Thursday, February 4, 2010

Blizzard, but not for all...

With blizzard warnings down along the shore and winter storm warnings up everyone is bracing for a big snowstorm. Some places in SW Jersey could easily pick up 30" inches of snow and back into Washington D.C. and the Delmarva. Places in Mid Atlantic will pick up their record snowfall season of all time including the nations capital, and winter still has a lot to go. The northern edge of the storm will track over North Jersey, and the exact track can mean getting nothing or 18". Right now I'm going in between, here is the snow map below: (*Note: The wide range of accumulation amounts. Biggests totals in the range will over on southern boundaries of each interval, and minimal amounts north.)

Trust me, I don't like this map one bit. But I have a good feeling that is it relatively correct, although I may have to update it tomorrow morning. The GFS and the JMA are the ones that seem to make the most sense to me, so I'm going to side with them. Here they below:

Now that you have analyzed the maps above (you should), you notice that the storm track is off of the Virginia/North Carolina border which is not "prime" for the North Jersey. But we will be cold during the storm and snow ratios will be 20:1 while South Jersey has 10:1 ratios. If the system tracks slightly north there could be a second band of big snowfall across the northern area and in higher elevations, but a very skinny one at that. For this reason we must WATCH this closely because the amounts I forecasted could easily bust big time, and I mean they could double.

Below is the total QPF of the entire storm. Find out how much liquid falls over your area and do a 20:1 ratio if you live north of 78, 10:1 south of trenton, and 15:1 in between. What do you think? Comment!


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