Enough of my boring rambling. Let's talk winter? First off let's look at Thursday night into early Friday morning. I can tell you now that it's going to snow, and I think most the area will see accumulation of some sort. Higher elevations towns like Hopatcong, West Milford, Mount Olive, and along High Point ridge could pick up 1-3 inches in some heavier snow squalls. I can't post a snow map on it because it's a hit or miss situation, thats how snow squalls work and it only makes them more mysterious. I'll never forget the time a few years ago when a snow squall dumped 4.5 inches of snow in Netcong in half hour while most of the neighboring towns didn't even see a flurry. (I remember how enraged my cousin in Jefferson was. Haha!) Check out the NMM model below:
As for Saturday I am sorry to say that I don't think north Jersey will even see a single flake. The storm system should go off the South Carolina coast. For those who don't know a storm system going off the Delmarva typically puts north Jersey in the "jackpot", and off Atlantic City puts the higher elevations of NW Jersey and the Poconos in the "jackpot". So it's obvious that the storm is way to far south. Here is the 18z NAM (I think it will trend more north but still miss us completely):
In the wake off the storm that went off to our south plenty of cold air will be around (the coldest of the season), which will make for great snow making conditions across the entire region. So that icy hard packed surface should turn into more of a frozen granular and PP machine groomed surface, which isn't to bad by Jersey standards. Low temps will near 0 degrees, which will probably be the coldest of the season. (If we had snow cover temperatures would easily fall into the -10 range)
Remember February and March our the snowiest months here in north Jersey. February for NE Jersey and March for NW Jersey believe it or not. The elevation plays a HUGE role in the spring time snow, just like early fall snow. And there is much more moisture that time of the year, unlike January which is typically cold and dry. Check back later in the week for updates...