Thursday, November 27, 2008

The storm....

Tuesday the weather models were showing a nice storm coming up the coast and bringing us our 2nd major snowstorm of the year, but Thanksgiving brings a new solution. The GFS model originally showed rain coming up the coast with some snow west of the mountains and the Euro was showing a nice snowstorm for our area. The Euro has been 99% accurate this season so far but it looks like the GFS was right, which seems odd to me.

Here is what the NCEP models are saying: (Click for bigger image)

And the Euro model: (Click for bigger image)
While most the models are showing rain, and a lot of it, things can always change but the prospects look dull. I will be staying up late tonight to see what the 00Z model runs show, so if anything changes I will post again!

In the longer range, we remain below average temperature wise and VERY stormy. Some models aren't showing the extreme cold that the Euro is showing but I believe snow making will continue during the night time hours next week and with shots of arctic air coming down every now and then allowing for some daytime snowmaking as well.

I have been asked this so much and personally, I thought they would have been able to open this weekend. I had 156 straight hours of "good" snowmaking conditions at my house last week where the wet bulb temperature didn't get above 25 degrees. I don't have very much expierence with snowmakers (Yes I do have some) so I really am not one to say. If this storm comes in Monday with the rain that only gives Creek a few days of cold to work with and then they need to groom the slopes. I don't think they are going to do it. The 12th or 13th seems to be when they will be able to open and that's a good 80% chance, but the chance of them opening the 6th is only around 10%. Maybe they can do it, but I doubt it, they have a too limited time frame.

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