Saturday, March 28, 2009

Drought it is? Summer outlook I

With all operational models showing that it should be raining the nearest drop is hundreds of miles away and I fear this is going to be a trend for the entire spring time. Compared to most places in the world, we live in a "rain forest" if one could call it that. We need a lot of rain to support the abundant life that roam our forests, or is our forests. Actually 40" inches each year is typically amount we need to receive, but so far this year we have 3.84" with the snow melted down. Last year by the end of March we picked up 12.38" inches of liquid with snow melted down as well. We are in trouble if our "April showers" don't become "April downpours" and give us a half a foot of rain and more, which is unlikely, but possible.

Our rivers and streams which froze over completely during the coldest January in three decades did not give a clear indication with this problem. During the fall the state drained Lake Hopatcong by five feet for regular maintenance and now have closed up the dam to try and refill the lake by the summer vacation season. The problem is only .11" inches of liquid has fallen since that and the lake has only risen by a few inches. Without this lake many other lakes and rivers suffer the loss because Lake Hopatcong is the main feeder. I went to fish the Musconetcong and Big Flat Brook the other day, the only problem was both rivers should be 1-2 feet higher this time of the year. Usually the rivers are RAGING this time of the year and overflowing, but they look more like it's the middle of a hot dry August.

Now it's not "global warming" why we are not getting precipitation, in fact this happen every time a weak La Nina begins to dissipate. And according the past records it will continue till next winter when a possible weak El Nino will most likely form, and those winters are fun. People like to judge winters by how much snow they get, and most global warming believers use snowfall to prove their point. These people typically have a lack of education in the topic and just go by what they hear from Al Gore and our president. This year New York and the areas around it had a COLD winter, one of the coldest January's on record, but still snowfall was only at to slightly below average. It doesn't really matter how cold it is, but rather upper air features, oscillation patterns, availability of moisture, solar radiation, snow cover, blocking, ocean currents, and I can go on all day, but you get the point.

This drought is going to happen, unless some spectacular super storm rides up the coast bringing us record rains. And in that case we are most likely still going to see a lack rain after putting us back into drought for the summer season. I am expecting water restrictions in coming weeks as we realize that rain is going to be in short supply for most of the year. So yes summer is going to be dry, and with dry comes hot. Usually in Northwest Jersey we hit 90 or above only 3 or 4 times each summer but I can see a time in June and July where it lasts for a week or better of dry heat. I'm sure Al Gore is going to enjoy hearing about the heat over the east and how people are suffering from heat stroke, typically he wants that stuff to happen so he can put it in his PowerPoint. Of course he will never mention the coldest January in 3 decades from New York to Chicago, that would ruin his "picture perfect hot planet".

This is only Summer Outlook One, and general overview of a dry and hot summer to start, with some moderation as time goes on. I still want more time to read up on the topic and prepare a month by month forecast, then we can see how wrong I was. That sound good?

P.S. I always had a saying that "one extreme leads to another extreme thats opposite of it", and perhaps a Brutally Cold January means a Very hot July? It will be interesting to see...

No comments: