Tis' the season

Well, it has been AWHILE since my last blog posting. Mainly because the winter season ended AWHILE ago. Now I sit here looking at my window at a lot of green vegetation waiting for the hint that the season will soon be changing. This summer has yet to impress me, or anyone for that matter. Let's recap this whole year so far:

January- This month has 24 days without breaking freezing for daytime highs with the warmest day being just 42.8 degrees. The average high temperature was -8.6 degrees below the average and the coldest night in New Jersey history occurred on record where temperatures got near -20 in Walpack (That beats Mount Washington's coldest temperature this year)

February- Well the month was +0.8 degrees above average but the daytime high was -1.3 degrees below average. A lack of snow this month begun fear of a potential drought for 2009.

March- Came in like a lion with 3.3 degrees and nearly 1 foot of snow on the ground in the highlands. The average daytime high was -2.4 degrees below average and the month as a whole ended up -0.7 degrees below average. Went out like a lamb with highs near 60.

April- Snow was common in the first half of the month followed two weeks later by the HOTTEST weather of the year! A High of 89.3, that beats even the hottest day this summer so far and it snowed just two week prior. Because of the record heat wave the month was +2.5 above average while the average daytime high was -0.3 below average, even with the hottest weather of the year. In fact the 4 warmest days of the year happened from the 25th-28th, let's go over them in order by hottest:

1st- April 26th (89.3) (HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR)

2nd-April 27th (87.8)

3rd- April 28th (85.7)

4th- April 25th (84.7)

5th- July 16th (83.2) (HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER)

6th- May 22nd (83)

7th- May 21st (81.4)

June 25th(81.4)

8th-July 17th (81.2)

9th-June 26th (80.1)

10th-May 20th(79.8) (70's in the top 10?)

May- Broke 80 just twice just two days after the 19th when a frost and freeze warning were issued for Sussex and Morris County. Average daytime high was -2.4 degrees below average, the 11th consecutive month with average high temperatures that don't go above average.

June- Just shy of 8.00" inches of rain fell this month, it rained almost every single day and the average daytime high was -7.2 degrees below average. This marks one year where the average high doesn't go above normal. Only broke 80 twice with the warmest being 81.4

July- Only broke twice so far with the highest being 83. At least the rain stopped, but the cold hasn't. The average daytime high is currently -7.6 degrees below average and the month as a whole is -4.7 degrees below average (THAT'S HUGE!). Apparently it wasn't the rain that was keeping things cool, it was something else.

To make a long story short, it's a cold year. It's going to continue to be cold. And the summer will come to very fast end once September hits, and winter may come even earlier this year than it did last year on October 27th. With a weak El Nino forming, negative PDO, AO, and NAO this winter will be the snowiest in the last ten years. Unlike last year there won't be a lot of ice, and statistics says that A BIG snowstorm will hit us in the mid to late season dumping 1-2 feet of the white. Snow this year will be 150% of the average, the snow will not stop this winter. We are too long overdue now and it's coming...

I'm getting sick of winter....

Well oddly enough yesterday was very cold by late April standards and a wintry mix fell in the higher elevations of New Jersey most of the day with nothing more than a trace. This makes the snow season from Oct 27th- April 20th, but it's not over :(

As I look outside now the ground is white, but it's hail from a T-Storm that just passed. And hail IS NOT wintry precipitation, never was and never will be. Come Wednesday into Thursday cold air will move into the area and the GFS suggests snow accumulation!??? Yes, if this is right, just 20 hours from now, areas 1,000 feet and higher in NJ could get 1-3 inches of snow. Oddly enough the next day will get near 70 followed by 80's the next :0

If winter type precipitation ends up falling in May this year then I will begin a rampage on the whole global warming scam. Because it's not supposed to snow 7 months out of the year in Jersey, sorry, it doesn't happen "with all this warming :/"

Where the heck is spring?

Usually by this time of the year the grass is being cut, the trees are full of buds, rain is heavy, and warm days come often. That statment leaves most of us saying "Well why has it been freezing cold and snowy?" First off I want to mention that April is now running 3.77 degrees below the average for the month, that means we need some serious warmth to raise that number. Things should start to get warmer now and hopefully we have had our last snow and our last freeze.

Another problem is the lack of precipiation, so far our area has only picked up 0.77" inches of rain in April and only 5.14" inches all year! Last year at this time we had 15.22" inches already which makes us over 10" inches below last year! Not a good sign, and one I don't believe will be fixed any time soon.

