Tuesday, December 11, 2007

The blizzard of 2007?

Ok, right away you saw the word Blizzard which defined means: "A moderate to heavy snowfall with winds over 35mph for 3 hours or more with visibility reduced to 0-1/4 of a mile." Well we haven't had anything like that since January 8th 1996, but now 11 years later (in conjunction with the 11 year solar cycle) it could happen again. Let's talk about it a little more.

Between the time frame of Dec 15th-17th a major east coast snow storm is likely to happen but who, when, where, and how much snow is still unknown at this point. I am going to explain what will happen based off of the computer models that came out at 18UTC, Tuesday night. What I am going to show you is still just a possibility and not certain, not yet so don't get your hopes up.

First thing you want to look at living the northeast is the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) which is basically just a type of weather pattern with a negative, neutral, and positive phase. Negative phase is what we look for when we expect to get cold and snowy weather. The NAO below is forecasted to get down to -1 to -2 and that is not all that common as you can see from the past couple months. According to Kocins book when the NAO hits -1 is when most the major northeast blizzards have happened, I.E. 1996, 1978, etc.

Now let's take a look at the DGEX model which is just a down graded form the GFS mixed with the ETA. I see lots of snow...

The Euro really blows up a massive storm off the coast too!

The NAM model is a shorter range model but is begining to get into the action with the big boys!

Now for the GFS model, the only word able to describe this is "waist deep snow?". Lol, get it? That's three words! Ok, that's bad humor on my part, sorry. Well, perhaps not. It is showing some warmer air coming into the air which will allow for a period sleet but still a lot of snow, things can and will change...

Uncle Nor'easter is coming for you!

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