Saturday, April 4, 2009

Cold and Snowy Pattern (IN APRIL?)

I didn't think I would be blogging about the prospects for snow until November of this year but here I am doing it again. Winter, yes winter, is making a powerful come back (by April standards) and that means freezing temperatures and yes, snow. Right now as I speak the winds outside are gusting to 35-40 mph and at 5:30 this morning a snow shower came through my town with no accumulation. It's actually normal for April, but if I see this kind of thing in May then we are in trouble...

This is winter come back #1, and it's short lived. By Sunday and Monday conditions will improve and it will feel as if spring is on! But that's only an illusion, a "April Fools" of sorts until Tuesday comes. A storm system will ride right over the Phily-NYC area and with cold air pouring in behind the system it could mean snow. This type of track is favorable for higher elevation snow in New Jersey and this a carbon copy of the October 28th snowstorm which dumped over a foot of snow in some places of Morris and Sussex counties. Check out the GFS and EURO:

By looking at these models it looks like nothing more than flurries, but unfortunately the models are having all kinds of problems and most likely will not catch on to any major snow event because it's a complicated situation. As sad as it sounds, I don't know and nobody will know whats going to happen until it's already underway. One thing is for sure though, it's going to be COLD by April standards next week, just check out what the EURO is showing: (Notice how out of place that cold air is?) You gotta get into the arctic circle to find similar thickness values!
Let's see what happens with the models over the weekend, either way, it's going to be interesting.

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