Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Winter's Revenge (Part 3)

Well winter is back, again. The last system brought some "decent" snowfall to the higher elevations with 4.7" in Wantage, 3.8" in Lake Hopatcong, and 2.8" in Randolph. Places in lower elevations received less like Newton with 1.8". Season totals across NW Jersey are around 50" with more toward the eastern sections and we should break 60" on average by the time the snow season is over with.

Let's talk about tomorrow system. First off elevation will be KEY in this storm as the surface temperatures will be too warm to support all snow in places below 500 feet. Other than the surface conditions the upper air looks great to support wintry precipitation. Take a look at this sounding off the 12z NAM:
The yellow shows the freezing line and the blue lines (temperature and dew point) remain below that point except at the surface. This is for Newark and indicates snow and rain making it difficult to accumulate. Heavy bands of precip will help to cool the surface layer for brief periods and allow snow to accumulate in those areas. Now let's look at the sounding for Sussex County:
NOW this is an all snow sounding for the whole event since the temp remains below freezing all the way to the surface.

Since we confirmed snow for the entire event let's check out how much precipitation will fall inliquid form. It looks to be around an inch for the area, which typically equals 10 inches of snow in the winter but it's spring. So figure 5"-8" in the areas that remain at or below freezing.


The snow map:

It going to be a decent storm by March standards. Of course if you have any questions or comments you can comment below, email me, or find me on facebook. Have a safe commute tomorrow!

P.S. Next snowstorm is already on the maps for early week:

No comments: