Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Oh, Yes. I Busted To.

I have to admit, I was forecasting more snow than the area received. I was forecasting 8"- 18" across NW Jersey. And it ended up more like 3"-6". Very poor verification and the biggest bust in my forecasting career. I have a system of forecasting, and with this system I did it just like I would do any other. The models were clearly showing significant snowfall, and the ones that weren't were inconsistent which usually is a sign that it can't handle the data. In the end, those models, were actually catching on to the eastward shift. A shift of 75 miles that totally changed the forecast. It just goes to show that meteorology is a science that we still don't fully understand. I mean it's forecasting future events. Considering we knew days out that a big storm would form off the coast is amazing when you think about it. Thirty or forty years ago a three day forecast was a joke and you usually didn't know a storm was coming till the day before. We have come a long way, and we have a long way to go.

Now I want to discuss more future events. First off Thursday night into early Friday morning. Here are the simulated radar images from the NMM. Shows moderate snow showers lasting a good portion of the night. This could drop minor accumulations of about 1" or 2" inches in Northern New Jersey. It's not snow map worthy, but still enough to clean of the cars and clear the sidewalk.

In the wake of this clipper system cold air will arrive for the weekend. And I mean cold. In the image below you see can the dark black lines I drew showing the wind direction directly from the north. That's how our coldest temperatures here in the Northeast happen. Without a chance to modify the air comes right out of Canada over the region, instead of taking days to reach us crossing half the country. Saturday will be in the teens for high temperatures. 

Now, what about Monday. Well the models are still trying to resolve what will happen. Just take a look at this. Both models ran today and show COMPLETELY different scenarios.



Yes those are for the same hours out. As you can tell we need more time before making any kind of call on this system....

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