Thursday, December 9, 2010

It's not our storm

Well, this blog is in response to yesterdays post. The GFS played it's usual games for day 4 out, and North Jersey will see primarily a rain event. The precipitation may start off as a wintry mix then go to a heavy rain for Sunday to end as snow on Sunday night. As of right now it does not look as if we will see much in the way of accumulation. It's just not our storm.

The good news is Mountain Creek is opening Saturday with 10 trails. At the rate they are going I wouldn't be surprised if they are 100% open by Christmas. That hasn't happened in the past 11 years I've been going there. After the rain Sunday snowmaking will resume around the clock for another week straight at least.

Creek's Forecast:

Monday: Snow Showers

High: 28
Low: 10

Tuesday: Partly Cloudy & windy

High: 15
Low: 4

Wednesday: Clear

High: 20
Low: 9

You wonder why my forecast is so much colder than any other site? That's because they adjust their forecast to climatology. So naturally it will be much warmer. For example NOAA forecasted 29 for a high today and the actual was 23, but five days ago they said 34 for today. That method of forecasting doesn't work to well in north Jersey, but it seems to work better in the city.

Not only that, but I live here in southern Sussex county. I know the weather here much better than some guy in Atlanta working for The Weather Channel or an employee at Mount Holly NWS who lives in south Jersey. In the end, my forecast it verify much better. And I think we should do a little experiment. Below I will post The Weather Channel and National Weather Service forecast for Mon-Wed of next week. Let's see who does better?

Monday- 34/11 Rain/Snow showers
Tuesday- 22/12 Partly Cloudy
Wednesday- 24/19 Scattered Flurry

Monday- 31/12 Snow showers
Tuesday- 23/11 Flurries
Wednesday- 26/14 Partly Sunny

Let the game begin...

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