In my previous blog I talked about how we would experience a hot dry summer, but I'm starting to think twice about that. Our sun is going through a time of very low activity and it is going to affect summer temperatures. I'm still calling for a dry summer but now I think that summer may be slighty below average temperature wise, with a shortened season, meaning fall will be quick to move in with a leaf drop completed before Halloween. That also has something to do with a dry season.

Let's see what happens. Now that winter is over my blog entries will start to become very scattered over time but keep checking back for possible trends in the 09-10 winter season? :0 yeah.... we got awhile

Cold and Snowy Pattern (IN APRIL?)

I didn't think I would be blogging about the prospects for snow until November of this year but here I am doing it again. Winter, yes winter, is making a powerful come back (by April standards) and that means freezing temperatures and yes, snow. Right now as I speak the winds outside are gusting to 35-40 mph and at 5:30 this morning a snow shower came through my town with no accumulation. It's actually normal for April, but if I see this kind of thing in May then we are in trouble...

This is winter come back #1, and it's short lived. By Sunday and Monday conditions will improve and it will feel as if spring is on! But that's only an illusion, a "April Fools" of sorts until Tuesday comes. A storm system will ride right over the Phily-NYC area and with cold air pouring in behind the system it could mean snow. This type of track is favorable for higher elevation snow in New Jersey and this a carbon copy of the October 28th snowstorm which dumped over a foot of snow in some places of Morris and Sussex counties. Check out the GFS and EURO:

By looking at these models it looks like nothing more than flurries, but unfortunately the models are having all kinds of problems and most likely will not catch on to any major snow event because it's a complicated situation. As sad as it sounds, I don't know and nobody will know whats going to happen until it's already underway. One thing is for sure though, it's going to be COLD by April standards next week, just check out what the EURO is showing: (Notice how out of place that cold air is?) You gotta get into the arctic circle to find similar thickness values!

Let's see what happens with the models over the weekend, either way, it's going to be interesting.

Drought it is? Summer outlook I

With all operational models showing that it should be raining the nearest drop is hundreds of miles away and I fear this is going to be a trend for the entire spring time. Compared to most places in the world, we live in a "rain forest" if one could call it that. We need a lot of rain to support the abundant life that roam our forests, or is our forests. Actually 40" inches each year is typically amount we need to receive, but so far this year we have 3.84" with the snow melted down. Last year by the end of March we picked up 12.38" inches of liquid with snow melted down as well. We are in trouble if our "April showers" don't become "April downpours" and give us a half a foot of rain and more, which is unlikely, but possible.

Our rivers and streams which froze over completely during the coldest January in three decades did not give a clear indication with this problem. During the fall the state drained Lake Hopatcong by five feet for regular maintenance and now have closed up the dam to try and refill the lake by the summer vacation season. The problem is only .11" inches of liquid has fallen since that and the lake has only risen by a few inches. Without this lake many other lakes and rivers suffer the loss because Lake Hopatcong is the main feeder. I went to fish the Musconetcong and Big Flat Brook the other day, the only problem was both rivers should be 1-2 feet higher this time of the year. Usually the rivers are RAGING this time of the year and overflowing, but they look more like it's the middle of a hot dry August.

Now it's not "global warming" why we are not getting precipitation, in fact this happen every time a weak La Nina begins to dissipate. And according the past records it will continue till next winter when a possible weak El Nino will most likely form, and those winters are fun. People like to judge winters by how much snow they get, and most global warming believers use snowfall to prove their point. These people typically have a lack of education in the topic and just go by what they hear from Al Gore and our president. This year New York and the areas around it had a COLD winter, one of the coldest January's on record, but still snowfall was only at to slightly below average. It doesn't really matter how cold it is, but rather upper air features, oscillation patterns, availability of moisture, solar radiation, snow cover, blocking, ocean currents, and I can go on all day, but you get the point.

This drought is going to happen, unless some spectacular super storm rides up the coast bringing us record rains. And in that case we are most likely still going to see a lack rain after putting us back into drought for the summer season. I am expecting water restrictions in coming weeks as we realize that rain is going to be in short supply for most of the year. So yes summer is going to be dry, and with dry comes hot. Usually in Northwest Jersey we hit 90 or above only 3 or 4 times each summer but I can see a time in June and July where it lasts for a week or better of dry heat. I'm sure Al Gore is going to enjoy hearing about the heat over the east and how people are suffering from heat stroke, typically he wants that stuff to happen so he can put it in his PowerPoint. Of course he will never mention the coldest January in 3 decades from New York to Chicago, that would ruin his "picture perfect hot planet".

This is only Summer Outlook One, and general overview of a dry and hot summer to start, with some moderation as time goes on. I still want more time to read up on the topic and prepare a month by month forecast, then we can see how wrong I was. That sound good?

