Friday, November 26, 2010

It's one of those winter again...

Well yesterday went off almost exactly as I thought it would. Except the fact that parts of central PA and NJ picked up 1-2 inches of snow. The reason? A lot of upward motion in those areas produce heavy burst of snow with white out conditions. As the precipitation moved northward there was more in the way of downward vertical motion which basically killed the precipitation, allowing for only light to moderate snowfall with no accumulation. Lesson learned there on my part, and I hope NOAA, TWC, and basically everyone else learned their lesson on the power of evaporational cooling!

That's all in the past now. Let's look forward. Mountain Creek will most likely turn their system on tonight as temperature will bottom out around 20 degrees. High temperature on Saturday of around 35 will most likely force them to turn the guns off for a time until the wet bulb
temperature reaches 27 degrees. (Don't know what I'm talking about? Click here) When the humidity and temperature reach a combined "wet bulb" of 27 snowmaking is then possible. And snowmaking can go on for a couple nights in a row. But, there is a problem.

During the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame there will be a storm. And as of right now all operational models show a storm much stronger than our previous one with combined QPF(total precip amounts in liquid form) measured in inches. The issue is that the track is not a favorable one for the northeast. All the heavy precipitation that will fall will mostly likely in the form of just plain rain. All that freshly blow snow will be washed away into Vernon Valley. Now there is a slight chance of a snow burst on the backside of the system, but even that looks unlikely.

Ok, let's get that garbage out of our eyesight. The next system looks to be one in which the interior northeast gets pounded. And I consider Northwest Jersey the boarder of the interior northeast. With all the blocking patterns in place it looks to be a good set up around the 7th of December. Right now it's too far out for me to give much detail, but a nice snowstorm has to come out of the current blocking pattern we are in.

Mountain Creek will turn their guns back on 24/7 during the storm and several days after. I just hope they can blow and groom Upper and Lower horizon in just 4 days time to open the Cabriolet on time for Saturday the 11th. Beyond this it looks like trail counts will skyrocket. I hope they stock pile snow because January does not look to good.

Remember if you ever have any question, comments, or suggestions you can email me, facebook me, or just plain comment on the blog below. Enjoy your weekend, try and pray daily to the snow god "Nor' Easter" he is a good man.

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