Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Short - Medium Range Forecast

My lack of blogging this winter is an indication of very little action going on weather wise. In my last blog I did forecast these most recent cold snaps and also predicted that we would receive very little snow in the forecast period. Since then the NW corner has received under 1" of snow for the month of January. We do have two chances to increase the monthly total in the coming week, but after that it looks like the last week of January could bring warmer temperatures.

First let's get into the clipper system for Thursday. It will produce a few snow showers as it moves on through but with little precipitation to show for it. The system does start to intensify as it gets out over the ocean but too late to give us any meaningful snowfall. Most places will receive very little snow with some lucky folks who get an inch in a heavier batch of precipitation.

Thursday's Clipper: 12z NMM

The second event occurs on Saturday, which could give us the first significant snowfall of meteorological winter!? It almost certainly starts as snow but midway through some models suggest a change over to wintry mix which would reduce snow totals down drastically. Other models like the GFS suggest we stay all snow (just barely though).

Above is the 18z GFS MSLP map and atmospheric profile. In this model the storm stays all snow north of I-80 and west of I-287 putting down 3"-6" inches. There is still a certain amount of uncertainty with this storm and it needs to watched for slight shifts in the exact track. As of right now all indications point toward an accumulating snow event with possible change over to wintry mix. Check back for more on this storm tomorrow.

Just to see how this winter is shaping up I made a chart comparing the last three winters up to January 18th for Netcong NJ. Numbers are well behind in days below freezing and days of snow cover yet only a few inches shy snowfall wise thanks to the October snowstorm.

**Check back for the long range forecast and update on Saturday's storm tomorrow.**

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