Thursday, October 27, 2011

It's Snow Time!

Well, the chances of it snowing look pretty good for the area. Actually, I would say it's almost certain at this point. The european model was the first to catch onto the system and now most operational models are showing the same scenario. The only question is how much snow will fall?

Let's take a look at the latest GFS:

Essentially all models are showing this now with the exception of the NAM. It will probably catch on by the 18z run time. Basically we just need to know how much liquid precipitation is forecast and translate that into snowfall amounts. The GFS forecasts around an inch liquid for Sussex County, so that would mean around 4"-10" inches of snow! It's a large range because lower elevations *will* get less snow than the higher terrain because the temperature factor.

Take a look this sounding for Sussex County:

Any forecasts you see of rain/snow/mix are completely inaccurate. This storm will bring all snow to the area with no mixing. Nothing even suggests such a thing so I'm not sure what those forecasts are about. Anyhow, the sounding above shows there will be no warm layer inversion so it's either rain or snow. No sleet or freezing rain thank god! High temperatures forecasted by NWS are in the mid and upper 40's! That's wrong. When the precip falls (especially heavy) it will cool the atmosphere and temps will struggle to rise above 32 degrees in the higher terrain and 35 in valleys!

I still need to make a snow map. It will be out tomorrow.

P.S. It looks the rain today may end as a brief period of snow in some spots around 00z!

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