Monday, December 1, 2014

Wintry Weather For Tuesday

The image below shows the start of the event for tomorrow afternoon. Plenty of cold air in this sounding and it's snowing pretty hard. Note the red line is the freezing line and the blue line is temperature.

Just three hours later we start to see the warmer air around 850 this will be the change over to sleet. So we have about a 3 to 4 hour window of snow get the accumulations. After that it's a done deal.

Just another three hours goes by and the warmer air is winning out between 950mb and 800mb. At the surface temperatures are still below freezing. This sounding shows freezing rain which will linger the longest in valley locations where the cold air gets trapped. 

Yet another three hours later the warm air has won out at all levels and it ends as rain for everyone. 

This is a very difficult event to forecast accumulations. It really depends how much snow can fall in the first several hours of the system. If it comes down heavy at an inch an hour we could get a nice surprise. Now if the storm starts off slow with dry air we may have issues getting the ground covered. This map is my best guess but confidence very low. Check back daily for updates.

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