Saturday, October 16, 2010

First snowfall of the 10'-11' season

Yesterday brought 1-2 feet of snow over the higher elevations in the Green Mountains of Vermont, White Mountains of New Hampshire, and the Adirondack plateau. Even snowshoe West Virginia just had their second snowfall of the season already. They were the first in the eastern U.S. to get snow two weeks ago when we had our tropical rain storm. That's right a tropical system produced snow in West Virginia, and it's actually very common for that region.

The fall color is not very good this year in terms of those vibrant hues, but it's pretty much on time now as recent rains delayed the change. I mention the leafs for a very important reason, because they can cause a problem. In this case the problem is a potential "elevation" snowfall early this week for areas above 1,000 feet. Towns like Hopactong, Mount Olive, Jefferson, West Milford, Wantage, Vernon, Highland Lakes, Randolph, Roxbury, as well as High Point ridge are the most vulnerable because of being at higher elevations. Even if these places get 2-4 inches of snow it will be a huge mess with downed trees, wires, and a traffic mess.

Wait Darren, are you telling me it's going to snow in 3-4 days from now?
It's a maybe right now. Never less, I believe there is a strong possibility flakes will be flying in air for most locations in northwest Jersey. And here is why:

Atmospheric sounding shows a possibility of snowfall across higher terrain. It's not a perfect set up by any means, and the atmosphere will struggle in the fight to let the snow hit the surface.

The latest GFS does support the idea for a snow event, but right now most operational models have the precipitation going just south of the area. If that happens, then it will not snow simple because the storm slide 50 miles south.

We need to watch the computer models very closely for the next few days. This can go either way here, but let's give it a little more time before the call is offical. Check back tomorrow for more.

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