Saturday, December 27, 2008
Here is the Euro model, as of 12:23 it's yesterdays model but it will update by atleast 3:00 today. I wont be around so it's up to you! If you see an area of low pressure along the east coast with the second blue color over the area than the Euro went over to snow! If the low remains over the mid-west and we stay in the warm colors than we have rain. (This will update by itself right here on the blog so check back soon! And click for bigger image)
Friday, December 26, 2008
Thursday, December 25, 2008
18z GFS run:
Interestingly, I see two possibilities here. The first one is a negative tilted trough with a storm that gets talked about in text books and remembered for years to come. When a storm gets caught up in a negative titled trough (Like Oct 28th of this year) amazing things happen. Or the second being the lack of cold air with this system and it's just rain maker. When the EURO model starts to forecast this storm (not for another day or two) , it will be the ice breaker, and then I will get a much better picture. Until then, I will be waiting anxiously till the 12z model tomorrow and the 00z model Saturday. It's like Christmas presents all over again, you never know what your gunna get! :)
This is the North Atlantic Oscillation, and it is the largest influence on the weather here in the North East United States. When it's negative we get cold and storms, when it's positive we have warmth and sunny skies. So you can imagine that the last two winter were mostly positive, and they were! But you look at a year like 1996 which was mostly negative and the big picture comes to life. This image above is embeded directly from NOAA and updates daily on it's own so you can come back to this blog to see how it changes from day to day. The black represents the past, and the red is what forcasted. When it goes negative expect cold and snow this time of the year, and notice it's highly negative for our January 3rd storm... interesting stuff, let's see how it all holds up.
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Ok, well in my long ranger I talked about how the weather is going to be, well, boring until perhaps January 1st-5th. I now see a BIG storm coming up for around the 3rd-5th (one of those days) and it looks LIKELY to happen. But, will it be rain, sleet, or snow?
This is what is looks like on the GFS: (Click for bigger image)
This is what our new weather pattern is going to look like that should last around six weeks. It will go from very warm, then a storm will move in bringing with it cold air. Now, will the storms be snow for our region or rain? That's the big question! But this being the "start" of the pattern could give us a sign of what the majority of our winter will bring. Ofcourse it's way too far out right now but this will be the focus of my blog in the coming weeks...
It's not looking to good. There will be some cold for night snow making and perhaps a flurry or two here and there but it seems likely nothing will happen till January :(
P.S. December is running +4.3 inches of snow above so far and -.20 degrees below average.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
By the way, happy first day of winter!
Let's start closer to present day and move on.
12/24-25: It looks to be a wet Christmas rather than white :(
12/26-31: It looks like a seasonable pattern with a new years rain storm
1/1-5: We could see a shot of nice cold and prehaps a storm?
1/5-15: The pattern will shift, some say it will be extremely warm. Although I do believe we will have an EXTREME thaw in January I believe a big storm may come out of the clash of air masses.
1/15-30: As of that far I would just be guessing, or lieing, which ever you want to believe. Anyway, I do think that the BEST conditions of the season are NOW! So go to the resorts ASAP. The north Jersey snowpack could reach up to 20 inches in the Mountains after tomorrows storm. Go out, have fun, and enjoy the Vermont like conditions. They won't last long.
P.S. Monday will be the coldest day of the winter so far. Sussex county highs will be 12-16 degrees and lows from 4-9. Keep warm!!!!
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Let's move on to Christmas storm, although it's not good news. As of right now it looks like the storm will be mostly rain. The only thing is the models just 4 days ago showed a storm on the 19th being rain, and we all know it was snow so things can always change.
How much snow did you get in your area? Any questions or comments? Let me know! Have an awesome weekend and check back often.
Friday, December 19, 2008
As for tomorrow snow showers will be around and snowmaking will go round the clock! I don't suggest going to Creek tomorrow because it will be VERY crowded. Try going at around 5:00 at night when everyone leaves, or go Sunday night. The Sunday storm looks to be all frozen precip but more mixing could go on, but it seems that the area will get 4-8 inches. Check back tomorrow morning, I will post a snowmap and some m0dels!
Have an awesome weekend!
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Here is a skew-T- Diagram for JFK airport Friday morning.
This is based off of the 18z run of the GFS and shows all snow falling. The air according to the models over JFK during most of the storm is marginal so you might luck out with lower snow accumulations over that area. If the storm shifts slightly (I'm talking 20 miles) then you have 10 inches of snow at JFK. I'll update tomorrow with the new model runs, check back in! I hoped this helped!
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Monday, December 15, 2008
Hazardous Weather Outlook
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 PM EST MON DEC 15 2008
335 PM EST MON DEC 15 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WINTRY WEATHER EVENT IS LIKELY STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC AIR
BEHIND IT AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COUPLE OF PRECIPITATION SURGES ARE FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE REGION.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR PRECIPITATION
TO FALL AS SLEET AND SNOW. AS MORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN, ITS POSSIBLE
THAT PRECIPITATION MIGHT CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY EVENING. THE
PROCESS IS THEN EXPECTED TO REVERSE ITSELF LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN OR JUST END AS
THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WINTER
STORM WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET MIGHT ACCUMULATE ALONG WITH A GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS CONTINUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WOULD START
IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY AND HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE ALSO.
