Friday, January 21, 2011

Arctic In Dirty Jersey...

It's January and the next three days may end up being the coldest period of this winter season. Just take a look at my official forecast for a valley location and a mountain top location.

Sussex Airport:

Tonight (1.21) - Mostly Clear Skies
Low -1

Saturday (1.22) - Partly Cloudy
High 17 Low -4

Sunday (1.23) - Flurries
High 20 Low -9

Monday (1.24) - Mostly Sunny
High 15 Low 2

High Point (1,803 feet):

Tonight (1.21) - Mostly Clear Skies
Low 4

Saturday (1.22) - Partly Cloudy
High 10 Low -2

Sunday (1.23) - Flurries
High 14 Low -4

Monday (1.24) - Mostly Sunny
High 11 Low 3

My point is that the valley locations will get much colder over night into the early morning hours but warm up more during the day time hours. The higher elevations will not have as dramatic a change in daily temperature as lower non-urban areas. Some place in North West corner will approach -15 (probably Walpack Center), and some places won't break the single digits for highs (maybe High Point or Mount Olive).

Okay, that's some cold air but we all want more snow. So far the area is ranging from 25"-35" inches across western Jersey while areas east are 35"-45" as far a season-to-date snowfall is concerned. It's kind of an odd thing but I have strong confidence that the trend will switch a few weeks down the road. Let's talk snow?

To be completely honest, I nor any other meteorologist can tell you what's going to happen just yet for early next week. The models are all over the place but one thing is for sure, a storm is coming up the east coast into a negatively tilted trough. Someone could get a blizzard.

The European model is my favorite because it favors NW Jersey for the jackpot (blizzard with rain for the city):

The Canadian or CMC or "GEM", whatever it is shows a rain storm which would wipe out our snow cover (no me gusta):

The the good old GFS is right in between giving eastern areas the brunt of the storm, again.

Other models are showing even more different solutions. The NOGAPS sends it out to sea (OTS), which is notorious in always doing that in the long range. And the JMA has no clue the storm even exists...

Anyway keep checking back. As we get closer to the event things will start to become more obvious. Pray for a massive blizzard to the snow gods...

No comments: