Saturday, February 28, 2009

Powerful storm will slam east coast!

Just remember that yes, a powerful storm is coming up the coast, that is for certain. What we really want to know is who is getting what. That's the million dollar question, so let's look at what we got.

First up is the atmospheric sounding for 06z on Monday, this will tell us what kind of precipitation we will get. Looking at the model below all I can say is wow, it's most certainly snow, and very heavy at that. If you live in Northwest Jersey it's an all snow event with absolutely no chance for rain, freezing rain, and sleet. A first in some time.

Now that we determined what type of precipitation will fall, let's look at the models. First up is heavy weight champion NCEP's GFS: (Clearly showing the bulk going off the coast)

Yeah, I didn't like the GFS how about the NAM: (It's got the moisture but has it going off to sea, but is having trouble where to put the high pressure off to the north west, which is typical)

The question now is are any NCEP models showing a big snowstorm for Northwest Jersey, or North Jersey as a whole? Take a look at the NGM: (Not the most reliable model but it does show 12+ for the NJ ski resorts)

Let's take a look at the EURO and Canadian models: (Both tracking the low closer. Big snow?)

Now, I will post a snow map after the 12z models come out. I have a feeling the storm is going to track further west with high ratio snows for the higher elevations of northwest Jersey. It's going to be in the teens, windy, and with heavy snow. Perhaps blizzard conditions, or I could be completely wrong, but I don't think so. Of course a shift just 30 miles either direction could mean all the difference.

No comments: