Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Is It Time For Snow Already?

Let's get this straight. Some computer models suggest a storm moves through Thursday and brings our area mostly rain with a potential change over on the back side for parts of Sussex County. Personally I think the precipitation will end just before the cold air advances, essentially only bringing us a chilly rain event. Now currently there are two models that suggest a second system will ride up the coast and throw nearly an inch of liquid precipitation into cold air (this includes the entire state). Let's take a look at these models:

JMA (Japanese Model):

Okay so the model above shows high winds and nearly 20" inches of snow across New Jersey, which I do not believe. This model always has an issue with predicting total QPF (total precip) but the physics in the model seems to be somewhat trustworthy. The blizzard depicted above is not very likely, but it does help support the idea of some kind of snow event.

ECMWF (European Model):

Above is the snowfall forecast for hour 105 and it's only a three hour increment. The total snowfall predicted by the EURO is 6"-10"! This model has been consistent for the past several runs, something that meteorologists look for when analyzing model output. Also the EURO is known for having better physics in the model than most others.

So far no other models have gone to this idea, instead they just pass off the storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast. As of right now it's too far out for making any kind of calls, but check back tomorrow as I will be posting on the very latest model output and give you my personal opinion.

P.S. Winter Forecast should be out by the weekend

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