Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Let's do a rewind

Well, the models did an absolutely horrible job on Ida. So much that in one day the models showed two feet of snow, inches of rain, and clear sunny skies. This lack of understanding effects every event that comes after, because now the pattern is totally different. It's like the Butterfly Effect, and that basically means that one little thing has a HUGE effect on the world around it. After the models caught onto this the mid-month trough that was consistently being shown disappeared completely.

Now, I keep hearing people say that this is the effect of El Nino. And they are simply wrong. The El Nino (which is weak by the way) is out in the western Pacific and is going to collapse sometime in January. It's not the reason why it's been so mild, and here is why. The Arctic Oscillation pattern typically needs to be negative for the cold air to move down into the mid latitudes, the cold air will have to wait a little longer. Perhaps in time for this years late Thanksgiving.

Let's give the models a few days a catch on to the upcoming pattern. Having the remains of Ida on the grid is not helping the accuracy of the long range. We are so close...

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