Saturday, December 22, 2007

What is going to happen next?

One thing about me is I am very optimistic and when someone tells me something negative I don't believe it! Back in October chief meteorologist Joe Bastardi put out his winter forecast. It called for a warm December, January, and into the first half of February and all could do was deny it. When October went into the books as the warmest on record (and it was) it was then followed by a November that was largely below average except for 2 days. In November southern Sussex picked up 6 inches of snow while northern Sussex picked up 8 inches during that month. And odd site for sure. December came by and brought 11 days of which we did not get about the freezing mark (32) and the average for the whole winter is 30, so we had a good head start. It also brought 9.75" inches of snow to southern Sussex making a season total of 15.75". In northern Sussex the season total of snow so far 21.75" and over two feet in the higher elevations. Not to mention winter didn't actually start yet.

Being the end of December the winter has been one of the coldest in recent memory and we are currently beating the past 10 years for season to date snowfall so far, very impressive. And not to mention 2007 will go down as the coldest year of the decade so far. Now that it is the first day of winter and we are all waiting for more snow and cold I have bad news, but maybe its not so bad?

Accuweather just put out their January forecast and it shows a warm month with very little chance of snow. Me being subborn won't go with that at all. The NAO is expect to tank again in early January and I have a feeling we will see a colder month than normal with these 2 or days of warmer temperature trends. These trends will be extreme and everyone knows on extreme leads to another of the opposite. If you want to get a good snowstorm you need to mix warm and cold air together because when the two airmasses collide with one another they create low pressure to balance them back out and bring things back to normal. Personally I see this last week of December to be a normal week temperature wise and some snow and rain will be around but nothing major, not that I see yet anyway.

The models are trending toward temps that are way to warm for any snowmaking but January could come in with a new weather pattern, one that trends with a few days of extreme warmth, then a massive system going from rain to snow, and then cold for a about week and that will repeat itself. It should be an interesting month and this is my personal opinion. And when the La Nina weakens at the end of the month winter will be in full force as the polar vortex over the artic comes down into Canada, the most of our cold and snow is still yet to come in February and March while January will not be so impressive.

Tomorrow will be my last post on potential snow until the end of the year because I will be heading up to Stowe Vermont! I can't wait :)

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