Friday, November 7, 2008

Early Ski Season Ahead!

Well being from New Jersey the closer ski resort to me is Mountain Creek in Vernon NJ. It's a decent size mountain for Jersey and this blog is for those who want to know when it will open! And it may surprise you.

Ok first of all we need to look at the NAO and AO, we want the AO to be negative to allow for cold air to pour down out of the arctic and a negative NAO to keep the cold trapped in the eastern part of the country and allow for a snowy pattern. These update daily but the trend seems to be looking good and the GFS seems to agree...

So now that the oscillations look to be in agreement what are the models showing? Well the cold air seen below pulls into our area around the 18th of November and yes, Mountain Creeks snow makers will turn on by the 19th of the month. (Click all images for bigger verison)

Well that didn't really impress me, but the cold air really starts to pull down out of the arctic and highs only in the 20's and maybe even TEENS pull into the region. This is most certainly record breaking cold air and will stick around for atleast 7 days of none stop snowmaking!
Considering these models are correct I can see how Mountain Creek opens November 28th with the most terrain ever for an opening. Now remember this is based off ONE model which has been consistent in showing this arctic outbreak of cold air. The DGEX, EURO, and Canadian models are still a day or two away from catching onto this and then I will know for sure. I am not saying this will happen for sure yet, but, if it does, then it will be the earliest Mountain Creek has ever opened in it's entire history. I will update when the other models start to forecast for the event, but if this is showing the general trend for the rest of the winter than I would say it's gunna rock!

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