Ok, now that the European, GFS, and DGEX weather models are all in agreement with cold air coming into the United States on the 18th of November I must say it lifts my confidence to around an 80% chance of occuring. One might ask themselves why I care about cold air and thats easy. First off I am a snowboarder and Mountain Creek in Vernon NJ needs a wet bulb temperature of 27 degrees in order to make snow and the cold air coming into our area is going to be FRIGID!!! It's not polar air, but it is actually true arctic air moving into the region and I wouldn't be surprised if record lows are set all throughout the central and eastern portion of the country. The current trend shows the temperature falling below freezing late on the 18th and may not recover above freezing for a week or better, it really looks to me like a deep freeze we would normally see in January. This cold air not only comes into our area the NAO will negative creating blocking and locking that cold air into place and that might go straight into December. Next week Mountain Creek in Vernon NJ will turn on the snow guns (if they are smart) and have a record opening date of all time. (Below are the GFS, EURO, and DGEX, click for bigger image) Note how the thickness values over us are equal to those in the arctic.