest amounts in the higher elevations. As of right now, we are right at average, thanks to that rare October snow.
Unfortunately, from central Jersey south they aren't that lucky. Near the coast, they have picked up very little in the way of snowfall. Some places have a seasonal total of a Trace. Just like in my season total snow map, there was going to be a large variation from the coast to the mountains. And I based that mainly off of the warm phase of the AMO. (Read my winter outlook to get a better understanding) http://meteomaddness.blogspot.com/2008/10/north-atlantic-oscillation.html
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Saturday, January 17, 2009
"Okay So I've been sitting here researching all the weather websites. They are saying 2 to 4 from the clipper. its way uyp by the great lakes? What can we expect from that? And Also since most they can never forecast weather i think the coastal storm will hit us?"
Yeah I did notice that a lot of sites were saying two-four inches of snow. We have the three major ones being weather.com, accuweather, and Noaa. Most of all those other sites just take their forecasts straight from Noaa (like wunderground). But Ill only go with the one-two inches, two inches being generous I think. Clippers just don't give us a lot of snow, and I have a little story for you.
When I was coming home from Louisville Kentucky I had to cross over the Allegheny Mountains of West Virgina and Maryland. As I was going up the west slopes there was precip falling the entire time, until I hit Big Savage Mountain. From that point on I was now on the east slopes of the Mountains and going down hill. Within a minute it went from being moderate precip falling to blue skies and temperature rose. This is called a rain shadow and it's why clippers and lake effect snow can rarely reach us with ample precip.
As air rises it expands and begins to cool (7 degrees per thousand feet) which allows for condensation. This is why the Mountains of West Virgina, North Carolina, and even North Georgia can get lake effect snows! It just sucks the moisture right out of the atmosphere. Now when the air finally makes it over the mountains it starts to sink and instead of cooling, it now warms up and becomes dry. Unfortunately with the mountains to our west, this happens to us all the time. You can blame the Poconos, and even High Point!
Since the storm is now dried out, it turns to the ocean to intensify. The only problem is that we are a little too far away from the ocean so the only people who benefit are eastern Long Island, coastal Jersey, and Cape Cod. If you want some nice snow, Cape Cod is the place to be this weekend!
This clipper should squeeze out some light accumulations (1-2)and the coastal storm will likely miss us entirely. But like you said, these models can never forecast weather right so always keep the unlikely in the realm of possibility.
Hope this helped some!
Friday, January 16, 2009
As I am waiting for the models to come out after 2:00 A.M. (yes I'm crazy), besides drinking a bunch of coffee, I am thinking toward the future. If this storm doesn't work out for Monday, then the GFS is hinting at one for the end of this up coming week. After that storm, cold air will pour back into the region, maybe even colder than this latest blast. January is already 8 degrees below average, but could end up over 10 below and perhaps become the all time record. We will have to see about that, but it's close!
Lake Placid: -16.6
Thursday, January 15, 2009
The cooling across the global is most likely due to the reduction in solar irradiance which could possibly last years and years to come. Because the solar cycle has been delayed by several years, global cooling will most likely continue for atleast the next two to three years. Our sun may be reaching a new solar minimum which could be equal to the extent of the Dalton Minimum during the Little Ice Age. Also Here see for more about the solar cycle effecting climate.
My Forecast- 27/16
My Forecast- 33/15
My Forecast- 18/2
My Forecast- 9/-7
As for Thursday (Today) the low will happen at mid night sometime after the second arctic front moves on through.
My Forecast- 2/-10
As for Friday there is no actual cause it hasn't happened yet, but the low will be set sometime in the morning hours around 7 A.M. When I forecast I do from mid-night to mid-night, so Friday night the temperature will actually rebound a little.
My Forecast- 11/-2
I may actually want to adjust Saturday to 13/2, but that still cold. Don't ya think?
My Forecast- 21/3
I am going to adjust this one to 23/9 with a chance of snow.
That's it for now, Ill post again after the 18z models tonight for snow chances.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Ironically, while Obama is being sworn in, one topic of discussion will be global warming. Let's see how they like 20 degrees with heavy snow. The global warming belief seems to be dieing out with the new year...
P.S. (As you can tell, I am not one to believe in the whole global warming theory. Comments and emails are totally acceptable, I love a good debate.)
