Thursday, September 20, 2007

I spy the first snow...

Well ladies and germs, the 12UTC model runs just came out and let me tell you, they spell winter all over them. In recent days you may have heard me talking about NAO and AO which are forms of high latitude blocking. If you have no idea what that is you can look at my last blog and there is a link which will give interesting information. The current forecast of the NAO (north atlantic oscillation) is showing it going into a negative phase in time for October and the same thing with the AO (artic oscillation). When these two do this during this time of the year it means low pressure and colder temperatures.

The model that just came out forecasted nearly 16 days out and I would consider all of the information that far out USELESS. I'm just letting you know that this isn't exactly what will happen but it is giving a general overview of the future weather pattern. These models below are not accurate but it is Oh so fun to look at them.

This model below is for Friday October 5th, (GFS). This shows the temperature dropping nearly 40 degrees during a cold front with a rain changing to snow event, if this happened we could have our first accumulating snowfall of the season. (remember this is REALLY far out so things can and will change)

The next model is for Saturday the 6th of October (GFS) and it is showing high temperatures in the upper 20's with lake effect snow squalls. If this happened I think the local ski resorts like Mountain Creek could test their snowmaking system out. I'm not sure if they would do so this early in the season though. I do believe the first freeze is imminent though. (remember, this is FAR out so don't hurt me if it doesn't happen)

If you really care about this stuff keep an eye on the NAO and AO, if anything changes with those two then you can bet the models will change as well. The NAO and AO can be found below, they update daily by themselves. (If you don't know, the black lines show the past record of blocking and the red lines show the forecast)

No comments: