Sunday, September 9, 2007

Winter 2007/2008 Outlook


The blog will contain two parts. The first will be the Old Farmers Almanac prediction and then my prediction for the winter season. Mine will be a general overview and explanations why it will be the way it is. The Almanac will go day by day telling you what the weather will be. Last years Almanac was almost completely wrong but other years it was right on. The Almanac is up to 80% correct!

THE OLD FARMERS ALMANAC- (Northeast only sorry)
1st-3rd. Wet weather in New England. Farther south, scattered showers, thunderstorms Labor Day holiday.
4th-7th. Fair, pleasant.
8th-11th. Hurricane threat for Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. Thunderstorms sweep in from west, then clearing.
12th-15th. Fair skies.
16th-19th. Rain, then turning fair, coolers.
20th-23rd. Fair skies persist.
24th-27th. Thunderstorms rumble rapidly across region, then clearing, cooler conditions.
28th-30th. Fair skies, then scattered rain showers.

1st-3rd. Mostly fair.
4th-7th. Dry, windy weather.
8th-11th. Strong disturbulance sweeps east, with heavy rains for mid atlantic states. Stormy with gale-force winds (39 mph +) along New England coast.
12th-15th. Showers reach NY, Penn, and Northeast, accompanied by milder air.
16th-19th. Dry, milder, especially New England.
20th-23rd. Severe thunderstorms move in from west, then clearing, unseasonable cold, widespread frost.
24th-27th. Fair at first then turning unsettled.
28th-31st. Fair for trick-or-treaters.

1st-3rd. Fair skies.
4th-7th. Stormy weather developes over mid-atlantic states, early season snowfall possible then clearing, cold. Gusty wet for ING New York City Marathon.
8th-11th. Light snows rapidly sweep into New England.
12th-15th. Fair skies persist.
16th-19th. Squally condtions into mid-atlantic states, stormy New England, then clearing, much colder.
20th-23rd. Weather deteriorates by Thanksgiving. Fair at first, then turning wet, with rain mixed with snow in New England. Cold with rain Virgina, Maryland.
24th-27th. Mostly fair, cold.
28th-30th. Generally fair weather.

1st-3rd. Snow falls from the mid-atlantic states to New England, then clearing.
4th-7th. Becoming unsettled.
8th-11th. Cold and dry.
12th-15th. Another snow storm, with significant accumulations as far south as Maryland and Virgina. Then fair, cold weather.
16th-19th. Mostly fair.
20th-23rd. Snow from Penn, New York, to Maine. Then fair.
24th-27th. Dreaming of a white Christmas? Snow possible most areas.
28th- 31st. Stormy through New England, with a heavy, wintry mix. Rainy mid-atlantic states, then fair, cold.

1st-3rd. Unsettled. Showers in the Mid-Atlantic region, then turning fair and cold. Showers could fall on the Mummers Day Parade in Philadelphia.
4th-7th. Storm sweps through western sections of Penn, and NY, bringing gust winds and moderate-to-heavy precipitation.
8th-11th. Blustery and colder, with lingering clouds and scattered snow showers and flurries.
12th-15th. Mostly fair skies.
16th-19th. Wet weather, then turning fair and cold.
20th-23rd. Heavy snow for New England, with lighter amounts father south.
24th-27th. Most snow and flurries.
28th-31st. sharp cold front delivers snow and rain showers, followed by clearing and cold.

1st-3rd. Fair skies.
4th-7th. A sharp cold front brings gusty winds and showers of rain and snow.
8th-11th. Unsettled, with light snow and flurries.
12th-15th. Some lingering snow shower of flurries through Penn and NY into New England, then fair.
16th-19th. some snow or rain showers.
20th-23rd. Blustery and cold winds.
24th-29th. A big storm evolves out voer the ocean, perhaps giving the coast a glancing blow with some light snow, then turning fair.

1st-3rd. Fair skies.
4th-7th. Light snow or rain.
8th-11th. Showery weather possible, especially along the Mid-Atlantic region.
12th-15th. Scattered showers.
16th-19th. Unsettled weather, with mixed rain and wet snow, and gusty winds.
20th-23rd. Coastal storm brings more and precipitation for the very early Easter.
24th-27th. Shower for Virgina, Maryland to New England.
28th-31st. Yet another coastal storm! More wind, rain, and snow.


This might sound very boring to you but winter is likely to be a cold one across the northeast and this is because of a La Nina out in the pacific and we are at the end of the 11 year solar cycle, this mix with the right phase of high latitude blocking (NAO) spells coastal storm after coastal storm. Last year looked like a bad winter too but a El Nino developed and the first half of the season was rather pathetic.

Weather is a big cycle and the last time we were at the minimum solar cycle (95-96) NYC had over 80 inches of snow! That winter also dumped snow so deep in my yard here in northwest Jersey that my four foot pool was missing and the cars were blocked by 10 foot drifts! Let's see if winter makes a repeat of this great season.

This summer ended below average this year with
- 4 days of record low highs
- 4 days above 90 (way below average)
- 0 record highs
- high of 57 on 8/22 (october average)
- Science proved 1934 was hottest year ever (not 1998)
- Parts of Greenland never got above zero since last summer

I had much more of my outlook but the farmers almanac with was "unexpected" took the responsibility of being wrong off my head. Thank god. Cold weather and snowy conditions can be expected though. The artic is already losing 23 minutes a day and cooling down rapidly. Expect snow blogs to start SOON!

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