Snow Is Moving In

The system that will bring us accumulating snowfall is currently over the mid atlantic this morning and heading northeast. Classic warm air advection snow when the warmer air over rides colder air and eventually wins the fight. It will start as snow in all areas and eventually turn to sleet as the warm air wins the battle in the between 900 and 800 mb.

Snow sounding from NAM after 0.25"-.50" liquid equivalent

Sleet sounding from NAM

Freezing rain to rain soundings from NAM toward end of event

 

Very simple forecast up to this point in reguards to precip type. The big question is how much snow will accumulate and where. We have a issue with the models on this as the NAM shows a swath of 3"-6" over north jersey while the GFS is shifting the heavier precip south where it will fall as a mix bringing max snow totals around 3". At this point the GFS seems to have initalized better in reguards to current conditions over the mid atlantic. 

 I feel as if a mix of the GFS and NAM would be a safe and more accurate forecast than choosing one over the other and making a critical error in forecast amounts. 

My map (not including ice amounts)

That's it for now. More snow could be on it's way in the coming days but it seems like a small event. Till then, enjoy.