Thursday, March 27, 2008

Nor'easter 2010?

We have had a lack of snow these past two years and I wanted to know when our next big Nor'easter is coming for us...

Last year Sussex county had between 25-35 inches of snowfall and this year was a little better with 38-48 inches of the white stuff. For New York city, that would be more than average, but just 40 miles west of NYC and 1,000-1,800 feet up these numbers are rather pathetic. Average snowfall from the past 10 year (not including the last two) is 65-80 inches over the area. But when I averaged in the past two years and got rid of the first two, it's only 57-67 inches.

Why should I be nagging with totals like that still? Anyway... I found a trend...


Great Nor'easters (for our area)

-The storm of February 12, 1983 (hit us with two feet...)

*3 years 11 months 10 days...

-The storm of January 23, 1987 (dumped up to 18 inches...)

*4 year 9 months 8 days later...

-Perfect Storm October 31, 1991 (didn't give us any snow...)

*1 year 4 months and 14 days later...

-Super storm of March 14, 1993 (dumped over 2 feet on us)

*2 years 9 months 25 days later...

-The blizzard of January 8, 1996 (dumped 38 inches at my house)

*4 years 11 months 23 days later...
-The storm of December 31, 2000 (layed down 25 inches of snow)

*2 years 1 month 18 days...

-Presidents day storm of February 18, 2003 (27 inches in Netcong...)

*2 years 11 months and 22 days later...

-Valentines storm of February 12, 2006 (27 inches in NYC...)


Order of those years goes kinda like this:

~3,4,2,3,4,2,3, (4? ) gives or take a few months, but its there!

~end, middle, begining, end, middle begining, (end?) of the season... give or take a few weeks

Which means our next storm should be 4 years from February 12th 2006 toward the end of the season. My forecast for our next big storm is the first week of March in 2010. Tell me what you think, remember, it's just an idea that I had, so think about it?


Until then, if you wanna see a Nor'easter, look at this picture, looks like a hurricane to me:

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

you were close..it was February 2010

Darren Milliron said...

I can't get anything right. lol

Anonymous said...

Only a few days away......what a scary prediction...all i have to say is way to go!