Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Winter Storm Outlook

There are a lot of different weather models out there. Some are known to be notoriously bad, and others almost spot on. Let's take a look at a few of these and see which is the winning the model for our big snowstorm potential come Sunday.

1st up: GFS (Currently shows a 10"-15" snowstorm across most of Jersey)

2nd up: DGEX or extended NAM/ETA, same difference... (Similar to GFS)

3rd up: ECMWF or European model (Shows a storm going way out to sea, no snow)

I can go on for hours with different types of models. As of right now the only models showing a snowstorm on Sunday are the GFS and DGEX. They both run off of the same basics physics and computer program so I would expect them to be very similar. The odd thing is that the Euro, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET, and CMC all have the precipitation just offshore from the Jersey coastline. Let's give the models another day or so. Will the GFS come out on top? Or will it bust like it did on the last event.

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