Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Some snow for New Years

A storm will come up from the south and brush over the area bring a complete snow event to northwest Jersey (No Mixing). Higher elevations will get more than the lower elevations because the temperature could hover around freezing. As of right now it's looking like 4-6 inches, check back tomorrow morning for a snow map.

Friday, December 25, 2009

Arctic Oscillation Spells Trouble

The latest AO forecast is off the charts. Since I have been into the weather I have never seen it go off the charts, and for so long. This signals one thing, extreme cold. When the AO is negative it means the cold air over the poles is easily transported to lower latitudes, and it's not polar air it's pure arctic air. To me this is a precursor of nasty times ahead.

This coupled with a negative NAO sends all the cold air into our region. After this winter I don't want to hear a thing about global warming, and neither will you. Check it out, it's almost unreal.




































This intense blocking pattern over the arctic circle could be due to volcanic activity injecting sulfur into the stratosphere warming it which in turn cools the troposphere. The basis behind the AO! But that's only theory...

P.S I ended my below freezing streak with 225 hours and 32 minutes consecutive. (Not bad for December)

Thursday, December 24, 2009

Winter is just starting...

It's been 204 hours and 6 minutes since my weather station has recorded above freezing temperatures. Today will mark day 12 this month without getting above freezing but should be the end, for now. Most places in New Jersey have received around 2 feet of snow so far this season putting most areas from central Jersey and south ABOVE average for the entire season! It's day 19 of consecutive snow cover over northwest Jersey and the entire state will have a white Christmas, which hasn't happened in a long time. Philly, DC, Atlantic City, Baltimore, and most of the south is now at or significantly above seasonal snowfall. Resorts like Mountain Creek have been able to open terrain like it's their job. Four peaks in a week and two days at Creek? That's never happened in all my years and they should be in full operation by New Years, which is just mind boggling. The nation is now facing it's third blizzard in two weeks, and in Europe over 80 people have died from the extreme cold. Guess what. Extreme cold is coming next week and it's going to smash the records that have been around for 150 years. And you know what? Winter just started 3 days ago..

It's on folks...


P.S. Christmas Storm looks icy but look what is on the maps for New Years, the nations 4th blizzard in three weeks?


Saturday, December 19, 2009

From Vermont

Well I'm in Vermont, and it's currently -2 degrees here in Rutland. Anyway I have very limited resources considering I'm on my cell phone so I can't do a snow map. But I can attach picutures so here it goes:

Case 1: Storm slides south (just by 30 miles) this means we get 2-4 inches



















Case 2: Storm rides on "current path" and we get 4-8 inches with less north


















Case 3: Storm comes 30 west of current track and we get 10-14 inches


















Lets go with the 4-8 inches to be safe, but small changes either way will drastically change the situation. It's interesting... places in South Jersey might get up to two feet!

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Blizzard on Sunday?

The NAM is really going all out with this storm, and as of now it's the only one. As of right now the model is predicting 18"-24" inches with spots of 30". Could this be true? "Winds of 35 mph for three hours or longer with reduced visibility below 1/4 mile and moderate to heavy snow", is the definition of a blizzard and what the model shows is exactly that. Check back tomorrow morning, I'll post again before I head out for Vermont.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Seven day for Mountain Creek

Well, I thought it would be a good idea to issue forecasts for Mountain Creek to see when snowmaking will resume and when natural snow will come again. As of now it looks like we won't see an accumulating snow event until possibly next Saturday, but it's still WAY to far out to confirm that.

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

It's going to be a snowy month

Well another 5.5 inches of snow fell this morning before the change over putting my towns season total at 13.5"-16.5" inches (elevation depending). And the current snow depth as of 6:00 AM is 11 inches. North Jersey season totals range from 10"-18" inches so far, and some places this winter (higher up) will get 80 inches of the white stuff.

We have two storms to look at. First one is Sunday and it is not a major event, but an area of 2-4 inches could cover part of our area. This is off the 6z GFS:

The second concern for snow is for next Thursday the 17th, it's still WAY to far out but it will dump a lot of snow somewhere. We just have to figure out exactly where that is...

Keep checking back daily, even several times daily. The weather is getting fun...

