Friday, January 16, 2009

One, two, PUNCH?

First let's just update on this latest cold blast. Here are some low temperatures from last night:
Hackettstown: -1.0
Schooley's Mountain: -1.4
Wildcat Ridge: -2.0
High Point Mon.: -3.0
Belvidere: -5.0
Hope Township: -6.0
Montague: -10.7

Mount Washington: -25.0

Bangor: -23.0
Rangeley: -26.0
Caribou: -36.6

Jay: -15.0
Stowe: -19.0

Saranac Lake: -12.2
Lake Placid: -16.6

Ok, so it was cold this morning. And High Point only got down to 3 below, but the west side of the mountain fell to below -10.0 degrees! I guess that 1803 foot mountain blocked that cold air from pouring into the heart of Sussex County.

Now let's talk about this possible one, two punch for Sunday-Monday-Tuesday. There is not one but two storms. The first one is a clipper but as of right now looks like it will go off to our north. After that storm goes into New England a secondary low will form off the coast of the Delmarva and pull north. That storm passes off to our east giving New York 3-5 inches, but northwest Jersey gets nothing. But is this how it will really happen?

So far this year the storm track on the models has been either to far east, or to far south. Ok, this means that the first clipper will ride off north of us, but that's what we want. If that storm goes off to the north it means the storm coming up the coast will track further west. From all these past BUSTS on these storms (because of models being wrong) the people to our north and west have had all the snow. Now we are those people to the north and west, let's see what happens. Here is the 6z GFS run. If/when the model changed I will post a new blog.

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