P.S. I always had a saying that "one extreme leads to another extreme thats opposite of it", and perhaps a Brutally Cold January means a Very hot July? It will be interesting to see...

Let's recap winter 08-09

October 2008:

Well it all started in October believe it or not with our first frost on the 7th and our first hard freeze on the 20th. Then a week later on the 27th rain showers started to change over to snow which fell during the night time hours putting down just a coating. Next thing we know the temperature fell below freezing most of the day putting down 6" inches of snow in Netcong and 14" at High Point, only the higher elevations got anything measureable. If that wasn't bad enough some snow squalls on the 29th put down another 1" inch and the ground on Halloween was covered in snow at my house! We will use my town since it's right in the middle of the area I focus on.

Netcong:

Actual High: 58.1 (-4.7 degrees)
Actual Low: 39.9 (+1.9 degrees)
Month Temp: -1.4 below average
Days of snow: 3
Days of snow cover: 5
Amount of snow: 6.05"
***15 seperate records broken in Netcong


November 2008:

November was lame compared to October, not too much to talk about other than it was colder than average.

Netcong:

Actual High: 46.0 (-5.9)
Actual Low: 33.3 (+2.3)
Month Temp: -1.8 below average
Days of snow: 4
Days of snow cover: 1
Amount of snow: Trace
Days below freezing: 4
***2 records broken in Netcong


December 2008:

December was an interesting month that brought 3.16 inches of rainfall, 13.8 inches of snow, and 0.30 inches of ice!

Netcong:

Actual High: 38.2 (-2.8)
Actual Low: 23.7 (+1.7)
Month Temp: -0.5 below average
Days of snow: 11
Days of snow cover: 15
Amount of snow: 13.8"
Amount of ice: 0.3
Days below freezing: 10


January 2009:

This January was among one of the coldest on record and the only precipitation that fell was in the form of snow or ice. The musconetcong river near my house froze solid, a first for me. Parts of the area broke several records for all time cold with temperatures in Walpack NJ nearing -20 degrees.

Netcong:

Actual High: 27.3 (-8.6)
Actual Low: 13.7 (-3.3)
Month Temperature: -5.9 below average
Days of snow: 15
Days of snow cover: 29
Amount of snow: 12.7"
Days below freezing: 24!


February:

Record dry month and the only month of the "winter season" that was above average temperature wise. This can be because of the lack of snow cover.

Netcong:

Actual High: 38.7 (-1.2)
Actual Low: 20.8 (+2.8)
Month Temp: +0.8 above average
Days of snow: 6
Days of snow cover: 15
Amount of snow: 5.25
***Record driest month


March:

March is not over yet so it's difficult to give a good overview. I would have to say that it's probably right on average thus far except for a lack of precipitation, but we have had a surplus of snow. Because of lack complete data set so far temperature will not be included yet.

Netcong:

Days of snow: 4
Days of snow cover: 7
Amount of snow: 11.7
Days below freezing: 3



Overview 08-09:

The snowfall for the area ranges between 40"-55" which is about average in the lower elevations but the higher elevations usually get a little more and that is still totally possible. In fact the areas around 1,000+ average 1.2 inches of snow in April, and it's looking like that may happen. If you live below 1,000 in Jersey then it may be done for you, but some areas still are likely to keep getting the snow. (And just yesterday March 20th West Orange got 2 inches of snow!) It has been a dry winter though and the rivers and Lakes are very low, typically they are over flowing this time of the year. If April doesn't bring it's "showers" then I fear a drought will persist over the summer which is typical in weak La Nina years. I will use this information to start working on my summer forecast, so check back for that in a few weeks!

Netcong:

Days of snow: 42
Days of snow cover: 72
Amount of snow: 49.5"
Days below freezing: 48
Temp Deficit: -1.35 below average

Winter was much colder than average and snowfall was at to slightly below average (so far)

What to do?

Here is an update on the Morris Canal situation. This is what I received from an email I sent out:


"The town of Stanhope drained it to inspect the culvert under the pavement which runs past the firehouse. They had a sinkhole in front of the firehouse last year which concerns them in not being able to get firetruck out of the firehouse. Right now they are looking for funding to remove silt from basin (HPO approvals are in place as well as Land Use permits.) The section of the canal basin behind the post office needed an archeologist on site to clean out (will probably be cost prohibitive). He can contact Stanhope administrator for more info"


Now what? This could go on for months or even years trying to get funding in a state that is neck deep into debt. Environmentalist groups in NJ should know about the problem, perhaps it could help speed up the process. More updates as time goes on...