Tuesday, February 1, 2011

La Nina Shows It's Face

This storm system could be a sign that our pattern is breaking and could be changing back to the normal La Nina ways. This storm system is a classic example of what La Nina seasons typically bring. The AO and NAO have gone positive now, PNA is heading negative, and no sign of any major stratospheric warming events is apparent. Nothing now is keeping storm systems from riding up through the lakes and allowing warmer weather to come with it across the east.

The models are now tracking the storm much further to the north than yesterday, meaning snow/sleet accumulations are going to be much less and now freezing rain is more of a threat. Most areas have already had about half of their accumulation for the total event so it's less than anticipated.

The map is the two day total of snow and sleet accumulation with the higher amounts the further north you go. Now, the worst part of tomorrow is the freezing rain. All places in the snow contours will see freezing rain with the worst of it across the northern counties from Sussex to Bergen. Some of those areas can see over a half inch of ice, an ice skating rink has three quarters of an inch of ice. So literally it will be a skating rink.

After this sloppy mess expect talk of another storm for Friday night into Saturday, but the precipitation type for that is still unknown. As of now it looks wintry for most areas.

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