PLEASE USE THE TIME PRIOR TO THE EVENT TO MAKE THE NECESSARY
To be honest, I see how the higher elevations get a little snow, but something seems very wrong to me about this whole storm. We could wake up tomorrow surprised, or we could wake up very disappointed. At this point, I would encourage you to try looking at weather models, soundings, and the NOAA winter weather outlooks. All this can be found on the right hand side of my page. The models come out at 00utc (mid night) 06utc(6 AM) 12utc(noon) 18utc(6 PM), try it! If you have any questions or comments on anything feel free to email or comment, I'll try my best to help you!
Oh yeah, and LONG RANGE:
Sunday, December 14, 2008
1. The start of the new week will bring more warmth and rain
2. The mid-week to end of the week will bring seasonable conditions with very little snowmaking opportunities. Some rain and higher elevation wintry precip is possible, although nothing to get exited so by any means.
3. Around the 20th a storm will come up the coast and could be very impressive. The only problem is the cold air is lagging behind the storm and may be mostly a rain event with snow showers on the back side.
4. After that storm moves through cold air will be put in place for the Christmas break allowing for much needed snowmaking for the resorts. Maybe we could get some snow out of that cold but considering this pattern we may have to wait till January...
This week is going to be a difficult one for me to do updates, but if the long range changes I will let you know ASAP!
Friday, December 12, 2008
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Well one thing seems for sure about this storm system coming up the coast as I write this. The models busted, all models except the European which has been doing fantastic this year. Some colder air will come down into our area later tonight changing the rain to freezing rain, then to sleet, and then to snow mainly across the highest elevations. Don't expect much in the way of accumulation though, it seems as if this pattern we are in has both cold and storms but they do not coexist at the same time and place. This may be a view of what is to come until the pattern shifts in January.
I'll update later tonight with model runs.
Monday, December 8, 2008
After this storm it looks like we will see a 4-6 day warm up followed again by colder air for the holidays. Check back in for updates all week long!
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Well, as I thought, they pushed back their opening date to the 13th which should be actually be an AWESOME opening because north and south should open with ample terrain! Snowmaking will resume Friday and go non stop through the weekend and some natural snow will fall adding to the base for opening day! It's going to be an amazing December with trails rising quickly.
There is nothing major to talk about snow wise right now as cold air will dominate the region but for Friday a front will passing through and some of us above 1,000 feet may pick up some minor accumulations adding to the 6-14 inches we have already had so far this season. At lower elevations and dusting is possible. As for Sunday of this weekend a clipper system will come through and could also put down a few inches at the highest elevations but overall lower accumulations, although I have seen these storms explode at the last second upping the snow amounts.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
For one, our storm Sunday was mostly rain with a high temperature of 34! That's a close call and I must say, I didn't see that coming. Interestingly enough that storm tracked way out to our west and brought up more mild air (though still below average) for early week but the cold air is building across the north and will come through this weekend. This will allow snowmakers to go on full blast adding to the snow made back in November and this will allow for the resorts in our area, including Mountain Creek to open for the second week in December.
Besides frontal systems, some lake effect, and clipper systems (which will dominate this month) I don't yet see any potential threat for major snow. Most of our snow comes from coastal storms or "Nor'easters" but the cold will over our region will make any system go off to our south. We need slight break from the cold this month to get a big storm, I do believe December will still be cold and stormy, but will it be snowy?
I will update later tonight or tomorrow if I get a chance! Feel free to comment the blog or email for any questions. Later!
Thursday, November 27, 2008
In the longer range, we remain below average temperature wise and VERY stormy. Some models aren't showing the extreme cold that the Euro is showing but I believe snow making will continue during the night time hours next week and with shots of arctic air coming down every now and then allowing for some daytime snowmaking as well.
THE BIG QUESTION: WILL CREEK OPEN DECEMBER 6TH?
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Friday, November 21, 2008
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Now I give a 55% chance of happening right now cause I would like to see the short range models catching onto this as well. Check back for more everyday!
