Saturday, February 6, 2010

It's our turn now

Well, the storm stayed south of the forecast area this time. I measure 0.5 of inch while areas two miles north received not even a dusting. And the same time, areas two miles south of me got 3 inches. For every two miles you drive south just add an inch each time and thats basically what fell and where. In a few more days we may be talking about yet another blizzard, this time with the heavy snow further north.

The talk of this next "blizzard" is already underway because this could yield more snow than what was seen in this past storm but puts North Jersey as a whole in the bulls eye. Now it will produce less in the way of precipitation but snow ratios will equal 30 inches for each inch of liquid. It's still several days and things can always change, for better or for worse. Here is the lastest GFS which is in agreement with all operational models.

If you look above you can see the polar vortex centered over Virginia! What is going on? Seriously, this is not normal. The area of precipitation will not move in from the south or west but come right off the ocean from the east, and negatively tilted trough basically associated in part with a strengthening NAO.

Below is the map of the total liquid precipitation of this weeks storm. North Jersey is in the 0.90-1.20 range and yes, 30:1 ratios. You do the math. Check back soon.

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