Thursday, February 14, 2008

Big storm on the way...

First recap of this weeks storm in Netcong:
-3.25" of snow
-.75" of sleet
-1.00" of freezing rain
-1.47" of regular rain

That's a lot of precip, and most of it is still on the ground in the form of glacial ice. That was a joke, but its like a glacier. Solid 4.00" of white ice.

On to a new storm:

Yesterday the DGEX model was showing snowstorm coming up the coast giving a nice snowstorm for the Appalachian mountains and rain for the city. The NAO was also going negative at the time which helped me believe that situation better. Current runs show a different solution which shows heavy rains from North Carolina, to the Green Mountains of Vermont, and into Maine. But on the back side of all this is the EURO model is showing a massive BLIZZARD for parts of the mid-west from Chicago north and west. Snow there could be measured with yard sticks instead of 12" rulers and snow drifts are a real possibility. I like snow more than anyone else but not if I'm not getting it! This is the mostly likely senario but....

That's right there is a but. Some models are tracking the storm a little closer to the east than others and I think that will come about in all models. The cold air mass behind the storm will push the storm father east than the models are showing. But still not in favor for us. But, yes another but, the NAO is now slighty negative and if and if it can go negative I think we have a better shot of rain changing to snow over the Appalachians. This is a possibility but chance is only around 10%. Looks like a horrible rain storm which can cause problems with the ski season, perhaps making it end sooner. I sure hope not... If anything changes I'll be here.

-Darren Milliron

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