Friday, December 14, 2007

Light at the end of the tunnel?

Ok, so we got ripped off on Thursday, no big deal. Right? The upper regions of the atmosphere were just to warm to support snow over most of Sussex county and almost all the precip fell as sleet. With the NAO nearing -2 there will certainly be a Nor' Easter developing off the coast of Virgina and moving to the northeast. I hate to say this guys but once again I think the upper atmosphere will not be able to support snow and it will fall as sleet, freezing rain, and maybe a little snow to begin and end with. Sorry guys, I feel the pain too.

The fact of the matter is the storm has now tracked way out to the great lakes and then the seconday will form off the coast but by that time to much warm air will be around for accumulating snow. I have a feeling this is an indication of what will happen the rest of the season and that really upsets me. The cold air will now stay off to our west but will still provide Mountain Creek a few days to blow some of the white stuff, no single digits though, this storm meant everything...

As I look at the NAO it shows it staying negative for weeks on end and I know that is complete bull, don't fall for it. It has never stayed below -1 for more than a day or two, unlikely it will be there for weeks. Intersting thing is that if it does stay negative cold air will dominate the east for a long period of time and I know that just won't happen, cause nothing works out for me...
So what about accumulations for the storm? Don't get excited the least bit. I am staying a nice blanket of white, hard, gross, sloppy, ugly, smelly sleet and ice. Not the best thing in the world by any means. Unless by some divine miracle the snow gods decide to move this storm system some 50 miles east we don't have a change at Jersey powder. If by any strange event it did happen I would call for 8-12 inches of snow.
Whats next? The model is showing a Christmas storm! Don't get excited, knowing this trend we are in it will be sleet and freezing rain with a little snow to start and end like usual. I will keep you updated.
Check back here tonight for the snow map, you never know what could happen with the 18UTC model runs.

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