Saturday, November 27, 2010

I'm Officially On Storm Watch

There are a lot of computer simulation models out there, but the best #1 (no debate) is the European model. Why? Well they charge a lot of money for their product which they invest in the model itself, they only run the model twice daily to better improve the initialization of the run, and it's has overall better physics incorporated within.

I've noticed a trend with this model, and I'm truly impressed. It was said that one day in the future a computer model will be so accurate that there will be no need for weather personal. Well, I hope that's not completely true but with the accuracy I've seen within this model, it's close. Sorry to NCEP but the "American" models don't even come close. And the GFS, Good For S...tuff if you ask me.

With the most recent stratospheric warming event which is basically done and over with, we can now expect some feedback resulting from that. December is going to our best month this winter hands down, and it's all because of this.

Take a good look at it. It's a stratospheric warming event over the pole. Perhaps the best one we will see this winter? This leads me into an in depth meteorological discussion, if I go overboard just comment below and I'll be happy to answer any questions you have. Have you ever heard of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)?

The quasi-biennial oscillation is something I rarely ever talk about on this blog, and that's not for the best. It's a very important part of the weather here, and crucial in long range forecasting. Back in 1883 a volcano by the name of Krakatau went off it sending ash into the stratosphere. As the ash traveled west because of the "easterly" winds the scientific community thought the winds of the stratosphere were "easterlies". Then in 1908 Berson sent balloons into the stratosphere and discovered the "westerly" winds in the stratosphere. This could only mean one thing, the winds of the stratosphere shifted direction about every 28 months. It was an atmospheric oscillation.

The resulting oscillation looks like this:

Basically remember this:

1. The "westerlies" or positive phase of the QBO means more hurricanes in the Atlantic like this year and in 2005. And fewer stratospheric warming events.

2. The "easterlies" or negative phase means weak hurricane season (last year), and more in the stratospheric warming events (like last year).

Basically what I'm telling you is that you can tell how cold and snowy and winter will be just by how bad the hurricane season is in a given year. When we have a negative QBO stratospheric warming events are much more frequent which in turn creates huge blocking patterns. The two mean cold and snowy conditions. This year it is positive which means less warming events and therefore the blocking pattern will be unfavorable for any major events.

Now, as some of you know I forecasted the February 26th blizzard two years in advance by using methods of cycles and oscillation patterns (Click here to see that blog). This year seems unlikely to have any major snow events which measure snow in feet not inches. After careful analysis, I forecast our next major blizzard next winter season in early March of 2012. I'm very confident in this forecast, and next winter will be the start of nearly a decade of brutal winters ahead similar to what happened during the 60's and 70's.

What's going to happen this winter? Check out my winter forecast for the winter of 2010-2011 .

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