Friday, December 16, 2011

Simply An Update

Well now that the past storm is long forgotten it's time to move on. I forecasted the snow totals way too high needless to say. Highest amounts where High Point with 2.5", Budd Lake with 1.0", and 0.5" from multiple locations. I was thinking about 3"-6" for the immediate area but the surface layer held too warm for too long and gave any accumulating snow a difficult time. Places higher in the Poconos received up to 6" and the Catskills 8". In the end elevation was key with that storm, something Jersey really doesn't have much off...

Now let's move on to what we are all waiting for...


To put this years "winter" season in perspective for everyone let's compare it to last year. It was colder and much snowier right? That's what everyone keeps telling me but as of this date last year we received only 0.75" inches of snow fall. So far this year we are at 10"-18" inches. Last year cold air came earlier and Mountain Creek opened by the second week of December, but this year it will open the third week. That's just one week! So the ski resorts are delayed slightly, I've seen worse.

First off there is a chance for some snow flurries this weekend as a weak clipper system moves to our south. Nothing to get excited for but it's snow. After that another storm rides up the Appalachians by the middle of the week and brings us just plain old rain and temperatures back into the 50's for highs.

Just a few days later, on Christmas eve, the models suggest another storm:

If there are any storms in the future capable of a major dump of snow it will would be this storm. Forecasted a week from today it has the classic high pressure to the north and winds from the north northeast, the tropical moisture, and plenty of cold to tap into. If a storm does form in this type of pattern it will be a complete bomb. And by that I mean rapid pressure drop and heavy snows. For now we need to watch this closely. If all these ingredients can come together just right we have a good shot of a White Christmas.


Mountain Creek was able to put out some serious snow with the past cold air outbreak but it just was not enough to open. This weekend forecasts are calling for highs in the upper 30's and low in the mid 20's. Just yesterday they forecasted to be in the 40's and low's in the upper 20's. The reason? The online forecasts are adjusted to climatology and personally that just doesn't work. Saturday for example should only get to 32 for a high and 21 for a low. Sunday's high will only be 29 and the low near 17. This means a solid 48 hour snow making period and means they should have enough snow to open by Friday, and if we are lucky maybe some natural snowfall?

This weekend:

Check back for more updates. May the weather be with you!

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