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Snowmap for tonight

Here is the snow map for tonight's heavy burst of snow. Elevation won't play as big of a role this time around but it doesn't hurt in this scenario as temperatures will remain below freezing longer to allow the snow to accumulate. For each color indicated the higher end of the amount will be in the higher terrain and the low range in the valleys. After the snow it will turn to sleet, then freezing rain, and then just plain rain. Low lying areas will have the freezing rain longer than anyone else. That means Sussex Boro, Vernon Valley, Montague, and other low lying areas.


Monday, December 7, 2009

More snow!

It's going to snow again, but this time won't stay snow for the duration. As of right now the models are showing nearing an inch of liquid by 12z Wednesday (7:00am) as all snow. But let's count in for higher snow ratios and mixing as well, this time points further north will get more. And in some cases elevation will matter yet again, and that's just the temperature at the surface and if it allows the snow to stick. Right now it looks like 3-5 inches before the change over to rain, but most of the precip will fall as snow. So we will not loose our snowcover. Here are the soundings from Andover and Sussex airports.

Andover airport

Sussex Airport:

It's going to snow, and it's going to keep coming... Check back tomorrow for a snowmap

Sunday, December 6, 2009

That went well

Recap:

This past winter storm went exactly how I forecasted in my snow map, here all some snow totals:
Hopatcong- 9 inches
Netcong Heights- 8 inches
Jefferson- 6 inches

And this is why those areas get pounded every time, the elevation. This picture is taken at Netcong Heights looking down on my neighborhood actually. My towns season total snowfall is now 8"-11" inches depending on elevation, while Killington Vermont only has 20" so far.


And having that much elevation makes this happen often...


The outlook:
Right now it seems like winter is really setting in. It's 6:07 and already 24.4 degrees with tons of snow on the ground and we never did get above the freezing mark. Wednesdays snow to rain event will not be enough to melt the hard dense snow cover over the higher elevations, and lake effect snow squalls will come during the end of the week as well putting down up to a few inches in the higher terrain. By next Thursday Mountain Creek will able to turn on the snowmakers and leave them on for a week continuously. They will be able to open within a week.

Check back for updates, after all this is the only and therefore the "most accurate" source for North West Jersey weather. May many feet of snow fall upon you.

Saturday, December 5, 2009

So it does snow in NJ?

Current snowstorm:

Sitting at my computer right now I can look out my window and see the ground covered in already over an inch of snow. I was just in Roxbury about five minutes away and the snow was only sticking on cars and mulch surfaces, but in Netcong the roads (including major roads) are all covered as temperatures have fallen below freezing. Elevation between the two areas is about 500 feet, and it really shows considering the temperature dropped 4 degrees during my five minute drive. Elevation like always will play a key role. Here is my snowmap:


Snowmaking anytime soon:

Even though it's snowing and below freezing snow making is currently not possible. It is 31 degrees right now in Netcong with 85% humidity making for a wet bulb temperature of 29 and 27 is required to make snow. Of course it will get colder over night and within the next few hours the wet bulb will reach the required levels and the snow guns could go on with marginal snowmaking, but tonight should make for good snowmaking. Tomorrow high temperature shouldn't get above freezing in most areas so snowmaking can go all day at the summit for Mountain Creek and then again tomorrow night. This will not be enough to open the resort though, unless they have some tricks up their sleeves. I personally suggest just blowing large piles of snow and leaving them untouched (not groomed) because it looks like a rain storm next week and temperatures above freezing. This will make less surface area over the snow and won't allow it to melt as easy if it was all spread out, then next weekend snowmaking will resume and that will be the cold shot that starts off the ski season in New Jersey.

Check out the wet bulb chart for yourself-

http://www.snowathome.com/pdf/wet_bulb_chart_fahrenheit.pdf

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Snowstorm will miss us :(

The past model runs have shown some BIG snows for this weekends storm, but now all operational models have gone to the storm going off of the coast putting down snow along the NJ coast, Cape Cod, and Long Island. But that's it. What a bummer! Snowmaking temperatures will prevail overnight this weekend, but not enough to open Mountain Creek, not yet anyway. I was actually thinking that December 12th will be opening day.

For now we need to deal with a massive rain storm that will ride up the coast tomorrow night into Thursday. Then the cold air moves in and a snowy and cold pattern will persist. Winter is finally going to set up...

P.S. This weekends storm is still kind of far out, maybe the models will shift the low west. Keep your fingers crossed!