Saturday, January 24, 2009

What the heck

I cannot believe it. The models are ALL over the place with the storm. In fact, I have no idea which day it is coming! Just between the 27-31st, that's all I can really say. No two models are saying the same, for example the GFS has a snowstorm(big surprise), DGEX has a snowstorm for the south, Euro shows nothing, Canadian shows rain storm, UKMET has no idea whats even going on, and I the weather guy know whats wrong.

The models do millions if not billions of calculations and has a lot of physics with them. Since the storm is now relatively "medium range" out then the calculation part should not be too far off, unless the physics is messed up. The models are not use to having two branches of the jet with very cold air to the north and very warm air to the south, it's confusing them all, even the Euro that I talk to highly about. Now that's where the meteorologist comes in (that's me), and that's when I refer to blocking patterns such as the NAO and AO. Below is current blocking patterns over the northern hemisphere which is not too prime for any development of storm systems in the east, let alone snowstorms. Things can change though...






















Below is the storms tracks of the past 30 days. As you can see, they either went off to our south, to our west, to our north, or to our east. THAT'S every direction it can possibly go! But there was a few that tracked to our favor. I don't see how this trend is going to just stop, in fact it should continue for the rest of the season.
If I had to give this snowstorm a percentage to hit us, it would be a at 30% right now. But with a southern jet present any storm that comes will have ample moisture to work with and someone is gunna get dumped on, let's just hope it's us? Ok?

2 comments:

chris said...

Calling for snow on Wendsday

Darren Milliron said...

Yeah, let's hope these computer models don't mess with our emotions.....