Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Here Comes More Snow!

This storm has given me a really big head ache. North West Jersey is right on the boarder line of getting a good solid cover of snow or getting shafted. This was one of the hardest forecasts I ever worked on but I think I have it all figured out. Check out the NAM for 18 hrs out, which is sometime tonight after the evening commute.

Just looking at the model is impossible to tell the precipitation type. Up until this point its rain but let's look at the sounding for the same hour.

Im actually surprised but it shows a snow sounding with no questions asked. It is a fast moving system and hour 24 on the models the back has already pulled out of the area. This leave us with about a 6 hour window of snowfall tonight.

(Hour 24)

Now let's look at the QPF (total liquid precip) that falls as snow.
It has most of north Jersey in the 0.75" - 1.25" range. Now take in consideration a warm ground, a wet surface from rain, and only marginal air temps. The liquid to snow ratios are going to be pretty low meaning a wet heavy snowfall. Elevation will help in this storm but more importantly is your location west. After hours of being a computer nerd this is what my snow map looks like.

Of course a slight shift in the current path of the storm could either give us more in the way of snowfall or leave us with very little. But it does looks as if western areas get the most either way.
***** SNOWMAKING UPDATE*******************

I want to talk a little about the snow making potential at local ski resorts. It looks like the guns will be on this weekend but unfortunately only at night and morning and only a total of around 18 hours of a wet bulb of 27 or less. Not enough by any means for the resorts to open. After this cold shot its back to above average and in my personal opinion the local resorts won't open until Christmas day or so.

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