Saturday, December 25, 2010

Merry Christmas

As of yesterday morning all operational weather models were in agreement that the storm will go out to sea (OTS). Then the GFS at 12z showed a massive snowstorm along the eastern seaboard, and NCEP/HPC said the model wasn't initialized correctly. That basically meant to ignore the model completely. Then the 18z model came out and showed a similar scenario, and that began to raise some eyebrows. By Christmas morning all models (globally) went to the idea of a major east coast blizzard. Merry Christmas!

Take a look at the 18z NAM total liquid precipitation for the event:

Now I based my snow totals on this model only, and tomorrow I will make another snow map and adjust the forecast if needed. I mainly based it off the total precip (QPF) but also included the higher snow ratios in colder western areas. For every 1 inch of liquid 15 inches of snow will fall in western sections and 10:1 ratio toward the city. Here is my snow map, and no I'm not being conservative at all.

Any shift eastward or westward on the exact track can drastically change the total snow amounts. By tomorrow morning I should have a map that I'm finally happy with.

P.S. Just like last years blizzards, a major stratospheric warming event over the arctic caused the arctic oscillation to tank at record low levels. It just goes to show how weather somewhere else in the world affect us right here at home. It reminds me of the butterfly effect

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