Saturday, November 5, 2011

Winter Outlook 2011-2012

This winter outlook is much shorter than ones in the past because I already post a blog which I called my pre-winter forecast. That goes more into depth into the main reasons behind my thinking and you can check it out here: Pre Winter Forecast
This is the first time I have ever done a winter forecast already having a major snowstorm behind us so I will be including that event into my snowfall prediction. Let's start off with the projected winter season temperatures:

The map above does show the heart of the cold this winter over the upper mid west and great lakes region. This will result in some major lake effect snow outbreaks and a storm track that brings the snowiest conditions to the Appalachian Mountains. The early part of the winter willcome with much colder than average temperatures and above average snowfall right up to the holidays. During the heart of winter there may be prolonged periods of ridging over the east which will help to bring the average winter temp up to just below average.

Forecasted precipitation from average:

Unfortunately for Texas the drought will continue through the winter months as the northern tier gets their fair share of precip. The lakes region will end up well above average associated with the lake effect snow events.

I promised a short winter forecast this year so I don't put everyone to sleep so here is my project winter snowfall forecast for the area:

(**Just a note on snowfall. Just one snow event can drastically alter the accuracy of this map and it's not easy to forecast snowfall within a ten inch range. Last years map was bust on eastern sections mainly because of nearly 30" of snow during the post Christmas blizzard)

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