Monday, January 5, 2009

It's never all snow anymore...

Well, yet again, a storm is on the horizon that will bring wintry weather but of course there will be a change over from snow. That's no surprise.

First off let's look at the NAM model and then check the atmospheric soundings to see what kind of precip we can expect.

At the start we can see a lack of cold air around but the NAM is a model that does not do very well with cold air. Thats why we now go to the sounding.

This sounding shows all snow, but only for the start.

Below is mid way through the storm and NAM shows some warm air around, but then look at the sounding. The surface temperature remains below zero. This is clearly sleet and freezing rain above 500 feet in elevation.

For the end of the storm on Thursday the NAM is hinting at some back lash snow which could put down a little more accumuations. Here is the model and sounding:

With the information I have now I would say 2-4 inches of snow could accumulate before the sloppy change over then significant ice is possible on the mountain tops, something Creek doesn't want more of. But a quick inch could fall on the back side before it all ends.

Right now I'm working on a snow map waiting for more updates to come out, and also some footage of my Maine trip. I will posts more blogs a little later on, probably a few of them today to catch up.


Anonymous said...

Wow, very complicated storm. Here by sussex air port are we above 500 feet? I don't know what to expect!

Darren Milliron said...

Sussex airport is actually the lowest elevation in Sussex county at around 400 feet in elevation. But your position so far north will help allow for a longer period of wintry weather. It's just gunna be a mess everywhere you go with snow, sleet, rain, and freezing rain. And I HATE freezing rain!

Anonymous said...

Is it goign to change to rain? Cause the temperature is only suppsoed to rise to 31 degrees

Darren Milliron said...

Personally it may get a little warmer than that for a short time during the day Wednesday. There most likely will be a period of just plain rain, but it will be close. That's why we need to watch the higher elevations like High Point and the top of Mountain Creek. The ice storm shouldn't be too bad though, or maybe I'm just saying that to be optimistic because I HATE freezing rain... lol