Today is Halloween. And I can tell that from all the toilet paper that has taken the place of the leaves that are all but gone now. Leaf drop was before Halloween for the second year in a row, and those were the only two times since the turn of the century in 2000. With the exception of the 1998 winter leaves typically fell off before Halloween regularly during the 90's, and it looks as if we have entered that cycle again.
For those of you who like snow, and like to ski and snowboard, I have some good news. In the coming week places like Snowshoe, Killington, Mount Snow, Stowe, Jay, and the other snow making super powers will open for the season. The lower elevation resorts of the Appalachian foot hills like Mountain Creek, Camelback, West Mountain, and Jack Frost will be able to make snow in the coming nights. But at a foolish cost. Either way the moderately cold temperatures will allow for these places to at least test their system. It's going to be several more weeks before these places can really start pumping out meaningful snow.
Now we have a very interesting event in our future. First off is the classic nor'easter set up that will unfold over the mid part of the week. The primary coming up the spine of the Appalachians and then a secondary forming right off the coast. Unfortunately this will not provide snow, unless you live on the west slopes of the mountains from the Smokey's to the Allegheny and north toward the east shores of the Great Lakes as the first major lake effect event of the season sets up.
Okay, so obviously that's not the storm I'm getting excited for. After the rains have ended a sharp, narrow, deep trough will set up shop. With it, comes cold weather and if any precipitation falls it will in the form of snow. Note the trough in the model image below, when this happens typically the mass air cuts of from the main source and that's when it get's interesting. It's a similar situation that we had with this past winter season in the Mid Atlantic.
There is only one thing a pattern like this to do. And that is cut off and send a storm back tracking into the northeast. But where, and when is the question? A set up like this one can have rain on the northern end, and snow in the southern side. An odd idea, but it happened several times last year when the Mid-Atlantic was getting a blizzard and it was raining in Vermont and Maine.
The image above has a black arrow representing the possible path of a storm. One that could get interesting somewhere in the northeast...