Thursday, December 4, 2014

Snow Outlook

Start off by saying our warm air advection event Tuesday ended up having a lot of dry air for NW Jersey. The precipitation shield split in two with the heaviest being over the Poconos and central Jersey. By the time steadier precip rates made it to our area the column was too warm, which was a worry of mine. Still some places were able to pick up a nice coating before the change over.

I want to talk about a potential Nor' Easter for early next week. And this looks to be just BARELY cold enough for snow, but I have to admit it's setups like this one that create historical events.

The GEM model really goes all out on this system. With a lack of cold air in place this causes record breaking flooding across the region. How ever this is still too far out to make any judgement, the point of showing this map is that this storm is on the maps.

The UKMET also shows this system but intensifying further north over New England.


I hate the JMA, but it shows it...

The EURO gives us a major winter storm and a blizzard over New England.

And the GFS is out in La La Land....

The GFS, NOGAPS, and extended NAM (all American models) say the storm is a no go. Yet all the other models out there say yes, and given the track record of the American models I can confidently they are garbage runs and to ignore them. In a few days they will start to catch on slowly but there WILL be a storm, question is how far close to NJ does it form and how much cold air will be available. There is nothing more I can say or do except wait for more runs to come in to track this storms path and intensity. 

Check back this weekend. Things could get pretty interesting...

1 comment:

TQ said...

Possible 'Call for Forecasts' SUN ... 07-DEC-14