Saturday, October 25, 2008

Could it be our first snow?

Well depending on where you live in North Jersey this week could bring the first snowfall of the season. There are two possible events which could give us snow but I highly doubt that it will be enough to accumulate or even stick to the ground. Let's check it out...

The first and most likely chance is that Sussex, North Warren, and Western Morris counties have the greatest chance here. Lake effect snow will be going on to our west and there are some very good chances that some lake effect snow flurries and snow squalls will hit our area, they could be very scattered and random so don't be surprised to see the flakes! The counties east of the main area don't have much of chance since the lake effect rarely ever makes it over the mountains.

Now on to more interesting weather. The second chance is actually a coastal storm for Tuesday which some models like the NAM and EURO are hinting at but the GFS just won't. This is what the NAM and EURO look like as of now: (Click for bigger images)

The NAM is showing the storm forming off the east coast but not really getting into our area.

The Euro is showing a more aggressive approach with a negative tilt trough and some nice snow coming into the area.

And the GFS isn't showing much of anything other than cold air and lake effect:

Now remember this is speculation based off of what the models are saying. I am not saying it's going to "snow", I am simply saying there is a chance based off of model output. It's model hype and not always accurate.

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