P.S. The long range looks AMAZING!!! December is going to be the peak of the ski season! :)
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Now I live at 1,000 feet in elevation here in Netcong and the highest point at Mountain Creek is around 1,500 feet with the lowest being 440 feet, both at Vernon peak. For those of us who ski and board MC it has one of the lowest base elevations in the east, and actually in the entire continent! It's more like a valley that was carved out by glaciers 10,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age and doesn't have enough elevation to get some serious snowfall during the winter months. Elevation means everything and thats something that MC just doesn't have, but what they do have is one of the most powerful snowmaking systems in the region to make up for the natural snow deficit. The average snowfall here is around 65 inches per season which is not the lowest but one of the lowest averages for an east coast resort as well. But with all the disadvantages the resort has it still manages to provide 1,000 feet of skiing and riding every winter as well as the biggest terrain park in the east. That's one thing nobody will take from us, it's ALL JERSEY :)
Now I'm sure your all sick of me ranting so let's talk cold and SNOW!? Well this week will struggle with highs trying to near freezing or slightly above but a another cold shot comes in for Saturday with 510 thickness values! For those of you, which is most you, who don't know what the means basically it means a high temperature of around 25 degrees which may in fact be a record low for November I'll check on that one. We won't go above average for the rest of the month and even December will remain that way for the foreseeable future. The cold is here to stay and it's not going anywhere. Atleast not till the first week of January :(
Well, furries are possible all week long so don't be surprised to even get a dusting on some mountain tops, like Mountain Creek, Highland Lakes, Hopatcong, Netcong, Mount Olive, West Milford, Montague, Sparta, Sunrise Mountain, and other places over 1,000 feet up. You are the "snow" zones of New Jersey averaging more than anyone else, so never be surprised if you get unexpected snow. I'm not very concerned with little storms though, what I want is one that let's me take out the snow blower (if I owned one). I'm very surprised about what the models are saying for the start of next week Monday and Tuesday. (Click for bigger images on any of them)
The Candian is showing a nice band of snow over area!
The JMA is also hinting at a little snow too!
And so is the NOGAPS but nothing much at all...
Now it's still far out and the models have not be very consistent yet on the storm. The one problem is going to be the exact path. The snow band will be a narrow one and it could either happen over the shore, our area (Mountain Creek), or just north of our area. The Euro here most likely favors the shore but things can change. If the snow band does occur over our area then expect 2-4 inches of nice fluffy snow but I'm only giving a 30% chance right now until more data and model runs come out. KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR MORE EVERYDAY!
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
The current temperature in my town is 24.4 with 20% humidity and that makes for some fantastic snowmaking conditions at Mountain Creek and I can almost make a bet that those guns are on right now covering the trails in a coat of white. For tomorrow the national weather service is forecasting a high temperature of 36 degrees, but I don't buy it. There is no way we are going to get above freezing, and I find it hard that we are going to even get out of the 20's which means the snowmaking should be able to stay on straight through the day Wednesday!
A reinforcing shot of cold air will come down for the weekend most likely making Saturday the coldest day of the season thus far with temperatures having a hard time breaking the mid 20's for HIGHS! A brief warm up will begin to move in for Thanksgiving, but that won't last long as another shot of cold arctic air will pour into the region during that weekend. While there may be brief warm ups here and there, we are in fact in the middle of cold weather pattern which according to analogs years, suggest a cold snowy December. The analog year that long range forecaster Joe Bastardi with accuweather is looking at is none other than the 95-96 winter, and we all known what that year was like.
So far there are no impressive snowstorm on the maps although there is a hint of storm during the Thanksgiving weekend with the return of cold air, check back for more updates everyday!
Monday, November 17, 2008
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Now remember this model is on it's own right now. It's the only one showing a storm but more model runs come out at 18z and if anything comes up expect a post. Chances of this event are still very low around 5%
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Sun: Sunday will be a transition day as it will be turning windy and the temperature during the day will be comfortable in the 40's.
Mon: As the cold front comes through the highest elevations in Northwest Jersey will be seeing the rain changing to snow and some areas may pick up a nice coating at the highest mountain tops.
Tue: As of the 00UTC run of the models we should go below freezing Monday night late and won't rise above that 32 mark with some lake effect snow flurries and squalls in the area. High point ridge and the mountains in eastern Sussex and western Morris may pick up light accumlations.
Wed: The cold will begin to moderate Wedneday but just as it starts to pull out a re-inforcing shot comes down out of Canada dropping temperatures even more.
Thu: With the colder air coming down a clipper system may also come through the area very quickly and once again the highest elevations above 1,000 feet may get light accumulations, which is a frequent occurance this time of the year and expected.
Fri: I may have gone a little colder with the temperatures than most people but based on the lastest models and some personal instinct this forecast is generally for the higher areas in Sussex. Snowmaking at the resorts would now have had 4 solid days of snowmaking.
Sat: Yet another cold shot of air comes into the area and the expect low may be a record breaker for that date but this would be day 5 of none stop snowmaking and would most likely allow for the earliest opening of Mountain Creek ever.
Longer Range: After Saturday the forecast get's harder as some serious systems are on the maps but it seems likely that the cold weather will stick around for the rest of the month and will make November yet another month will above average snow and below average temperatures.
-Student meteorologist Darren Milliron (Kean University Department of Meteorology)
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Besides that major nor'easter it seems likely that northwest Jersey next week will get some lake effect snow squalls and areas over 1,000 feet could pick up between a dusting-2 inches of snow which is really nothing major. With cold air in the area clipper systems will be coming down out of Canada which will also bring snow mostly to the higher elevations and away from the coastal areas. One thing for sure is that we are being tossed into winter and the rest of November starting Monday will be 8-15 degrees cooler than average.
Here is the snowstorm for the 24th. It's only eye candy so don't take it to serious.(Click for bigger image)
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Check out this run of the GFS, it looks more like mid January than mid November. (Click for bigger image)