If you can, please comment on this post if you have any suggestions for me. I would really appreciate it!
P.S. I was just watching the weather channel and they were trying to explain why 2008 was the coldest year in 30 years world wide. (They blamed la nina) They actually had the nerve to say that 2009 is already warmer than 2008. IT'S 14 DAYS IN? HOW CAN YOU SAY THAT? Now I remember why I stopped watching the weather channel. They are biased, inaccurate, and unprofessional at times.
"About 4.5 inches of snow will accumulate with a high of 15 and low of -5"
Monday, January 12, 2009
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Saturday, January 10, 2009
I just checked the soundings with the 6z runs and the NAM is showing all snow, as well as the GFS but im sure most of us will see a change over to sleet. Im calling for 5-9 for northwest Jersey, and im sticking to it!
Friday, January 9, 2009
Thanks! And try to comment this post and see if it even works. Let me know? Ok? Cool!
Thursday, January 8, 2009
The general trend still looks to be 4-7 inches but keep checking back in, these things always change.
With the pattern the next two weeks we need to start thinking about clipper systems coming from the north and west, because it's really the only type of snows we can get in a such a cold snap. This Saturday will be the first of these clippers which will bring several inches of fresh snow to our area! From then on out it will remain cold and some light snows here and there, but nothing to serious.
Unlike the last storm, I WILL make a snow map for this one. The reason I did not make one for the last is because I really didn't see the snow amounts that Accuweather, weather.com, NOAA, and local news channels were seeing. Upper level warm air was coming in WAY to fast to support snows for a long period of time and most of the "snow" period fell as either virga or a dry slot was over us.
January is looking bright, just not the last few days of the month :(
Monday, January 5, 2009
Looking into the future after this storm a cold front will move through bring us the coldest and longest duration of cold in perhaps several years. There could be several days in a row where we won't be able to get above 20 degrees and maybe the first negatives since February 4th of 2007. The cold will mostly likely be the heart of our winter, but yielding little in the way of natural snowfall. The good news is that the ski resorts in the region will reach full operation, this will be Mountain Creek first in about 3 winters.
Around the 24th of the month a storm will ride up the coast, perhaps providing us with some nice snows, but it's all bad news. The storm is riding up a warm front which will bring in an all out January thaw where temperatures could reach the 60's. This warmth could last through the first week of February or even longer. Beyond this time frame, I would only be guessing what was going to happen.
I have a saying that one extreme leads to another of the opposite. So the coldest air in years would mean that the warmest air in years will soon follow. It always happens that way with the weather here in Northwest Jersey, even in the historic winter of 95-96 when over three feet of natural snow pack melted in a week with extreme warmth and a massive rain storm. It's just the way things go...
With the information I have now I would say 2-4 inches of snow could accumulate before the sloppy change over then significant ice is possible on the mountain tops, something Creek doesn't want more of. But a quick inch could fall on the back side before it all ends.
Right now I'm working on a snow map waiting for more updates to come out, and also some footage of my Maine trip. I will posts more blogs a little later on, probably a few of them today to catch up.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
After spending an entire week without checking computer models I am back and getting into weather mode again. When I left I was looking at a storm for the 3rd of January which could have been a big snow maker. Since today is the 4Th, it's safe to say nothing happened, not yet anyway. The weather has been modified slightly and some of that energy from the storm I was seeing a week ago will still be coming our way.
During the week a storm will ride up the Mountains with snow at the start, then going to a mix, and then to just plain old rain. But what else is new right? It's been that story for the past two years already. The position of the storm means everything and with a lack of cold air in place it's gonna be sloppy instead of snowy.
More updates tomorrow with maps!
What about snow making?
After this storm moves on through it looks like the longest stretch of cold air will move this winter and could yield some minor snows here and there, but I don't see anything to get excited for just yet. Mountain Creeks trail counts will rise steadily and could near full operation by mid month.
~ 13.8 inches of snow (185% of the average)
~Average high = 38.2 ( -1.2 from average)
~Average low = 23.8 ( +2.9 from average)
~11 days of snow
~15 days of snow pack
December ended up slightly warmer than normal but with almost double the normal snowfall for the month.
Tomorrow I will post videos and pictures of my trip to Maine and try to check up with the current weather events coming our way. I need to unpack and get some sleep tonight but expect more post/posts tomorrow! Think snow.