Saturday, February 7, 2009

Long Range Feb-Mar

I have been working very hard on this long range outlook and I have a very high confidence level in what I am putting out. I am talking 85% worth of certainty, while it may not be day-to-day forecast, it's pretty darn close.

The Now - Feb 12th:
Well we have broken out of our deep freeze and temperatures rising into the 30's-40's will be the common day time highs and any precipitation that falls will be the form of liquid, thank the rain gods that none of that rain will be heavy, so skiing and boarding across the region will be nice soft conditions for those of you who would like to try to some new tricks.

Feb 13th - Feb 17th:

This will be a stormy period to say the least, a system will roll by on the 13th bringing with it mostly a rain event but cold air will follow the system. Now the dates to watch out for snow storms are Feb 15th and Feb 17th for some warm air advection snows, typically a 3-6 inch event but those amounts will most likely change by then. Temperatures during these dates will range for upper 20's-30's for day time highs with plenty of cold air at night for snow making. Here is a look at northern hemisphere circulation at that time.



















Feb 18th - Feb 23rd:

During this time period two to three different storm systems will be able to run up the east coast and possibly become major northeast storms. Temperatures will remain around to below freezing for day time highs so if you like snowboarding or skiing, pack powder conditions are going to be the normal.


















February 24th and beyond:

A stormy period is likely and with a negative phase of the NAO at it's strongest this time of the year it can be a big scoring time for snowstorms. The period will bring warm days and very cold days as the spring time air begins the long battle with the cold arctic air. It's so far out that it is difficult to pin exactly what will happen.


Overview:

A cold and stormy period will begin after Friday 13th and winter will kick back into full gear after a brief let up. Below is a map of the snow/cold axis. Over the winter the line has been moving east and now the I-95 corridor will finally be apart of that. We are last on winters list and that could be hurtful given the high sun angle and the transition to spring, but it could be beneficial in terms of wild storms! (The line represents the main axis of snow, not the rain/snow line)

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Like a Gypsy, I roam from weather blog to weather blog, hoping to find one that isn't written and frequented by adult men behaving like third graders who live for the next "snow day". The misery endured by the thousands who will lose power and deal with frozen pipes, property destruction, and life in a Red Cross shelter is lost on them. Hey, I hope Al Gore is right - death to winter!

Anonymous said...

Buddy, I really don't care if you think your some kind of profit or god of some sort.

If you don't like winter, move south, and stay there.

Loss of life and property destruction is way of live, and people that live in those regions are aware of it.

And if Al Gore is right hurricanes, floods, drought, and thousands of other climate problems will kill off millions. You are just a hater of winter and you need to really re think your life. Perhaps get one?

chris said...

Exactly! THIS IS PART OF OUR REGION!move out of here if you don't like it