Sunday, January 2, 2011

Things are going to be a little different....

I want to start off by saying that the "warm up" is over, and now winter will be back in full force for at least the next two weeks. Right now northwest Jersey is right on track to get average snowfall, while northeast Jersey already is at or over their average seasonal snowfall. Yeah I know it's sad.

Let's take a look at the forecasted over the next 7 days:

The map above is typical of negative arctic oscillation, that is cold air displaced further to south. When the cold air is displaced further south a block sets up and storms will travel around the block and be sent back onto the continent instead of out to sea. This is how our region keeps getting all these blizzards! (Example below: Black line is jet stream or "storm track" and L represents a storm or low pressure system)

This January looks like it will get bitter cold at times, typical of a la nina season. In the last la nina season temperatures in Sussex NJ approaches -15 and Walpack recorded -20! A similar event this month seems likely. The good news is snow cover will return to the region!

Let's talk about our snow potential. Thursday into Friday is looking real good for accumulating and plowable snowfall. Right now it looks to be in the 3-5 inch range.



This storm is going to be blocked and end up back tracking from east to west, but in the polar jet stream. Which means bitter cold, high ratio snowfall, and very little liquid equivalent. As of right now it looks like the heart of the storm will occur over Maine to the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont where several feet of fluff will accumulate. (I'll be at Jay Peak so I'm excited)

After the quick moving and weak storm leaves the region the coldest air of the season will move in, and clipper systems will rule our weather pattern. That's it for now, and happy new year!

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